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Game Recap
TBL6
BOS2
TBL beat BOS 6-2, and the chances backed it up: 7.11 expected goals to 1.02. TBL outshot BOS 40 to 12. A. Cirelli led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). A. Cirelli had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.7. A. Vasilevskiy stopped 10 of 12.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6 |
| BOS | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
- 1st 2:22TBLV. Hedman0.15 xG
- 1st 15:58BOSE. Lindholm0.22 xG
- 2nd 2:13TBLN. Paul0.23 xG
- 2nd 7:22TBLA. Cirelli0.08 xG
- 2nd 17:08TBLD. Raddysh0.03 xG
- 3rd 0:23BOSM. Khusnutdinov0.01 xG
- 3rd 16:31TBLB. HagelEN0.26 xG
- 3rd 19:15TBLA. CirelliEN0.86 xG
Team Stats
TBLBOS
40Shots on goal12
7.11Expected goals1.02
89Shot attempts31
335v5 shots on goal10
0/2Power play0/1
19Hits36
11Blocked shots19
0Penalty minutes4
12Giveaways13
3Takeaways7
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
TBL 7.11 xGBOS 1.02 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
TBL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Cirelli | C | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 22:00 | 0:25 |
| Y. Gourde | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 17:26 | 0:25 |
| N. Paul | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 13:58 | 0:25 |
| B. Hagel | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 21:08 | 1:19 |
| N. Kucherov | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:25 | 3:35 |
| G. Goncalves | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:48 | 0:00 |
| J. Guentzel | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:14 | 3:35 |
| B. Point | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:28 | 3:35 |
| O. Bjorkstrand | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 13:59 | 2:41 |
| Z. Girgensons | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 11:24 | 0:00 |
| L. Glendening | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 11:19 | 0:00 |
| V. Hedman | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 23:14 | 3:35 |
| E. Lilleberg | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 15:34 | 0:00 |
| D. Raddysh | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 11:27 | 0:00 |
| E. Cernak | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:04 | 0:00 |
| R. McDonagh | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 17:55 | 0:25 |
| J. Moser | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:13 | 0:00 |
| N. Perbix | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:25 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Vasilevskiy | 12 | 10 | 2 | .833 | 60:00 | Win |
| J. Johansson | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
BOS Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E. Lindholm | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 18:04 | 1:06 |
| M. Khusnutdinov | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:35 | 0:47 |
| J. Lauko | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 15:54 | 0:05 |
| D. Pastrnak | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 21:27 | 1:55 |
| M. Geekie | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 19:11 | 1:05 |
| P. Zacha | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 18:59 | 0:49 |
| C. Mittelstadt | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 16:51 | 1:08 |
| V. Lettieri | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 14:12 | 0:50 |
| C. Koepke | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:56 | 0:05 |
| J. Beecher | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:01 | 0:05 |
| P. Brown | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 8:12 | 0:00 |
| M. Kastelic | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 7:43 | 0:00 |
| H. Jokiharju | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 22:46 | 0:05 |
| A. Peeke | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 20:42 | 0:00 |
| M. Lohrei | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 22:47 | 1:04 |
| N. Zadorov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 20:57 | 0:05 |
| I. Mitchell | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:33 | 0:51 |
| P. Wotherspoon | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 0 | 15:11 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Swayman | 38 | 34 | 4 | .895 | 57:59 | Loss |
| J. Korpisalo | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | TBL 3.1, BOS 3.0 | TBL 6, BOS 2 |
| Total goals | 6.1 | 8 |
| Shots on goal | TBL 27.8, BOS 28.4 | TBL 40, BOS 12 |
| Win chance | TBL 52% | TBL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS D. Pastrnak | 4.2 | 1 | 1.20 | 0 | 43% | 0 |
| TBL N. Kucherov | 2.7 | 3 | 1.24 | 1 | 30% | 0 |
| TBL J. Guentzel | 2.6 | 5 | 0.92 | 0 | 34% | 0 |
| TBL B. Hagel | 2.5 | 3 | 0.89 | 1 | 29% | 1 |
| TBL B. Point | 2.5 | 1 | 0.95 | 0 | 36% | 0 |
| BOS M. Geekie | 2.0 | 1 | 0.58 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| BOS E. Lindholm | 1.9 | 1 | 0.55 | 2 | 22% | 1 |
| TBL V. Hedman | 1.9 | 3 | 0.67 | 2 | 11% | 1 |
| TBL O. Bjorkstrand | 1.7 | 0 | 0.52 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| BOS P. Zacha | 1.7 | 2 | 0.66 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| TBL A. Cirelli | 1.7 | 5 | 0.57 | 2 | 21% | 2 |
| TBL N. Paul | 1.6 | 4 | 0.46 | 2 | 20% | 1 |
| BOS M. Lohrei | 1.5 | 0 | 0.45 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| BOS V. Lettieri | 1.4 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| BOS N. Zadorov | 1.4 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| TBL Y. Gourde | 1.4 | 3 | 0.45 | 2 | 15% | 0 |
| TBL D. Raddysh | 1.3 | 2 | 0.39 | 2 | 6% | 1 |
| BOS C. Mittelstadt | 1.3 | 1 | 0.54 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| BOS C. Koepke | 1.3 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| TBL Z. Girgensons | 1.2 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| BOS A. Peeke | 1.1 | 2 | 0.22 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| BOS M. Kastelic | 1.1 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| BOS H. Jokiharju | 1.0 | 0 | 0.18 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| TBL R. McDonagh | 1.0 | 1 | 0.31 | 1 | 3% | 0 |
| TBL G. Goncalves | 1.0 | 1 | 0.27 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| TBL E. Cernak | 0.9 | 3 | 0.24 | 1 | 3% | 0 |
| BOS J. Lauko | 0.9 | 0 | 0.22 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| TBL J. Moser | 0.8 | 3 | 0.25 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| BOS P. Wotherspoon | 0.8 | 1 | 0.16 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| BOS P. Brown | 0.8 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| TBL L. Glendening | 0.8 | 0 | 0.13 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| TBL N. Perbix | 0.8 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| BOS I. Mitchell | 0.7 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| BOS M. Khusnutdinov | 0.7 | 1 | 0.21 | 1 | 10% | 1 |
| TBL E. Lilleberg | 0.7 | 2 | 0.17 | 2 | 1% | 0 |
| BOS J. Beecher | 0.6 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.