Game Recap: STL 1, UTA 0 (SO), November 12, 2026

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Game Recap

STL1

Final/SOThu, Nov 12, 2026Every game that night

UTA0

STL beat UTA 1-0 in a shootout despite fewer good chances: 2.66 expected goals to 3.27. M. Carcone had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.5. J. Hofer stopped 29 of 29.

Team Stats

STLUTA

22Shots on goal29

2.66Expected goals3.27

58Shot attempts62

175v5 shots on goal22

0/5Power play0/4

12Hits26

10Blocked shots13

13Penalty minutes15

12Giveaways13

5Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

STL 2.66 xGUTA 3.27 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

STL22 on goal, 0 scored

UTA28 on goal, 0 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

STL Skaters

Player	Pos	SOG	HIT	BLK	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
R. Thomas	C	0	0	0	0	22:01	5:27
D. Holloway	LW	1	3	1	0	20:18	2:58
P. Buchnevich	LW	2	0	1	0	20:16	2:30
J. Snuggerud	RW	0	0	0	0	19:33	4:54
J. Neighbours	LW	3	1	0	0	18:21	4:16
C. McMichael	LW	1	0	0	0	17:27	2:07
M. McTavish	C	4	1	2	2	17:26	5:16
P. Suter	C	0	1	0	0	13:43	0:00
D. Dvorsky	RW	2	0	1	0	12:26	2:20
J. Berggren	RW	2	0	0	0	11:17	0:00
A. Toropchenko	RW	0	2	0	0	10:43	0:00
R. Johnston	LW	0	2	1	5	5:04	0:00
P. Broberg	D	2	0	1	2	29:48	5:05
C. Parayko	D	0	0	1	0	19:36	0:00
C. Fowler	D	1	0	2	2	18:55	0:54
L. Mailloux	D	0	0	0	0	18:52	1:42
J. Barron	D	1	0	0	2	16:09	0:21
B. Carlo	D	3	2	0	0	15:05	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Hofer	29	29	0	1.000	65:00	Win
J. Binnington	0	0	0	–	0:00

UTA Skaters

Player	Pos	SOG	HIT	BLK	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
V. Trocheck	C	2	1	1	0	26:39	4:25
C. Keller	RW	2	0	1	2	24:24	4:27
B. Hayton	C	1	0	0	0	20:15	3:33
K. Yamamoto	RW	1	1	1	0	20:13	4:25
L. Crouse	LW	4	0	0	0	18:41	0:45
J. McBain	C	2	5	0	0	16:04	0:16
A. Lee	LW	1	2	0	2	15:43	0:59
M. Carcone	LW	6	2	0	0	13:38	1:01
K. Stenlund	C	0	1	0	4	11:57	0:00
D. But	LW	0	1	1	0	9:35	0:54
B. McCartney	LW	0	1	0	0	4:52	0:00
L. O'Brien	C	0	3	0	5	2:51	0:00
M. Sergachev	D	1	0	2	0	28:07	4:13
M. Weegar	D	4	3	4	0	25:11	1:13
A. Peeke	D	1	2	2	0	21:58	0:00
D. Simashev	D	1	0	0	0	21:10	0:43
A. Duda	D	1	4	0	2	13:27	0:05
Z. Jones	D	2	0	1	0	11:00	0:11

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
K. Vejmelka	22	22	0	1.000	64:15	OT loss
S. Cossa	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

STL

Line 1D. Holloway12:40J. Snuggerud11:24R. Thomas12:23

Line 2P. Buchnevich13:01D. Dvorsky10:06C. McMichael11:27

Line 3J. Neighbours14:05J. Berggren11:17M. McTavish10:39

Line 4P. Suter10:47A. Toropchenko8:17R. Johnston5:04

Pair 1P. Broberg19:01L. Mailloux15:05

Pair 2C. Fowler14:58B. Carlo11:32

Pair 3C. Parayko14:17J. Barron13:02

UTA

Line 1V. Trocheck16:09C. Keller16:45A. Lee13:59

Line 2K. Yamamoto12:36B. Hayton11:48D. But8:41

Line 3L. Crouse12:15J. McBain11:16M. Carcone10:20

Line 4K. Stenlund9:36B. McCartney4:52L. O'Brien2:51

Pair 1M. Weegar16:35D. Simashev14:40

Pair 2A. Peeke16:53M. Sergachev16:38

Pair 3Z. Jones10:49A. Duda12:22

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

9 of 18 overs hit (50%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	SOG	Result
UTA C. Keller	2.5	-110	+105	2	Under
STL D. Holloway	2.5	+140	-148	1	Under
STL J. Snuggerud	2.5	+118	-130	0	Under
STL M. McTavish	2.5	+135	-165	4	Over
UTA A. Lee	1.5	-179	+135	1	Under
UTA A. Peeke	1.5	+150	-200	1	Under
UTA B. Hayton	1.5	-156	+120	1	Under
STL C. McMichael	1.5	+110	-120	1	Under
UTA J. McBain	1.5	+145	-170	2	Over
STL J. Neighbours	1.5	+120	-145	3	Over
UTA L. Crouse	1.5	+110	-135	4	Over
UTA M. Carcone	1.5	+110	-125	6	Over
UTA M. Sergachev	1.5	-180	+145	1	Under
UTA M. Weegar	1.5	-135	+115	4	Over
STL P. Broberg	1.5	-125	+110	2	Over
STL P. Buchnevich	1.5	+110	-130	2	Over
STL R. Thomas	1.5	-104	-110	0	Under
UTA V. Trocheck	1.5	-150	+120	2	Over

0 of 33 overs hit (0%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	Result
UTA A. Duda	0.5	+1650	-2800	Under
UTA A. Lee	0.5	+290	-475	Under
UTA A. Peeke	0.5	+1800	-3500	Under
STL A. Toropchenko	0.5	+850	-1600	Under
STL B. Carlo	0.5	+2000	-3500	Under
UTA B. Hayton	0.5	+340	-600	Under
STL C. Fowler	0.5	+1100	-2800	Under
UTA C. Keller	0.5	+220	-285	Under
STL C. McMichael	0.5	+425	-500	Under
STL C. Parayko	0.5	+1100	-2000	Under
STL D. Dvorsky	0.5	+525	-750	Under
STL D. Holloway	0.5	+250	-350	Under
UTA D. Simashev	0.5	+1600	–	Under
STL J. Barron	0.5	+1400	-2800	Under
STL J. Berggren	0.5	+550	-800	Under
UTA J. McBain	0.5	+650	-750	Under
STL J. Neighbours	0.5	+320	-420	Under
STL J. Snuggerud	0.5	+200	-240	Under
UTA K. Stenlund	0.5	+1200	-1400	Under
UTA K. Yamamoto	0.5	+440	-800	Under
UTA L. Crouse	0.5	+400	-750	Under
STL L. Mailloux	0.5	+1000	-2500	Under
UTA L. O'Brien	0.5	+950	-1600	Under
UTA M. Carcone	0.5	+500	-750	Under
STL M. McTavish	0.5	+250	-280	Under
UTA M. Sergachev	0.5	+600	-800	Under
UTA M. Weegar	0.5	+1000	-1200	Under
STL P. Broberg	0.5	+650	-900	Under
STL P. Buchnevich	0.5	+340	-450	Under
STL P. Suter	0.5	+600	-1000	Under
STL R. Johnston	0.5	+1100	-2000	Under
STL R. Thomas	0.5	+280	-400	Under
UTA V. Trocheck	0.5	+325	-500	Under

0 of 18 overs hit (0%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	Result
UTA A. Lee	0.5	+280	-525	Under
UTA B. Hayton	0.5	+260	-275	Under
UTA C. Keller	0.5	-140	+111	Under
STL C. McMichael	0.5	+250	-310	Under
STL D. Holloway	0.5	+180	-210	Under
UTA J. McBain	0.5	+390	-575	Under
STL J. Neighbours	0.5	+220	-250	Under
STL J. Snuggerud	0.5	+175	-190	Under
UTA K. Yamamoto	0.5	+320	-460	Under
UTA L. Crouse	0.5	+350	-480	Under
UTA M. Carcone	0.5	+500	-650	Under
STL M. McTavish	0.5	+190	-225	Under
UTA M. Sergachev	0.5	-108	-115	Under
UTA M. Weegar	0.5	+235	-295	Under
STL P. Broberg	0.5	+145	-160	Under
STL P. Buchnevich	0.5	+240	-295	Under
STL R. Thomas	0.5	-120	+110	Under
UTA V. Trocheck	0.5	+175	-218	Under

0 of 19 overs hit (0%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	Result
UTA C. Keller	1.5	+180	-225	Under
UTA A. Lee	0.5	+140	-155	Under
UTA B. Hayton	0.5	+120	-135	Under
STL C. McMichael	0.5	+160	-180	Under
STL D. Holloway	0.5	-110	+100	Under
STL J. Berggren	0.5	+180	-250	Under
UTA J. McBain	0.5	+235	-330	Under
STL J. Neighbours	0.5	+100	-120	Under
STL J. Snuggerud	0.5	-145	+121	Under
UTA K. Yamamoto	0.5	+170	-220	Under
UTA L. Crouse	0.5	+180	-230	Under
UTA M. Carcone	0.5	+245	-320	Under
STL M. McTavish	0.5	-115	+100	Under
UTA M. Sergachev	0.5	-132	+115	Under
UTA M. Weegar	0.5	+180	-210	Under
STL P. Broberg	0.5	+110	-125	Under
STL P. Buchnevich	0.5	+120	-145	Under
STL R. Thomas	0.5	-200	+170	Under
UTA V. Trocheck	0.5	-105	-105	Under

0 of 16 overs hit (0%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	Result
UTA B. Hayton	0.5	+333	-500	Under
STL C. Fowler	0.5	+475	-1400	Under
UTA C. Keller	0.5	+150	-190	Under
STL C. McMichael	0.5	+450	-1200	Under
STL D. Dvorsky	0.5	+500	-1600	Under
STL D. Holloway	0.5	+340	-750	Under
STL J. Neighbours	0.5	+450	-550	Under
STL J. Snuggerud	0.5	+340	-400	Under
UTA M. Carcone	0.5	+475	-750	Under
STL M. McTavish	0.5	+280	-400	Under
UTA M. Sergachev	0.5	+195	-275	Under
UTA M. Weegar	0.5	+500	-1600	Under
STL P. Broberg	0.5	+360	-450	Under
STL P. Buchnevich	0.5	+450	-1200	Under
STL R. Thomas	0.5	+280	-300	Under
UTA V. Trocheck	0.5	+250	-425	Under

Player	Line	Over	Under	SV	Result
STL J. Hofer	25.5	-103	-130	29	Over
UTA K. Vejmelka	22.5	-110	-120	22	Under

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

Storylines That Played Out

MilestoneBarrett Hayton UTA 2 assists from 100Not yet: 1 SOG
MilestoneVincent Trocheck UTA 1 assist from 400Not yet: 2 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	STL 3.2, UTA 3.2	STL 1, UTA 0
Total goals	6.4	1
Shots on goal	STL 25.3, UTA 28.4	STL 22, UTA 29
Win chance	STL 51%	STL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Goal chance
UTA C. Keller	2.6	2	0.99	29%
STL D. Holloway	2.4	1	0.80	27%
STL J. Snuggerud	2.4	0	0.87	31%
STL M. McTavish	2.2	4	0.68	26%
UTA M. Sergachev	2.1	1	0.71	11%
UTA A. Lee	2.0	1	0.45	22%
UTA M. Weegar	1.9	4	0.40	8%
UTA B. Hayton	1.7	1	0.40	16%
UTA V. Trocheck	1.7	2	0.60	20%
STL R. Thomas	1.6	0	1.07	28%
UTA L. Crouse	1.6	4	0.44	21%
STL P. Broberg	1.6	2	0.59	11%
UTA M. Carcone	1.5	6	0.32	16%
STL P. Buchnevich	1.5	2	0.58	22%
STL L. Mailloux	1.5	0	0.34	8%
UTA D. But	1.4	0	0.31	16%
UTA K. Yamamoto	1.4	1	0.42	17%
STL C. McMichael	1.4	1	0.50	18%
STL J. Neighbours	1.4	3	0.58	22%
UTA J. McBain	1.4	2	0.37	15%
STL C. Parayko	1.3	0	0.32	8%
STL P. Suter	1.2	0	0.40	17%
STL J. Berggren	1.1	2	0.35	14%
UTA D. Simashev	1.1	1	0.19	6%
STL J. Barron	1.1	1	0.31	7%
UTA A. Peeke	1.1	1	0.21	3%
STL A. Toropchenko	1.0	0	0.24	10%
STL C. Fowler	1.0	1	0.40	6%
STL D. Dvorsky	1.0	2	0.22	12%
STL B. Carlo	0.9	3	0.15	3%
UTA K. Stenlund	0.9	0	0.22	9%
UTA L. O'Brien	0.8	0	0.14	7%
STL R. Johnston	0.5	0	0.16	5%

Shots on goal: 16 of 33 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.