TBL beat STL 3-1, and the chances backed it up: 3.15 expected goals to 2.04. STL outshot TBL 32 to 18. N. Kucherov led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). C. Parayko had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.6. A. Vasilevskiy stopped 31 of 32.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| TBL | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
- 1st 5:14TBLA. Cirelli0.14 xG
- 2nd 3:42TBLN. Perbix0.20 xG
- 2nd 12:15STLP. Buchnevich0.14 xG
- 2nd 13:33TBLG. Goncalves0.03 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
STL 2.04 xGTBL 3.15 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
STL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. Thomas | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 22:09 | 2:29 |
| P. Buchnevich | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:06 | 2:27 |
| J. Neighbours | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:06 | 2:28 |
| J. Kyrou | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 18:02 | 2:26 |
| B. Schenn | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 7 | 16:47 | 1:33 |
| D. Holloway | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16:24 | 1:34 |
| Z. Bolduc | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:04 | 1:32 |
| A. Texier | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:33 | 0:44 |
| M. Joseph | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 11:59 | 0:00 |
| B. Saad | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:35 | 0:47 |
| A. Toropchenko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 9:56 | 0:00 |
| N. Walker | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 9:32 | 0:00 |
| C. Fowler | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23:38 | 0:00 |
| J. Faulk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 25:54 | 2:35 |
| R. Suter | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 22:02 | 0:00 |
| C. Parayko | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 21:17 | 0:00 |
| S. Perunovich | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 12:33 | 1:25 |
| T. Tucker | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 8:29 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Binnington | 11 | 8 | 3 | .727 | 33:33 | Loss |
| J. Hofer | 7 | 7 | 0 | 1.000 | 24:21 |
TBL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Kucherov | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 20:51 | 4:39 |
| B. Point | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:23 | 4:05 |
| B. Hagel | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 20:23 | 4:24 |
| A. Cirelli | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:33 | 1:23 |
| C. Geekie | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 14:16 | 1:55 |
| G. Goncalves | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 9:42 | 0:00 |
| J. Guentzel | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 20:35 | 4:29 |
| N. Paul | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:09 | 1:38 |
| M. Chaffee | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:27 | 1:11 |
| L. Glendening | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 11:24 | 0:00 |
| Z. Girgensons | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 9:53 | 0:00 |
| M. Eyssimont | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 8:55 | 0:00 |
| N. Perbix | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 14:11 | 0:00 |
| V. Hedman | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 23:35 | 4:02 |
| E. Cernak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:41 | 0:00 |
| R. McDonagh | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 2 | 20:06 | 0:16 |
| E. Lilleberg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 18:12 | 0:00 |
| D. Raddysh | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:44 | 1:58 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Vasilevskiy | 32 | 31 | 1 | .969 | 60:00 | Win |
| J. Johansson | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | STL 2.9, TBL 3.7 | STL 1, TBL 3 |
| Total goals | 6.6 | 4 |
| Shots on goal | STL 26.1, TBL 31.1 | STL 32, TBL 18 |
| Win chance | TBL 62% | TBL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL N. Kucherov | 3.1 | 1 | 1.54 | 2 | 35% | 0 |
| TBL J. Guentzel | 3.0 | 2 | 1.06 | 0 | 38% | 0 |
| STL J. Kyrou | 2.6 | 2 | 0.79 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| TBL B. Point | 2.5 | 4 | 1.12 | 1 | 41% | 0 |
| TBL B. Hagel | 2.5 | 1 | 1.00 | 1 | 32% | 0 |
| TBL V. Hedman | 2.1 | 1 | 0.78 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| STL P. Buchnevich | 2.0 | 4 | 0.77 | 1 | 27% | 1 |
| STL J. Faulk | 1.9 | 1 | 0.47 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| STL D. Holloway | 1.9 | 2 | 0.44 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| TBL N. Paul | 1.8 | 0 | 0.56 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| STL J. Neighbours | 1.8 | 2 | 0.49 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| TBL M. Eyssimont | 1.8 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| STL R. Thomas | 1.8 | 3 | 0.94 | 1 | 24% | 0 |
| STL B. Schenn | 1.7 | 4 | 0.58 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| TBL A. Cirelli | 1.7 | 2 | 0.63 | 1 | 22% | 1 |
| STL C. Parayko | 1.6 | 6 | 0.35 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| STL B. Saad | 1.4 | 0 | 0.41 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| STL Z. Bolduc | 1.4 | 0 | 0.38 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| TBL C. Geekie | 1.3 | 0 | 0.33 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| TBL D. Raddysh | 1.2 | 2 | 0.35 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| STL A. Toropchenko | 1.2 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| TBL Z. Girgensons | 1.1 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| TBL M. Chaffee | 1.1 | 0 | 0.34 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| TBL R. McDonagh | 1.1 | 0 | 0.34 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| STL M. Joseph | 1.1 | 2 | 0.29 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| STL A. Texier | 1.1 | 2 | 0.30 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| STL C. Fowler | 1.1 | 1 | 0.38 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| TBL N. Perbix | 1.0 | 1 | 0.30 | 1 | 5% | 1 |
| STL N. Walker | 0.9 | 2 | 0.24 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| TBL E. Lilleberg | 0.9 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| TBL G. Goncalves | 0.9 | 1 | 0.17 | 1 | 10% | 1 |
| STL R. Suter | 0.8 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| TBL L. Glendening | 0.8 | 3 | 0.15 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| TBL E. Cernak | 0.8 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| STL T. Tucker | 0.7 | 0 | 0.12 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| STL S. Perunovich | 0.5 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 16 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.