Game Recap: TBL 7, BUF 8, March 8, 2026

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Game Recap

TBL7

FinalSun, Mar 8, 2026Every game that night

BUF8

BUF beat TBL 8-7, with the chances close: 4.63 expected goals to 3.94. BUF outshot TBL 42 to 28. T. Thompson led the way with 4 points (0 G, 4 A). B. Byram had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 1.3. U. Luukkonen stopped 22 of 28.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
TBL	0	4	3	7
BUF	1	3	4	8

1st 8:26BUFJ. DoanPP0.11 xG
2nd 2:15BUFJ. ZuckerPP0.11 xG
2nd 5:10BUFA. TuchPP0.07 xG
2nd 7:55TBLC. Perry0.19 xG
2nd 11:07BUFA. TuchSH0.14 xG
2nd 12:26TBLN. KucherovPP0.05 xG
2nd 14:46TBLZ. Girgensons0.17 xG
2nd 17:37TBLJ. Moser0.21 xG
3rd 0:59TBLN. Kucherov0.12 xG
3rd 5:46TBLB. Point0.29 xG
3rd 6:12BUFS. Carrick0.05 xG
3rd 9:48TBLB. Hagel0.15 xG
3rd 11:03BUFR. Dahlin0.20 xG
3rd 14:29BUFJ. Zucker0.12 xG
3rd 15:43BUFJ. DoanPP0.67 xG

Team Stats

TBLBUF

28Shots on goal42

3.94Expected goals4.63

63Shot attempts61

215v5 shots on goal27

1/2Power play4/7

40Hits27

6Blocked shots15

57Penalty minutes45

11Giveaways14

2Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

TBL 3.94 xGBUF 4.63 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

TBL29 on goal, 7 scored

BUF42 on goal, 8 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

TBL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Kucherov	RW	2	1	3	5	5	0	+1	2	19:15	2:50
B. Hagel	LW	1	1	2	2	0	1	+1	11	16:42	0:45
A. Cirelli	C	0	1	1	1	4	0	+1	2	18:55	0:40
Y. Gourde	C	0	1	1	2	2	0	+1	0	18:39	0:00
B. Point	C	1	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	17:13	2:35
Z. Girgensons	C	1	0	1	1	4	0	0	2	15:48	0:00
C. Perry	RW	1	0	1	1	0	0	+2	5	8:54	0:55
C. Geekie	C	0	1	1	1	6	0	0	0	7:33	0:00
J. Guentzel	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	17:44	2:53
O. Bjorkstrand	RW	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	14:02	2:23
P. Holmberg	RW	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	13:17	0:37
S. Sabourin	RW	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	5	4:17	0:00
J. Moser	D	1	2	3	3	2	0	+2	0	26:17	0:00
D. Raddysh	D	0	3	3	4	1	1	+2	7	23:13	2:53
R. McDonagh	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	20:41	0:00
V. Hedman	D	0	0	0	3	1	0	+2	0	20:07	0:37
C. D'Astous	D	0	0	0	1	4	0	-1	12	18:37	0:00
E. Cernak	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	9	6:47	0:04

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Johansson	42	34	8	.810	58:54	Loss
A. Vasilevskiy	0	0	0	–	0:00

BUF Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
T. Thompson	C	0	4	4	3	4	1	-1	0	19:39	6:07
J. Zucker	LW	2	1	3	6	0	1	+1	0	16:42	4:47
A. Tuch	RW	2	0	2	4	3	2	0	0	18:54	2:21
J. Doan	RW	2	0	2	4	2	0	-2	0	18:25	4:35
R. McLeod	C	0	1	1	2	1	1	+2	0	21:03	1:45
N. Ostlund	C	0	1	1	2	1	0	-1	2	16:34	1:57
Z. Benson	LW	0	1	1	1	2	0	+1	0	14:15	0:01
S. Carrick	C	1	0	1	3	3	0	-2	5	6:03	0:08
J. Norris	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	17:55	5:20
J. Quinn	RW	0	0	0	3	4	0	0	0	15:19	0:56
P. Krebs	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-3	5	8:46	0:00
B. Malenstyn	LW	0	0	0	0	3	0	-1	5	6:03	0:00
R. Dahlin	D	1	2	3	1	0	1	+2	5	26:16	3:40
B. Byram	D	0	3	3	7	1	0	0	12	20:12	3:13
M. Kesselring	D	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	7	6:03	0:00
O. Power	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	-4	2	27:08	0:25
M. Samuelsson	D	0	0	0	3	2	3	-3	2	24:57	0:10
Z. Metsa	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	8:55	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
U. Luukkonen	28	22	7	.786	59:21	Win
C. Ellis	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

TBL

Line 1Y. Gourde14:00Z. Girgensons13:03P. Holmberg12:04

Line 2N. Kucherov13:22B. Hagel13:09A. Cirelli12:00

Line 3J. Guentzel10:44B. Point11:55O. Bjorkstrand11:31

Line 4C. Perry7:59C. Geekie7:33S. Sabourin4:17

Pair 1D. Raddysh16:49J. Moser18:31

Pair 2R. McDonagh13:47C. D'Astous18:24

Pair 3V. Hedman15:35E. Cernak4:57

BUF

Line 1R. McLeod14:09J. Quinn14:07J. Zucker11:53

Line 2J. Norris11:03J. Doan11:09N. Ostlund13:02

Line 3T. Thompson12:00P. Krebs8:15A. Tuch11:38

Line 4S. Carrick5:55Z. Benson13:00B. Malenstyn5:29

Pair 1M. Samuelsson20:16O. Power23:16

Pair 2R. Dahlin17:59B. Byram14:23

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamZemgus Girgensons TBL Faces BUF, his team until Apr 20241 G, 1 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	TBL 3.6, BUF 3.2	TBL 7, BUF 8
Total goals	6.8	15
Shots on goal	TBL 29.3, BUF 27.0	TBL 28, BUF 42
Win chance	TBL 57%	BUF won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
BUF T. Thompson	3.3	3	0.93	4	39%	0
TBL N. Kucherov	3.1	5	1.53	3	36%	2
TBL B. Hagel	2.9	2	0.91	2	32%	1
TBL J. Guentzel	2.7	1	0.95	0	35%	0
BUF R. Dahlin	2.6	1	0.72	3	17%	1
TBL D. Raddysh	2.4	4	0.73	3	14%	0
BUF A. Tuch	2.4	4	0.76	2	30%	2
TBL B. Point	2.3	1	0.91	1	36%	1
BUF J. Doan	2.0	4	0.57	2	22%	2
TBL O. Bjorkstrand	1.9	2	0.54	0	21%	0
BUF J. Zucker	1.9	6	0.57	3	23%	2
BUF J. Quinn	1.9	3	0.53	0	18%	0
TBL C. Perry	1.8	1	0.51	1	23%	1
BUF O. Power	1.7	0	0.36	0	8%	0
TBL A. Cirelli	1.6	1	0.51	1	20%	0
BUF J. Norris	1.5	1	0.59	0	27%	0
TBL Y. Gourde	1.5	2	0.44	1	15%	0
BUF M. Samuelsson	1.4	3	0.35	0	9%	0
TBL V. Hedman	1.4	3	0.46	0	8%	0
TBL P. Holmberg	1.4	0	0.32	0	14%	0
TBL Z. Girgensons	1.3	1	0.21	1	12%	1
BUF Z. Benson	1.3	1	0.35	1	12%	0
BUF R. McLeod	1.3	2	0.60	1	19%	0
BUF B. Byram	1.3	7	0.43	3	12%	0
TBL J. Moser	1.2	3	0.25	3	5%	1
BUF M. Kesselring	1.1	1	0.15	1	4%	0
BUF N. Ostlund	1.0	2	0.41	1	16%	0
BUF P. Krebs	1.0	1	0.36	0	11%	0
TBL C. Geekie	1.0	1	0.21	1	11%	0
TBL C. D'Astous	0.9	1	0.28	0	4%	0
TBL E. Cernak	0.9	0	0.19	0	3%	0
TBL R. McDonagh	0.8	0	0.29	0	4%	0
BUF B. Malenstyn	0.8	0	0.15	0	7%	0
BUF S. Carrick	0.8	3	0.15	1	7%	1
BUF Z. Metsa	0.6	0	0.12	0	4%	0
TBL S. Sabourin	0.6	0	0.20	0	7%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.