BUF beat TBL 3-2 in a shootout, and the chances backed it up: 3.73 expected goals to 2.81. BUF outshot TBL 38 to 24. J. Peterka had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.4. J. Reimer stopped 22 of 24.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | SO | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| BUF | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
- 2nd 1:35TBLB. Point0.07 xG
- 2nd 4:47BUFT. Thompson0.08 xG
- 2nd 13:01TBLG. Goncalves0.13 xG
- 3rd 5:07BUFJ. ZuckerPP0.08 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
TBL 2.81 xGBUF 3.73 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
TBL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Kucherov | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23:25 | 5:10 |
| B. Point | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22:24 | 5:13 |
| Y. Gourde | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:22 | 0:47 |
| O. Bjorkstrand | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 13:50 | 3:09 |
| G. Goncalves | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 11:42 | 0:00 |
| J. Guentzel | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 24:31 | 5:14 |
| B. Hagel | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 21:53 | 2:51 |
| A. Cirelli | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 19:27 | 0:49 |
| N. Paul | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 17:29 | 0:47 |
| Z. Girgensons | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9:52 | 0:00 |
| L. Glendening | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:15 | 0:00 |
| V. Hedman | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 25:28 | 4:00 |
| R. McDonagh | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 24:50 | 0:00 |
| E. Cernak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 21:00 | 0:00 |
| J. Moser | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | +1 | 0 | 19:23 | 0:00 |
| D. Raddysh | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:41 | 2:01 |
| E. Lilleberg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:20 | 0:00 |
| N. Perbix | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 6:36 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Johansson | 38 | 36 | 2 | .947 | 64:59 | OT loss |
| A. Vasilevskiy | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
BUF Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Thompson | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 22:50 | 3:15 |
| A. Tuch | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:54 | 2:28 |
| Z. Benson | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 16:06 | 0:00 |
| J. Zucker | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:47 | 3:26 |
| J. Peterka | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 19:35 | 3:33 |
| R. McLeod | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 18:17 | 0:59 |
| J.Kulich | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:04 | 0:59 |
| P. Krebs | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:49 | 0:01 |
| J. Quinn | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 13:22 | 1:17 |
| B. Malenstyn | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 11:01 | 0:01 |
| S. Lafferty | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:01 | 0:01 |
| N. Ostlund | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8:37 | 2:04 |
| R. Dahlin | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 23:16 | 3:29 |
| M. Samuelsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -1 | 0 | 22:27 | 0:00 |
| B. Byram | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 20:18 | 0:08 |
| C. Clifton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 20:14 | 0:00 |
| O. Power | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 20:12 | 1:04 |
| J. Bernard-Docker | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 14:10 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Reimer | 24 | 22 | 2 | .917 | 65:00 | Win |
| U. Luukkonen | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | TBL 3.7, BUF 3.1 | TBL 2, BUF 3 |
| Total goals | 6.9 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | TBL 28.6, BUF 27.6 | TBL 24, BUF 38 |
| Win chance | TBL 59% | BUF won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL N. Kucherov | 3.1 | 3 | 1.53 | 1 | 34% | 0 |
| BUF T. Thompson | 3.0 | 4 | 0.83 | 1 | 36% | 1 |
| TBL J. Guentzel | 2.8 | 4 | 1.09 | 0 | 39% | 0 |
| TBL B. Point | 2.5 | 2 | 1.08 | 1 | 40% | 1 |
| TBL B. Hagel | 2.5 | 2 | 0.98 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| BUF J. Peterka | 2.4 | 6 | 0.71 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| BUF R. Dahlin | 2.4 | 2 | 0.67 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| BUF A. Tuch | 2.3 | 4 | 0.71 | 1 | 29% | 0 |
| TBL V. Hedman | 2.1 | 4 | 0.86 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| BUF J.Kulich | 2.1 | 2 | 0.37 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| BUF J. Zucker | 1.9 | 2 | 0.55 | 1 | 21% | 1 |
| TBL N. Paul | 1.9 | 2 | 0.55 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| TBL A. Cirelli | 1.7 | 0 | 0.62 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| BUF J. Quinn | 1.7 | 3 | 0.51 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| TBL O. Bjorkstrand | 1.6 | 3 | 0.53 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| BUF R. McLeod | 1.5 | 0 | 0.59 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| BUF Z. Benson | 1.5 | 3 | 0.37 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| BUF O. Power | 1.4 | 3 | 0.37 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| TBL Y. Gourde | 1.4 | 0 | 0.50 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| TBL D. Raddysh | 1.2 | 0 | 0.39 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| BUF B. Byram | 1.1 | 1 | 0.41 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| TBL Z. Girgensons | 1.1 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| BUF P. Krebs | 1.1 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| BUF C. Clifton | 1.0 | 2 | 0.25 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| TBL R. McDonagh | 1.0 | 0 | 0.39 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| BUF M. Samuelsson | 0.9 | 2 | 0.21 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| BUF S. Lafferty | 0.9 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| BUF B. Malenstyn | 0.8 | 2 | 0.16 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| TBL E. Cernak | 0.8 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| TBL G. Goncalves | 0.8 | 4 | 0.29 | 1 | 11% | 1 |
| TBL J. Moser | 0.8 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| TBL N. Perbix | 0.7 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| TBL L. Glendening | 0.7 | 0 | 0.13 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| BUF J. Bernard-Docker | 0.6 | 1 | 0.16 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| TBL E. Lilleberg | 0.6 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 1% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 19 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.