Game Recap: STL 4, SJS 5, March 30, 2026

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Game Recap

STL4

FinalMon, Mar 30, 2026Every game that night

SJS5

SJS beat STL 5-4, and the chances backed it up: 3.01 expected goals to 2.11. M. Celebrini led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). K. Sherwood had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.2. Y. Askarov stopped 22 of 26.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
STL	2	1	1	4
SJS	3	1	1	5

1st 5:28STLT. Lindstein0.04 xG
1st 8:30SJSA. WennbergPP0.16 xG
1st 13:25SJSM. CelebriniPP0.12 xG
1st 16:39STLP. Buchnevich0.06 xG
1st 19:04SJSM. Celebrini0.15 xG
2nd 10:13SJSA. WennbergPP0.32 xG
2nd 19:34STLP. BrobergPP0.15 xG
3rd 12:53STLC. FowlerPP0.03 xG
3rd 19:38SJSA. Gaudette0.07 xG

Team Stats

STLSJS

26Shots on goal29

2.11Expected goals3.01

52Shot attempts55

215v5 shots on goal21

2/3Power play3/4

15Hits18

15Blocked shots15

8Penalty minutes4

11Giveaways11

1Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

STL 2.11 xGSJS 3.01 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

STL26 on goal, 4 scored

SJS28 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

STL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Neighbours	LW	0	2	2	2	0	0	+1	0	15:58	1:38
R. Thomas	C	0	1	1	1	2	2	0	2	20:52	1:39
D. Holloway	LW	0	1	1	4	1	0	-1	0	20:05	1:38
P. Buchnevich	LW	1	0	1	3	0	0	0	0	17:49	1:12
J. Kyrou	RW	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	14:22	1:13
P. Suter	C	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	2	12:44	1:11
J. Snuggerud	RW	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	0	18:19	1:40
J. Berggren	RW	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	12:40	0:00
O. Stenberg	C	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	12:00	0:00
D. Dvorsky	RW	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	2	11:56	1:13
J. Finley	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	10:43	0:00
A. Toropchenko	RW	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	10:38	0:00
P. Broberg	D	1	0	1	1	0	0	-2	2	23:49	1:52
C. Fowler	D	1	0	1	1	0	3	+1	0	20:28	0:21
T. Lindstein	D	1	0	1	2	0	0	+1	0	17:12	0:00
C. Parayko	D	0	0	0	1	2	3	+1	0	21:23	0:00
L. Mailloux	D	0	0	0	0	0	4	-2	0	19:50	0:38
J. Holl	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	0	14:35	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Hofer	29	24	5	.828	59:27	Loss
J. Binnington	0	0	0	–	0:00

SJS Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Wennberg	C	2	1	3	2	0	1	-2	0	19:57	3:10
M. Celebrini	C	2	1	3	5	1	0	+1	0	19:45	3:10
W. Smith	C	0	2	2	3	0	0	+1	0	19:51	3:10
T. Toffoli	C	0	2	2	3	0	0	0	0	12:56	3:10
A. Gaudette	RW	1	0	1	3	1	1	+1	0	10:00	0:00
K. Sherwood	LW	0	0	0	5	3	0	-2	0	16:34	0:16
W. Eklund	LW	0	0	0	0	4	0	-2	0	16:30	0:38
I. Chernyshov	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	+1	0	16:06	0:38
M. Misa	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	0	12:00	0:31
Z. Ostapchuk	C	0	0	0	2	2	1	+1	0	11:58	0:00
C. Graf	RW	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	0	11:46	0:00
B. Goodrow	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	11:44	0:00
N. Leddy	D	0	1	1	0	0	3	+1	0	22:32	0:00
D. Orlov	D	0	1	1	0	0	0	-1	0	20:37	3:48
M. Ferraro	D	0	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	20:20	0:00
V. Desharnais	D	0	1	1	0	2	1	0	0	17:10	0:22
S. Dickinson	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	+1	0	20:00	0:00
S. Mukhamadullin	D	0	0	0	0	0	4	-1	4	16:01	0:07

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
Y. Askarov	26	22	4	.846	60:00	Win
A. Nedeljkovic	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

STL

Line 1R. Thomas17:05D. Holloway17:18J. Snuggerud16:17

Line 2P. Buchnevich13:23J. Neighbours13:58J. Kyrou12:45

Line 3J. Berggren12:09O. Stenberg11:11D. Dvorsky10:32

Line 4A. Toropchenko9:50J. Finley10:24P. Suter9:18

Pair 1P. Broberg19:07L. Mailloux16:45

Pair 2T. Lindstein17:12C. Parayko18:30

Pair 3J. Holl14:35C. Fowler16:51

SJS

Line 1K. Sherwood16:18W. Eklund15:38A. Wennberg15:24

Line 2W. Smith15:33I. Chernyshov15:14M. Celebrini15:05

Line 3T. Toffoli9:46C. Graf10:45M. Misa11:29

Line 4B. Goodrow9:21A. Gaudette9:49Z. Ostapchuk9:57

Pair 1N. Leddy21:42S. Dickinson18:16

Pair 2M. Ferraro18:16S. Mukhamadullin14:45

Pair 3D. Orlov15:55V. Desharnais13:57

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	STL 3.1, SJS 2.8	STL 4, SJS 5
Total goals	5.9	9
Shots on goal	STL 25.4, SJS 26.3	STL 26, SJS 29
Win chance	STL 55%	SJS won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
SJS M. Celebrini	3.4	5	1.16	3	34%	2
STL D. Holloway	2.9	4	0.92	1	31%	0
STL J. Snuggerud	2.6	3	0.78	0	26%	0
STL J. Kyrou	2.4	0	0.72	1	30%	0
SJS W. Smith	2.3	3	0.80	2	27%	0
SJS K. Sherwood	2.2	5	0.48	0	24%	0
SJS W. Eklund	2.0	0	0.61	0	18%	0
SJS T. Toffoli	1.9	3	0.53	2	23%	0
STL P. Buchnevich	1.8	3	0.73	1	25%	1
STL R. Thomas	1.7	1	1.06	1	26%	0
STL L. Mailloux	1.6	0	0.37	0	11%	0
STL C. Parayko	1.6	1	0.37	0	10%	0
STL P. Suter	1.5	1	0.46	1	20%	0
SJS C. Graf	1.4	1	0.45	0	19%	0
SJS I. Chernyshov	1.4	2	0.50	0	16%	0
STL D. Dvorsky	1.4	2	0.35	0	18%	0
SJS M. Misa	1.4	0	0.46	0	18%	0
SJS D. Orlov	1.4	0	0.47	1	9%	0
STL P. Broberg	1.4	1	0.53	1	12%	1
SJS S. Dickinson	1.3	1	0.24	0	3%	0
SJS M. Ferraro	1.2	1	0.27	1	6%	0
STL J. Berggren	1.2	2	0.44	0	18%	0
STL J. Neighbours	1.2	2	0.53	2	23%	0
SJS A. Wennberg	1.2	2	0.55	3	16%	2
SJS A. Gaudette	1.1	3	0.27	1	16%	1
STL A. Toropchenko	1.1	0	0.24	0	11%	0
SJS S. Mukhamadullin	1.1	0	0.27	0	6%	0
STL C. Fowler	1.1	1	0.48	1	8%	1
STL O. Stenberg	1.1	2	0.37	0	13%	0
STL T. Lindstein	1.0	2	0.19	1	5%	1
STL J. Finley	0.8	0	0.20	0	10%	0
SJS B. Goodrow	0.8	1	0.16	0	8%	0
SJS V. Desharnais	0.8	0	0.14	1	2%	0
SJS N. Leddy	0.7	0	0.23	1	3%	0
SJS Z. Ostapchuk	0.7	2	0.10	0	6%	0
STL J. Holl	0.7	1	0.19	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.