Game Recap: STL 2, PHI 3 (OT), November 20, 2025

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Game Recap

STL2

Final/OTThu, Nov 20, 2025Every game that night

PHI3

PHI beat STL 3-2 in overtime, with the chances close: 3.04 expected goals to 2.63. J. Faulk led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). B. Schenn had 8 shots on goal against our projection of 1.3. D. Vladar stopped 27 of 29.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
STL	2	0	0	0	2
PHI	0	1	1	1	3

1st 5:31STLJ. Faulk0.02 xG
1st 12:08STLJ. FaulkPP0.15 xG
2nd 17:57PHIR. Abols0.17 xG
3rd 11:49PHIT. Foerster0.05 xG
OT 3:51PHIT. Sanheim0.19 xG

Team Stats

STLPHI

29Shots on goal28

2.63Expected goals3.04

49Shot attempts62

245v5 shots on goal23

1/2Power play0/2

25Hits24

16Blocked shots14

4Penalty minutes4

14Giveaways14

6Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

STL 2.63 xGPHI 3.04 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

STL29 on goal, 2 scored

PHI26 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

STL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Kyrou	RW	0	1	1	4	0	1	-1	0	17:58	1:38
J. Neighbours	LW	0	1	1	1	3	0	-1	0	14:13	1:08
O. Sundqvist	C	0	1	1	0	1	0	+1	0	12:20	0:00
N. Walker	LW	0	1	1	2	4	0	+1	0	10:41	0:00
P. Buchnevich	LW	0	0	0	3	1	1	-1	0	19:04	1:29
R. Thomas	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	18:35	1:32
B. Schenn	C	0	0	0	8	3	0	-1	0	18:06	1:37
D. Dvorsky	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	18:00	1:14
J. Snuggerud	RW	0	0	0	1	3	1	-1	0	15:44	1:57
D. Holloway	LW	0	0	0	0	3	1	-1	0	15:33	1:35
P. Suter	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	2	14:42	0:00
A. Toropchenko	RW	0	0	0	0	3	0	+1	0	11:15	0:00
J. Faulk	D	2	0	2	3	2	3	0	0	24:59	1:08
P. Broberg	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	0	26:07	0:09
C. Parayko	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	2	25:26	0:14
C. Fowler	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	0	0	23:15	1:49
T. Tucker	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-2	0	11:19	0:00
M. Kessel	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	10:16	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Hofer	28	25	3	.893	63:51	OT loss
J. Binnington	0	0	0	–	0:00

PHI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
T. Konecny	RW	0	2	2	2	0	0	+2	0	20:19	2:02
T. Zegras	C	0	1	1	4	0	0	0	2	20:25	1:58
T. Foerster	RW	1	0	1	3	1	0	+1	0	18:03	1:58
O. Tippett	RW	0	1	1	1	4	1	0	0	17:29	2:02
S. Couturier	C	0	1	1	0	1	1	+1	0	15:17	2:02
R. Abols	C	1	0	1	4	2	0	+1	0	10:20	0:00
C. Dvorak	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	0	18:57	0:00
N. Cates	LW	0	0	0	2	1	1	+1	0	18:17	1:58
B. Brink	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	14:57	1:58
M. Michkov	RW	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	14:56	2:02
N. Deslauriers	LW	0	0	0	0	6	0	0	0	10:16	0:00
G. Hathaway	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	9:23	0:00
T. Sanheim	D	1	0	1	4	0	2	+1	0	26:13	0:00
E. Andrae	D	0	1	1	2	2	3	+1	2	19:30	0:00
C. York	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	24:59	2:02
J. Drysdale	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	+2	0	21:03	1:58
N. Seeler	D	0	0	0	1	4	2	0	0	15:45	0:00
N. Juulsen	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	12:23	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Vladar	29	27	2	.931	63:46	Win
S. Ersson	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

STL

Line 1B. Schenn15:37D. Dvorsky15:04P. Buchnevich15:12

Line 2J. Kyrou14:46D. Holloway13:13P. Suter13:50

Line 3J. Neighbours13:05J. Snuggerud13:08R. Thomas14:17

Line 4O. Sundqvist10:56A. Toropchenko9:58N. Walker8:59

Pair 1C. Parayko23:00P. Broberg22:25

Pair 2J. Faulk21:06C. Fowler19:14

Pair 3T. Tucker10:46M. Kessel9:29

PHI

Line 1C. Dvorak17:22T. Zegras16:43O. Tippett14:54

Line 2T. Konecny15:32N. Cates14:07T. Foerster14:04

Line 3B. Brink12:23M. Michkov11:47S. Couturier11:34

Line 4G. Hathaway9:23R. Abols10:20N. Deslauriers10:16

Pair 1T. Sanheim22:22C. York20:34

Pair 2J. Drysdale18:19E. Andrae19:30

Pair 3N. Seeler14:09N. Juulsen10:46

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	STL 3.1, PHI 2.8	STL 2, PHI 3
Total goals	5.9	5
Shots on goal	STL 23.5, PHI 26.2	STL 29, PHI 28
Win chance	STL 54%	PHI won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
PHI O. Tippett	2.5	1	0.62	1	26%	0
STL J. Kyrou	2.3	4	0.72	1	30%	0
PHI T. Konecny	2.2	2	0.81	2	28%	0
PHI M. Michkov	2.1	1	0.64	0	22%	0
PHI T. Zegras	2.0	4	0.76	1	24%	0
STL D. Holloway	2.0	0	0.66	0	24%	0
PHI S. Couturier	1.9	0	0.58	1	17%	0
PHI T. Foerster	1.9	3	0.56	1	26%	1
STL J. Snuggerud	1.8	1	0.56	0	20%	0
STL P. Buchnevich	1.7	3	0.73	0	25%	0
PHI N. Cates	1.6	2	0.54	0	19%	0
PHI B. Brink	1.6	1	0.56	0	19%	0
STL J. Faulk	1.5	3	0.49	2	10%	2
STL C. Parayko	1.5	1	0.45	0	12%	0
STL P. Suter	1.5	1	0.51	0	22%	0
STL R. Thomas	1.5	1	0.94	0	22%	0
PHI C. Dvorak	1.5	3	0.52	0	19%	0
PHI T. Sanheim	1.5	4	0.38	1	9%	1
STL P. Broberg	1.4	2	0.43	0	11%	0
STL B. Schenn	1.3	8	0.57	0	20%	0
STL C. Fowler	1.3	1	0.59	0	9%	0
STL J. Neighbours	1.2	1	0.56	1	24%	0
PHI N. Seeler	1.2	1	0.23	0	4%	0
STL D. Dvorsky	1.2	0	0.29	0	16%	0
PHI J. Drysdale	1.1	0	0.40	0	9%	0
PHI C. York	1.0	0	0.38	0	8%	0
PHI R. Abols	1.0	4	0.18	1	9%	1
STL A. Toropchenko	1.0	0	0.26	0	11%	0
STL N. Walker	1.0	2	0.30	1	14%	0
PHI E. Andrae	1.0	2	0.14	1	2%	0
PHI G. Hathaway	0.9	0	0.21	0	11%	0
STL O. Sundqvist	0.8	0	0.33	1	10%	0
PHI N. Deslauriers	0.8	0	0.11	0	6%	0
PHI N. Juulsen	0.7	0	0.10	0	2%	0
STL T. Tucker	0.6	1	0.16	0	5%	0
STL M. Kessel	0.5	0	0.13	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 18 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.