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Game Recap
STL1
WPG3
WPG beat STL 3-1, with the chances close: 2.64 expected goals to 2.43. M. Scheifele led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). C. Parayko had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.4. E. Comrie stopped 22 of 23.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| WPG | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
- 1st 9:52WPGJ. MorrisseyPP0.05 xG
- 1st 11:25WPGM. ScheifelePP0.20 xG
- 2nd 17:23STLJ. KyrouPP0.06 xG
- 3rd 17:37WPGM. ScheifeleEN0.78 xG
Team Stats
STLWPG
23Shots on goal16
2.43Expected goals2.64
69Shot attempts47
185v5 shots on goal11
1/4Power play2/3
20Hits16
12Blocked shots23
6Penalty minutes8
16Giveaways12
5Takeaways4
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
STL 2.43 xGWPG 2.64 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
STL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Kyrou | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:47 | 3:23 |
| D. Dvorsky | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15:33 | 2:58 |
| P. Buchnevich | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:28 | 3:25 |
| J. Neighbours | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:26 | 3:29 |
| B. Schenn | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:37 | 3:23 |
| J. Snuggerud | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:18 | 3:26 |
| J. Berggren | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 16:34 | 3:16 |
| O. Stenberg | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:21 | 3:19 |
| R. Fabbri | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 12:00 | 0:00 |
| N. Bjugstad | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:38 | 0:19 |
| A. Toropchenko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:51 | 0:00 |
| N. Walker | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 9:16 | 0:00 |
| J. Faulk | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 23:37 | 3:31 |
| P. Broberg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23:54 | 1:58 |
| C. Parayko | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 22:27 | 0:09 |
| C. Fowler | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 17:45 | 1:24 |
| T. Tucker | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:03 | 0:00 |
| L. Mailloux | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:44 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Hofer | 15 | 13 | 2 | .867 | 57:55 | Loss |
| J. Binnington | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
WPG Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Scheifele | C | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 17:58 | 3:37 |
| K. Connor | LW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 18:05 | 3:35 |
| A. Lowry | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:35 | 0:00 |
| J. Toews | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15:30 | 3:38 |
| A. Iafallo | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 15:18 | 0:00 |
| V. Namestnikov | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 14:55 | 0:58 |
| G. Vilardi | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:52 | 3:40 |
| N. Niederreiter | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 14:24 | 1:07 |
| M. Barron | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 14:20 | 0:07 |
| G. Nyquist | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:02 | 1:00 |
| C. Perfetti | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 12:01 | 1:12 |
| T. Pearson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:24 | 0:00 |
| J. Morrissey | D | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 21:33 | 2:52 |
| D. DeMelo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 4 | +1 | 0 | 25:15 | 0:00 |
| L. Stanley | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 22:26 | 1:54 |
| D. Samberg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 21:01 | 0:10 |
| L. Schenn | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 15:39 | 0:00 |
| I. Phillips | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9:54 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E. Comrie | 23 | 22 | 1 | .957 | 60:00 | Win |
| C. Hellebuyck | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
STL
Line 1J. Kyrou13:33J. Neighbours13:10P. Buchnevich13:33
Line 2B. Schenn13:27J. Snuggerud12:38O. Stenberg11:27
Line 3R. Fabbri11:04D. Dvorsky11:06J. Berggren11:57
Line 4N. Bjugstad9:45A. Toropchenko9:03N. Walker8:18
Pair 1P. Broberg17:33C. Parayko17:57
Pair 3C. Fowler15:16L. Mailloux10:44
WPG
Line 1M. Scheifele13:58K. Connor14:07A. Iafallo11:56
Line 2N. Niederreiter12:16V. Namestnikov12:40A. Lowry11:21
Line 3J. Toews11:25G. Vilardi10:38C. Perfetti9:59
Line 4T. Pearson9:38M. Barron9:56G. Nyquist10:48
Pair 1D. DeMelo19:25J. Morrissey17:16
Pair 2L. Stanley17:31D. Samberg16:03
Pair 3L. Schenn12:54I. Phillips9:54
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | STL 2.8, WPG 3.1 | STL 1, WPG 3 |
| Total goals | 5.8 | 4 |
| Shots on goal | STL 23.9, WPG 27.2 | STL 23, WPG 16 |
| Win chance | WPG 56% | WPG won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG K. Connor | 3.2 | 1 | 1.09 | 2 | 37% | 0 |
| STL J. Kyrou | 2.4 | 3 | 0.66 | 1 | 27% | 1 |
| WPG M. Scheifele | 2.1 | 2 | 1.05 | 3 | 36% | 2 |
| WPG J. Morrissey | 2.1 | 2 | 0.84 | 3 | 15% | 1 |
| STL J. Snuggerud | 2.1 | 3 | 0.47 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| WPG G. Vilardi | 2.0 | 0 | 0.77 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| STL J. Faulk | 1.8 | 0 | 0.46 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| WPG C. Perfetti | 1.8 | 0 | 0.50 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| STL P. Buchnevich | 1.6 | 3 | 0.62 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| STL N. Bjugstad | 1.6 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| WPG M. Barron | 1.6 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| WPG A. Iafallo | 1.6 | 0 | 0.41 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| STL B. Schenn | 1.5 | 0 | 0.55 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| WPG J. Toews | 1.5 | 0 | 0.48 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| WPG N. Niederreiter | 1.5 | 0 | 0.39 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| STL J. Neighbours | 1.4 | 1 | 0.56 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| STL C. Parayko | 1.4 | 5 | 0.36 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| WPG D. Samberg | 1.3 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| STL D. Dvorsky | 1.3 | 1 | 0.28 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| STL P. Broberg | 1.3 | 1 | 0.38 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| WPG G. Nyquist | 1.3 | 0 | 0.44 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| STL C. Fowler | 1.2 | 0 | 0.44 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| STL J. Berggren | 1.2 | 0 | 0.37 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| WPG A. Lowry | 1.2 | 0 | 0.35 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| STL R. Fabbri | 1.1 | 2 | 0.31 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| WPG L. Stanley | 1.1 | 2 | 0.29 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| STL A. Toropchenko | 1.1 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| WPG V. Namestnikov | 1.1 | 1 | 0.34 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| STL T. Tucker | 1.1 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| WPG D. DeMelo | 1.0 | 3 | 0.33 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| STL L. Mailloux | 1.0 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| STL N. Walker | 1.0 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| WPG T. Pearson | 1.0 | 2 | 0.24 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| WPG L. Schenn | 1.0 | 1 | 0.15 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| STL O. Stenberg | 0.9 | 1 | 0.40 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| WPG I. Phillips | 0.8 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 18 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.