Game Recap: STL 4, VAN 3 (OT), December 10, 2024

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Game Recap

STL4

Final/OTTue, Dec 10, 2024Every game that night

VAN3

STL beat VAN 4-3 in overtime, with the chances close: 2.83 expected goals to 3.08. R. Thomas led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). D. Holloway had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.9. J. Hofer stopped 22 of 25.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
STL	2	1	0	1	4
VAN	1	1	1	0	3

1st 8:02VAND. Joshua0.26 xG
1st 9:15STLZ. Bolduc0.16 xG
1st 17:30STLR. ThomasSH0.14 xG
2nd 16:18STLJ. KyrouPP0.14 xG
2nd 18:32VANE. PetterssonPP0.14 xG
3rd 18:08VANJ. DeBrusk0.24 xG
OT 1:40STLD. Holloway0.13 xG

Team Stats

STLVAN

25Shots on goal25

2.83Expected goals3.08

52Shot attempts58

175v5 shots on goal15

1/2Power play1/3

15Hits30

18Blocked shots14

8Penalty minutes6

17Giveaways14

11Takeaways14

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

STL 2.83 xGVAN 3.08 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

STL25 on goal, 4 scored

VAN25 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

STL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
R. Thomas	C	1	2	3	1	0	0	+2	0	19:35	2:29
D. Holloway	LW	1	1	2	5	2	4	+2	0	17:04	0:14
P. Buchnevich	LW	0	1	1	3	2	0	+1	0	18:33	2:27
J. Kyrou	RW	1	0	1	4	1	0	0	0	16:19	1:33
Z. Bolduc	RW	1	0	1	2	0	2	+1	0	11:09	0:08
J. Neighbours	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	-2	0	17:01	2:21
B. Schenn	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	-2	2	16:57	1:02
O. Sundqvist	C	0	0	0	1	1	2	+1	6	14:21	0:00
B. Saad	LW	0	0	0	1	0	1	-2	0	13:18	0:00
A. Toropchenko	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	12:45	0:00
R. Faksa	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	12:41	0:00
N. Walker	LW	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	9:47	0:00
J. Faulk	D	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	0	24:43	1:46
C. Parayko	D	0	1	1	1	1	2	0	0	24:04	0:00
P. Broberg	D	0	0	0	2	2	1	0	0	23:25	0:49
R. Suter	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	-1	0	22:09	0:06
M. Kessel	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	+1	0	13:05	0:00
P. Joseph	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	0	11:52	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Hofer	25	22	3	.880	61:40	Win
J. Binnington	0	0	0	–	0:00

VAN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
E. Pettersson	C	1	1	2	5	0	2	0	0	23:15	4:40
C. Garland	RW	0	2	2	1	0	0	+1	0	21:26	4:40
B. Boeser	RW	0	2	2	2	1	0	-1	2	20:21	4:40
J. DeBrusk	LW	1	0	1	4	2	0	-1	0	20:05	4:39
D. Joshua	C	1	0	1	1	3	1	+1	0	14:41	0:32
P. Suter	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	+2	0	18:01	0:33
K. Sherwood	LW	0	0	0	1	8	1	-1	2	13:56	0:32
T. Blueger	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	12:36	0:00
N. Hoglander	LW	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	10:56	0:00
D. Heinen	LW	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	10:47	0:00
M. Sasson	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	9:57	0:00
A. Räty	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	9:54	0:00
T. Myers	D	0	1	1	1	2	1	0	0	22:31	0:12
Q. Hughes	D	0	0	0	4	0	2	0	0	29:50	5:08
C. Soucy	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	2	20:23	0:24
N. Juulsen	D	0	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	16:17	0:00
M. Friedman	D	0	0	0	1	4	2	0	0	14:49	0:00
V. Desharnais	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	12:33	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
T. Demko	25	21	4	.840	60:47	OT loss
K. Lankinen	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamPius Suter STL Faces VAN, his team until Apr 20250 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	STL 2.9, VAN 3.2	STL 4, VAN 3
Total goals	6.1	7
Shots on goal	STL 26.7, VAN 28.2	STL 25, VAN 25
Win chance	VAN 55%	STL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
VAN C. Garland	2.8	1	0.84	2	28%	0
STL J. Kyrou	2.6	4	0.80	1	29%	1
VAN J. DeBrusk	2.6	4	0.75	1	32%	1
VAN Q. Hughes	2.4	4	0.98	0	13%	0
VAN B. Boeser	2.3	2	0.81	2	31%	0
VAN E. Pettersson	2.2	5	1.00	2	32%	1
VAN P. Suter	2.1	0	0.54	0	24%	0
STL P. Buchnevich	2.0	3	0.76	1	26%	0
STL J. Faulk	2.0	2	0.47	1	11%	0
VAN K. Sherwood	2.0	1	0.51	0	21%	0
STL R. Thomas	1.9	1	0.97	3	24%	1
STL D. Holloway	1.9	5	0.44	2	19%	1
STL J. Neighbours	1.9	1	0.49	0	24%	0
STL B. Schenn	1.7	0	0.57	0	19%	0
STL C. Parayko	1.7	1	0.37	1	11%	0
STL B. Saad	1.5	1	0.44	0	20%	0
STL Z. Bolduc	1.3	2	0.36	1	14%	1
VAN T. Blueger	1.3	2	0.40	0	12%	0
VAN D. Heinen	1.2	0	0.39	0	17%	0
VAN T. Myers	1.2	1	0.29	1	4%	0
STL P. Broberg	1.1	2	0.39	0	9%	0
VAN C. Soucy	1.1	1	0.24	0	7%	0
VAN N. Hoglander	1.1	0	0.30	0	16%	0
STL A. Toropchenko	1.1	0	0.22	0	11%	0
STL R. Suter	1.0	0	0.26	0	5%	0
VAN D. Joshua	1.0	1	0.43	1	19%	1
STL R. Faksa	1.0	0	0.24	0	9%	0
VAN M. Friedman	0.9	1	0.11	0	3%	0
STL N. Walker	0.9	0	0.25	0	11%	0
STL O. Sundqvist	0.8	1	0.29	0	11%	0
VAN M. Sasson	0.8	1	0.27	0	9%	0
STL P. Joseph	0.8	1	0.16	0	4%	0
VAN A. Räty	0.8	1	0.22	0	11%	0
VAN N. Juulsen	0.7	0	0.12	0	3%	0
STL M. Kessel	0.6	1	0.15	0	3%	0
VAN V. Desharnais	0.6	0	0.14	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.