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Game Recap
STL2
UTA1
STL beat UTA 2-1, and the chances backed it up: 3.66 expected goals to 1.95. M. Joseph had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.1. J. Binnington stopped 24 of 25.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| UTA | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
- 1st 17:41STLA. Texier0.13 xG
- 3rd 3:27UTAM. Kesselring0.02 xG
- 3rd 7:13STLJ. Kyrou0.09 xG
Team Stats
STLUTA
29Shots on goal25
3.66Expected goals1.95
57Shot attempts44
225v5 shots on goal20
0/2Power play0/3
23Hits12
8Blocked shots9
13Penalty minutes11
19Giveaways11
8Takeaways2
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
STL 3.66 xGUTA 1.95 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
STL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Buchnevich | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:22 | 2:25 |
| R. Thomas | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 19:59 | 2:23 |
| J. Kyrou | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 16:22 | 1:27 |
| R. Faksa | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 12:30 | 0:04 |
| A. Texier | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 11:54 | 1:54 |
| A. Toropchenko | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 11:19 | 0:00 |
| D. Holloway | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:55 | 1:39 |
| B. Schenn | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 15:32 | 1:39 |
| O. Sundqvist | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:27 | 1:54 |
| J. Neighbours | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:14 | 1:37 |
| M. Joseph | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 12:23 | 0:23 |
| Z. Bolduc | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:02 | 0:00 |
| C. Parayko | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 24:36 | 0:36 |
| C. Fowler | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 23:02 | 1:54 |
| J. Faulk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 21:49 | 1:30 |
| P. Broberg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:53 | 0:35 |
| R. Suter | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 17:07 | 0:00 |
| T. Tucker | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 10:34 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Binnington | 25 | 24 | 1 | .960 | 60:00 | Win |
| J. Hofer | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
UTA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Bjugstad | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:56 | 1:00 |
| K. Stenlund | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 11:24 | 0:00 |
| C. Keller | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 25:15 | 5:26 |
| N. Schmaltz | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22:46 | 4:53 |
| A. Kerfoot | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:31 | 0:00 |
| B. Hayton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:22 | 5:00 |
| J. Doan | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:54 | 4:58 |
| J. McBain | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 5 | 13:34 | 0:00 |
| L. Crouse | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 13:30 | 0:59 |
| M. Maccelli | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:30 | 1:10 |
| M. Carcone | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 4 | 10:43 | 0:34 |
| L. O'Brien | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 8:09 | 0:00 |
| M. Kesselring | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 19:02 | 0:55 |
| M. Sergachev | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 27:50 | 5:05 |
| J. Marino | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 20:44 | 0:00 |
| I. Cole | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 17:25 | 0:00 |
| O. Maatta | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:58 | 0:00 |
| N. DeSimone | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:53 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Ingram | 29 | 27 | 2 | .931 | 58:34 | Loss |
| K. Vejmelka | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | STL 2.8, UTA 3.0 | STL 2, UTA 1 |
| Total goals | 5.7 | 3 |
| Shots on goal | STL 26.4, UTA 28.8 | STL 29, UTA 25 |
| Win chance | UTA 54% | STL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTA C. Keller | 2.8 | 3 | 1.04 | 0 | 33% | 0 |
| STL J. Kyrou | 2.7 | 2 | 0.75 | 1 | 31% | 1 |
| UTA N. Schmaltz | 2.2 | 0 | 0.83 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| STL D. Holloway | 2.1 | 1 | 0.58 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| STL P. Buchnevich | 1.9 | 3 | 0.70 | 1 | 25% | 0 |
| UTA B. Hayton | 1.9 | 3 | 0.49 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| STL R. Thomas | 1.9 | 4 | 0.80 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| UTA M. Kesselring | 1.8 | 2 | 0.37 | 1 | 8% | 1 |
| UTA J. Doan | 1.8 | 1 | 0.48 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| UTA M. Sergachev | 1.8 | 2 | 0.65 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| STL C. Parayko | 1.8 | 2 | 0.38 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| STL B. Schenn | 1.7 | 1 | 0.57 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| UTA L. Crouse | 1.7 | 2 | 0.40 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| UTA N. Bjugstad | 1.7 | 3 | 0.35 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| UTA M. Carcone | 1.6 | 1 | 0.36 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| UTA M. Maccelli | 1.6 | 1 | 0.50 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| STL J. Faulk | 1.6 | 1 | 0.41 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| STL J. Neighbours | 1.5 | 1 | 0.41 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| STL Z. Bolduc | 1.4 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| STL C. Fowler | 1.3 | 1 | 0.46 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| STL A. Texier | 1.2 | 2 | 0.32 | 1 | 14% | 1 |
| UTA A. Kerfoot | 1.2 | 2 | 0.41 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| UTA J. McBain | 1.2 | 0 | 0.37 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| STL P. Broberg | 1.2 | 2 | 0.29 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| UTA K. Stenlund | 1.1 | 0 | 0.21 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| STL M. Joseph | 1.1 | 4 | 0.26 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| STL A. Toropchenko | 1.1 | 1 | 0.20 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| UTA N. DeSimone | 1.1 | 2 | 0.24 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| UTA J. Marino | 1.0 | 0 | 0.34 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| STL R. Faksa | 1.0 | 1 | 0.23 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| UTA I. Cole | 0.9 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| UTA O. Maatta | 0.9 | 2 | 0.25 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| STL T. Tucker | 0.9 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| UTA L. O'Brien | 0.9 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| STL O. Sundqvist | 0.8 | 3 | 0.29 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| STL R. Suter | 0.8 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 24 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.