Game Recap: STL 3, VAN 1, March 21, 2026

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Game Recap

STL3

FinalSat, Mar 21, 2026Every game that night

VAN1

STL beat VAN 3-1, and the chances backed it up: 4.46 expected goals to 2.37. P. Buchnevich led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). J. Snuggerud had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.3. J. Binnington stopped 14 of 15.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
STL	0	2	1	3
VAN	0	0	1	1

2nd 10:17STLP. Suter0.77 xG
2nd 11:36STLP. Buchnevich0.06 xG
3rd 8:32VANF. HronekPP0.05 xG
3rd 19:12STLJ. KyrouEN0.82 xG

Team Stats

STLVAN

21Shots on goal15

4.46Expected goals2.37

54Shot attempts36

185v5 shots on goal9

1/3Power play1/2

18Hits26

15Blocked shots16

4Penalty minutes4

13Giveaways14

6Takeaways1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

STL 4.46 xGVAN 2.37 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

STL21 on goal, 3 scored

VAN14 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

STL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
P. Buchnevich	LW	1	1	2	1	0	1	+1	0	16:42	2:02
R. Thomas	C	0	1	1	3	0	2	+1	0	20:01	3:25
D. Holloway	LW	0	1	1	1	4	1	+1	0	19:22	3:22
J. Kyrou	RW	1	0	1	3	0	1	+1	0	15:56	2:06
P. Suter	C	1	0	1	2	0	1	+1	0	11:22	0:01
J. Snuggerud	RW	0	0	0	5	0	2	0	0	19:30	3:25
J. Drouin	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	14:55	1:42
O. Stenberg	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	14:45	0:00
D. Dvorsky	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	14:27	1:47
J. Neighbours	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	+1	4	11:58	2:01
J. Finley	C	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	11:03	0:01
A. Toropchenko	RW	0	0	0	1	4	2	0	0	10:48	0:01
L. Mailloux	D	0	2	2	1	1	0	+1	0	21:59	3:18
P. Broberg	D	0	1	1	0	1	0	+1	0	22:34	2:48
C. Fowler	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	+1	0	19:01	0:19
J. Holl	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	+1	0	18:47	0:00
C. Parayko	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	18:25	0:32
T. Lindstein	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	15:39	0:30

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Binnington	15	14	1	.933	59:44	Win
J. Hofer	0	0	0	–	0:00

VAN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Rossi	C	0	1	1	1	2	0	-1	0	17:41	2:05
E. Pettersson	C	0	1	1	0	1	1	-1	0	15:06	2:05
B. Boeser	RW	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	2	18:55	2:05
D. O'Connor	LW	0	0	0	4	3	0	-1	0	16:34	0:50
E. Kane	LW	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	15:31	0:50
T. Blueger	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	15:24	0:07
L. Ohgren	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	15:24	0:07
L. Karlsson	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	0	13:44	0:50
J. DeBrusk	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	13:19	2:05
A. Räty	C	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	12:57	0:00
C. Douglas	C	0	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	11:21	0:00
N. Hoglander	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	10:39	0:07
F. Hronek	D	1	0	1	2	3	2	-1	2	26:28	2:05
Z. Buium	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	0	23:36	0:50
M. Pettersson	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	21:24	0:07
T. Willander	D	0	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	18:02	0:57
E. Pettersson	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	14:49	0:00
V. Mancini	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	-1	0	13:56	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
K. Lankinen	20	18	2	.900	59:42	Loss
N. Tolopilo	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

STL

Line 1R. Thomas15:33D. Holloway15:31J. Snuggerud15:43

Line 2D. Dvorsky12:40O. Stenberg14:01J. Drouin13:13

Line 3P. Buchnevich13:26J. Kyrou13:34J. Neighbours9:57

Line 4A. Toropchenko9:39J. Finley9:52P. Suter10:20

Pair 1P. Broberg17:33L. Mailloux16:24

Pair 2J. Holl18:41C. Fowler17:35

Pair 3C. Parayko16:49T. Lindstein15:09

VAN

Line 1E. Pettersson12:15D. O'Connor14:09L. Karlsson12:48

Line 2B. Boeser15:30M. Rossi15:24L. Ohgren13:15

Line 3E. Kane14:25A. Räty11:37C. Douglas11:05

Line 4J. DeBrusk9:49N. Hoglander10:32T. Blueger12:18

Pair 1M. Pettersson16:42T. Willander15:33

Pair 2F. Hronek21:20Z. Buium22:27

Pair 3E. Pettersson12:35V. Mancini13:56

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamPius Suter STL Faces VAN, his team until Apr 20251 G, 2 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	STL 3.1, VAN 2.9	STL 3, VAN 1
Total goals	6.0	4
Shots on goal	STL 25.6, VAN 26.4	STL 21, VAN 15
Win chance	STL 53%	STL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
STL D. Holloway	2.7	1	0.89	1	29%	0
STL J. Snuggerud	2.3	5	0.77	0	24%	0
STL J. Kyrou	2.2	3	0.67	1	26%	1
VAN J. DeBrusk	2.1	0	0.51	0	24%	0
VAN B. Boeser	2.0	2	0.67	0	28%	0
VAN E. Kane	2.0	0	0.44	0	22%	0
STL P. Buchnevich	1.8	1	0.72	2	24%	1
VAN D. O'Connor	1.7	4	0.42	0	19%	0
STL R. Thomas	1.7	3	1.09	1	26%	0
VAN F. Hronek	1.7	2	0.61	1	10%	1
VAN E. Pettersson	1.6	0	0.71	1	26%	0
VAN L. Ohgren	1.6	0	0.34	0	15%	0
STL L. Mailloux	1.6	1	0.31	2	11%	0
VAN L. Karlsson	1.6	2	0.48	0	19%	0
STL P. Broberg	1.5	0	0.51	1	12%	0
STL C. Parayko	1.5	1	0.37	0	10%	0
STL P. Suter	1.4	2	0.45	1	18%	1
VAN M. Rossi	1.4	1	0.62	1	22%	0
VAN T. Blueger	1.4	0	0.41	0	13%	0
STL D. Dvorsky	1.2	0	0.32	0	16%	0
STL J. Drouin	1.2	0	0.54	0	13%	0
STL J. Neighbours	1.1	0	0.49	0	20%	0
STL C. Fowler	1.1	0	0.48	0	8%	0
VAN N. Hoglander	1.1	1	0.32	0	15%	0
STL O. Stenberg	1.1	0	0.40	0	12%	0
VAN T. Willander	1.1	0	0.39	0	7%	0
VAN A. Räty	1.0	0	0.28	0	13%	0
VAN Z. Buium	1.0	2	0.33	0	6%	0
VAN M. Pettersson	1.0	0	0.31	0	4%	0
STL A. Toropchenko	0.9	1	0.23	0	10%	0
STL T. Lindstein	0.9	1	0.21	0	4%	0
VAN E. Pettersson	0.9	1	0.19	0	4%	0
STL J. Finley	0.7	2	0.21	0	9%	0
VAN C. Douglas	0.7	0	0.11	0	5%	0
VAN V. Mancini	0.7	0	0.16	0	4%	0
STL J. Holl	0.6	0	0.17	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 18 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.