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Game Recap
TBL2
Final/OTTue, Oct 17, 2023Every game that night
BUF3

BUF beat TBL 3-2 in overtime despite fewer good chances: 2.70 expected goals to 3.43. B. Hagel led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). D. Levi stopped 23 of 25.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdOTT
TBL01102
BUF20013
  1. 1st 8:57BUFZ. Girgensons0.14 xG
  2. 1st 15:28BUFJ. Skinner0.07 xG
  3. 2nd 17:58TBLB. Hagel0.23 xG
  4. 3rd 19:53TBLB. Hagel0.33 xG
  5. OT 1:46BUFD. Cozens0.15 xG

Team Stats

TBLBUF
25Shots on goal31
3.43Expected goals2.70
56Shot attempts56
185v5 shots on goal24
0/4Power play0/3
20Hits14
10Blocked shots12
11Penalty minutes13
7Giveaways6
4Takeaways7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

TBL 3.43 xGBUF 2.70 xGGoal

00.511.522.533.51st2nd3rdOTBUF goal, 8:57BUF goal, 15:28TBL goal, 17:58TBL goal, 19:53BUF goal, 1:46

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

TBL25 on goal, 2 scored
BUF30 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

TBL Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
B. HagelLW202420+2019:542:12
B. PointC011412-1026:264:46
A. CirelliC011120+1018:020:00
T. JeannotLW011040-1014:441:59
N. KucherovRW000200+1025:574:50
A. Barré-BouletC0001000216:571:42
N. PaulLW0000300015:384:34
C. ShearyLW000100-1212:531:45
M. EyssimontC000301-1010:340:00
L. GlendeningC000012009:030:00
W. MerelaC000000005:490:00
A. WatsonLW000020-155:040:00
V. HedmanD000301+1028:194:39
M. SergachevD000214-1026:264:51
D. RaddyshD000000-1223:061:32
E. CernakD0000100017:570:10
N. PerbixD0003100012:270:00
Z. BogosianD0001200011:370:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
J. Johansson31283.90360:11OT loss
M. Tomkins000–0:00

BUF Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
A. TuchRW0112010219:483:02
J. SkinnerLW101500+1018:272:50
J. GreenwayLW0111000016:580:00
D. CozensC1012000011:362:51
T. JostC011320+1011:240:02
Z. GirgensonsC101201+159:110:00
T. ThompsonC0005200021:512:49
C. MittelstadtC0000010218:001:42
Z. BensonLW0001000015:001:34
P. KrebsC000010-1014:301:45
J. PeterkaRW000101-1012:331:45
K. OkposoRW000100+1010:240:00
R. DahlinD0113120225:542:51
O. PowerD0110120022:511:46
M. SamuelssonD011002+1017:360:00
E. JohnsonD0001210017:450:00
C. CliftonD0001400217:450:03
H. JokiharjuD0003110015:450:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
D. Levi25232.92061:46Win
E. Comrie000–0:00

Storylines That Played Out

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.