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Game Recap
TBL3
FinalSat, Jan 20, 2024Every game that night
BUF1

TBL beat BUF 3-1, and the chances backed it up: 3.19 expected goals to 2.22. BUF outshot TBL 27 to 16. N. Paul led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). J. Johansson stopped 26 of 27.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
TBL2013
BUF0101
  1. 1st 6:14TBLN. Paul0.14 xG
  2. 1st 7:06TBLT. MotteSH0.14 xG
  3. 2nd 13:52BUFD. Cozens0.17 xG
  4. 3rd 18:44TBLC. de HaanEN0.52 xG

Team Stats

TBLBUF
16Shots on goal27
3.19Expected goals2.22
43Shot attempts54
115v5 shots on goal20
0/3Power play0/2
16Hits18
13Blocked shots11
4Penalty minutes6
2Giveaways7
9Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

TBL 3.19 xGBUF 2.22 xGGoal

00.511.522.533.51st2nd3rdTBL goal, 6:14TBL goal, 7:06BUF goal, 13:52TBL goal, 18:44

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

TBL16 on goal, 3 scored
BUF26 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

TBL Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
B. HagelLW022201+2020:431:20
N. PaulLW112220+2018:292:22
A. CirelliC011200+2019:582:13
T. MotteC101110+1014:320:02
B. PointC000201-1019:473:25
N. KucherovRW000000-1019:234:15
S. StamkosC000101-1018:333:24
C. ShearyLW0001000012:401:17
M. EyssimontC0001100211:280:34
L. GlendeningC000001+1010:270:00
W. MerelaC000001007:290:00
A. WatsonLW000011006:360:00
C. de HaanD101123+1018:340:00
D. RaddyshD000031+2225:311:52
V. HedmanD000110+2025:092:52
N. PerbixD000101+1019:040:04
E. LillebergD000032-1014:080:00
M. CrozierD000120-1013:320:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
J. Johansson27261.96359:57Win
A. Vasilevskiy000–0:00

BUF Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
D. CozensC101200-1017:581:10
J. PeterkaRW0112010015:391:08
A. TuchRW000230-1218:361:19
C. MittelstadtC000300-2018:021:19
T. ThompsonC000100-2017:161:19
J. GreenwayLW0000210016:190:00
J. QuinnRW000220+1015:371:02
Z. BensonLW000201-2213:241:19
K. OkposoRW0002020012:120:15
Z. GirgensonsC000040-1011:110:11
P. KrebsC0000000011:070:17
V. OlofssonLW000200009:561:14
R. DahlinD0115210028:171:42
O. PowerD000200-2023:541:09
M. SamuelssonD000020+1020:180:16
C. CliftonD0000200016:130:00
H. JokiharjuD000113-1015:100:00
R. JohnsonD000102-1213:580:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
U. Luukkonen15132.86758:53Loss
E. Comrie000–0:00

Storylines That Played Out

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.