BOS beat TBL 6-2 despite fewer good chances: 2.68 expected goals to 3.22. TBL outshot BOS 45 to 24. D. Pastrnak led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). N. Paul had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.6. J. Swayman stopped 43 of 45.
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
TBL 3.22 xGBOS 2.68 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
TBL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Kucherov | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | -4 | 0 | 21:36 | 1:50 |
| N. Paul | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 16:24 | 0:10 |
| C. Geekie | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:41 | 0:00 |
| B. Hagel | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | -3 | 2 | 21:09 | 1:51 |
| A. Cirelli | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 19:37 | 0:29 |
| J. Guentzel | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 18:43 | 1:54 |
| Z. Girgensons | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 11:26 | 0:09 |
| M. Eyssimont | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:24 | 0:10 |
| L. Glendening | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 11:19 | 0:06 |
| C. Atkinson | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 10:30 | 0:00 |
| M. Chaffee | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 9:58 | 1:17 |
| J. Finley | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 8:25 | 0:00 |
| V. Hedman | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 26:22 | 0:29 |
| D. Raddysh | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 22:33 | 1:16 |
| E. Lilleberg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 5 | 19:20 | 0:14 |
| E. Cernak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 5 | 18:01 | 0:00 |
| N. Perbix | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 17:42 | 0:15 |
| R. McDonagh | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 2 | 14:38 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Vasilevskiy | 22 | 18 | 4 | .818 | 59:12 | Loss |
| J. Johansson | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
BOS Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Pastrnak | RW | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 18:49 | 3:17 |
| P. Zacha | C | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 16:30 | 1:57 |
| B. Marchand | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 19:23 | 1:53 |
| E. Lindholm | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:01 | 1:55 |
| C. Coyle | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 17:10 | 1:55 |
| M. Poitras | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 14:05 | 0:00 |
| T. Frederic | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 12:31 | 0:00 |
| M. Geekie | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:00 | 2:05 |
| V. Lettieri | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:54 | 0:43 |
| J. Brazeau | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:51 | 2:07 |
| J. Beecher | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 11:27 | 0:00 |
| C. Koepke | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9:27 | 0:00 |
| A. Peeke | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 2 | +4 | 0 | 20:55 | 0:00 |
| P. Wotherspoon | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 21:20 | 0:00 |
| N. Zadorov | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | +2 | 7 | 18:24 | 0:48 |
| M. Lohrei | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 22:37 | 3:12 |
| B. Carlo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 19:25 | 0:08 |
| M. Callahan | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:11 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Swayman | 45 | 43 | 2 | .956 | 60:00 | Win |
| J. Korpisalo | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | TBL 3.1, BOS 3.0 | TBL 2, BOS 6 |
| Total goals | 6.1 | 8 |
| Shots on goal | TBL 27.6, BOS 28.9 | TBL 45, BOS 24 |
| Win chance | TBL 50% | BOS won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS D. Pastrnak | 4.2 | 4 | 1.15 | 3 | 43% | 1 |
| TBL N. Kucherov | 3.1 | 5 | 1.44 | 1 | 33% | 0 |
| TBL J. Guentzel | 2.6 | 3 | 0.91 | 0 | 33% | 0 |
| BOS B. Marchand | 2.6 | 2 | 0.81 | 2 | 29% | 1 |
| TBL B. Hagel | 2.5 | 3 | 0.94 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| BOS M. Geekie | 2.0 | 1 | 0.55 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| TBL V. Hedman | 2.0 | 5 | 0.70 | 2 | 11% | 1 |
| BOS P. Zacha | 1.9 | 2 | 0.66 | 3 | 22% | 1 |
| BOS E. Lindholm | 1.9 | 2 | 0.60 | 1 | 24% | 0 |
| TBL A. Cirelli | 1.8 | 2 | 0.61 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| TBL M. Eyssimont | 1.7 | 4 | 0.22 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| TBL N. Paul | 1.6 | 5 | 0.48 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| BOS J. Brazeau | 1.5 | 1 | 0.42 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| BOS C. Coyle | 1.5 | 1 | 0.50 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| BOS T. Frederic | 1.5 | 1 | 0.41 | 1 | 19% | 1 |
| BOS N. Zadorov | 1.4 | 1 | 0.30 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| TBL D. Raddysh | 1.3 | 3 | 0.36 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| TBL C. Geekie | 1.1 | 2 | 0.26 | 1 | 11% | 1 |
| BOS B. Carlo | 1.1 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| TBL C. Atkinson | 1.0 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| TBL R. McDonagh | 1.0 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| BOS M. Lohrei | 1.0 | 0 | 0.41 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| TBL Z. Girgensons | 1.0 | 2 | 0.16 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| BOS V. Lettieri | 1.0 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| BOS M. Poitras | 1.0 | 1 | 0.36 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| TBL M. Chaffee | 0.9 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| BOS A. Peeke | 0.9 | 4 | 0.18 | 2 | 4% | 1 |
| TBL N. Perbix | 0.9 | 3 | 0.25 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| BOS P. Wotherspoon | 0.9 | 3 | 0.17 | 1 | 2% | 1 |
| BOS C. Koepke | 0.9 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| TBL E. Cernak | 0.8 | 2 | 0.21 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| TBL E. Lilleberg | 0.7 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| TBL L. Glendening | 0.7 | 3 | 0.12 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| BOS J. Beecher | 0.6 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 21 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.5 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.