Game Recap: STL 5, WSH 2, February 27, 2025

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Game Recap

STL5

FinalThu, Feb 27, 2025Every game that night

WSH2

STL beat WSH 5-2, and the chances backed it up: 3.45 expected goals to 2.01. P. Broberg led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). J. Hofer stopped 16 of 18.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
STL	2	2	1	5
WSH	1	1	0	2

1st 11:14STLP. Broberg0.13 xG
1st 15:04WSHP. Dubois0.18 xG
1st 17:45STLP. Broberg0.13 xG
2nd 16:55WSHC. McMichael0.04 xG
2nd 17:23STLD. Holloway0.05 xG
2nd 17:58STLC. Parayko0.68 xG
3rd 18:05STLJ. NeighboursEN0.53 xG

Team Stats

STLWSH

19Shots on goal18

3.45Expected goals2.01

39Shot attempts51

145v5 shots on goal16

0/1Power play0/2

20Hits18

17Blocked shots10

4Penalty minutes2

8Giveaways12

3Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

STL 3.45 xGWSH 2.01 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

STL19 on goal, 5 scored

WSH18 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

STL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
P. Buchnevich	LW	0	2	2	4	1	0	+2	2	19:21	1:08
J. Neighbours	LW	1	1	2	2	2	0	+3	0	17:35	0:45
B. Schenn	C	0	2	2	0	2	2	+3	0	15:39	0:54
R. Thomas	C	0	1	1	0	0	3	+2	0	20:49	1:09
D. Holloway	LW	1	0	1	2	2	2	+1	0	15:52	0:52
R. Faksa	C	0	1	1	0	2	0	+1	0	13:15	0:00
M. Joseph	RW	0	1	1	1	2	0	0	0	11:07	0:00
J. Kyrou	RW	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	2	14:07	0:51
A. Toropchenko	RW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	12:51	0:00
N. Walker	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	12:48	0:00
O. Sundqvist	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	-2	0	12:42	1:06
Z. Bolduc	RW	0	0	0	1	2	1	+1	0	11:43	1:07
P. Broberg	D	2	0	2	2	0	0	+2	0	21:24	0:08
C. Parayko	D	1	0	1	2	0	3	+2	0	19:13	0:00
R. Suter	D	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	19:06	0:00
J. Faulk	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	+1	0	21:13	0:45
C. Fowler	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	19:10	1:15
N. Leddy	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	0	18:05	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Hofer	18	16	2	.889	60:00	Win
J. Binnington	0	0	0	–	0:00

WSH Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. McMichael	LW	1	1	2	2	1	0	0	0	18:25	1:01
P. Dubois	C	1	0	1	1	3	2	0	0	20:02	3:33
T. Raddysh	RW	0	1	1	0	1	0	+1	0	16:45	2:58
E. Frank	RW	0	1	1	0	2	1	+1	0	13:14	0:25
A. Ovechkin	LW	0	0	0	4	2	0	-4	0	20:44	3:47
D. Strome	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	-4	0	18:25	3:00
N. Dowd	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	14:39	0:00
A. Protas	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-3	0	14:30	0:00
B. Duhaime	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	13:53	0:00
A. Mangiapane	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	2	11:38	1:02
L. Eller	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	11:31	0:00
J. Vrana	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	9:22	0:00
M. Roy	D	0	1	1	1	0	1	+1	0	19:24	0:13
J. Carlson	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	-3	0	23:21	3:15
J. Chychrun	D	0	0	0	1	1	3	-1	0	21:22	0:46
R. Sandin	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	-2	0	18:39	0:00
T. van Riemsdyk	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	17:18	0:00
M. Fehérváry	D	0	0	0	0	3	0	-1	0	16:12	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Lindgren	18	14	4	.778	58:36	Loss
L. Thompson	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamConnor McMichael STL First game back in Washington, his team until Apr 20261 G, 1 A, 2 SOG
Old teamJordan Kyrou WSH First game against STL since he left (his team until Apr 2026)2 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	STL 2.7, WSH 3.1	STL 5, WSH 2
Total goals	5.7	7
Shots on goal	STL 25.6, WSH 27.9	STL 19, WSH 18
Win chance	WSH 57%	STL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
WSH A. Ovechkin	3.7	4	0.94	0	39%	0
WSH J. Chychrun	2.7	1	0.60	0	18%	0
STL J. Kyrou	2.5	2	0.69	0	28%	0
WSH J. Carlson	2.2	1	0.65	0	12%	0
STL D. Holloway	2.2	2	0.54	1	21%	1
STL R. Thomas	2.0	0	0.82	1	22%	0
WSH A. Protas	2.0	2	0.67	0	20%	0
STL P. Buchnevich	2.0	4	0.69	2	24%	0
WSH D. Strome	2.0	2	0.84	0	26%	0
WSH C. McMichael	1.9	2	0.53	2	22%	1
WSH P. Dubois	1.9	1	0.72	1	24%	1
STL J. Faulk	1.7	1	0.39	0	8%	0
STL C. Parayko	1.7	2	0.33	1	10%	1
STL B. Schenn	1.7	0	0.53	2	19%	0
STL J. Neighbours	1.5	2	0.39	2	20%	1
STL Z. Bolduc	1.4	1	0.37	0	15%	0
WSH L. Eller	1.4	0	0.31	0	14%	0
STL P. Broberg	1.4	2	0.28	2	7%	2
WSH J. Vrana	1.3	1	0.36	0	18%	0
WSH A. Mangiapane	1.3	0	0.41	0	18%	0
WSH M. Roy	1.3	1	0.33	1	6%	0
STL C. Fowler	1.2	0	0.39	0	8%	0
WSH E. Frank	1.2	0	0.32	1	16%	0
WSH B. Duhaime	1.2	1	0.23	0	11%	0
STL M. Joseph	1.1	1	0.25	1	9%	0
STL A. Toropchenko	1.1	1	0.21	0	10%	0
WSH T. Raddysh	1.1	0	0.27	1	11%	0
WSH R. Sandin	1.1	1	0.33	0	7%	0
WSH N. Dowd	1.0	1	0.34	0	16%	0
WSH M. Fehérváry	1.0	0	0.24	0	6%	0
STL O. Sundqvist	1.0	0	0.31	0	11%	0
WSH T. Riemsdyk	1.0	0	0.23	0	3%	0
STL R. Faksa	1.0	0	0.22	1	9%	0
STL N. Leddy	1.0	0	0.24	0	4%	0
STL N. Walker	0.9	1	0.24	0	12%	0
STL R. Suter	0.8	0	0.17	1	3%	0

Shots on goal: 25 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.5 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.