Game Recap: TBL 2, BUF 4, April 6, 2026

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Game Recap

TBL2

FinalMon, Apr 6, 2026Every game that night

BUF4

BUF beat TBL 4-2, and the chances backed it up: 3.18 expected goals to 2.41. J. Guentzel led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). A. Tuch had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.3. U. Luukkonen stopped 23 of 25.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
TBL	1	1	0	2
BUF	2	1	1	4

1st 5:42BUFA. Tuch0.06 xG
1st 11:45TBLN. KucherovPP0.08 xG
1st 14:04BUFJ. Norris0.07 xG
2nd 3:56TBLJ. Guentzel0.14 xG
2nd 7:38BUFJ. Zucker0.09 xG
3rd 18:06BUFJ. QuinnEN0.40 xG

Team Stats

TBLBUF

25Shots on goal29

2.41Expected goals3.18

52Shot attempts53

185v5 shots on goal17

1/5Power play0/4

28Hits22

10Blocked shots10

12Penalty minutes14

17Giveaways11

5Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

TBL 2.41 xGBUF 3.18 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

TBL25 on goal, 2 scored

BUF30 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

TBL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Guentzel	C	1	1	2	6	1	0	-1	2	24:54	7:39
N. Kucherov	RW	1	0	1	3	0	0	-1	0	23:30	8:14
B. Point	C	0	1	1	2	1	0	-1	0	20:11	5:33
G. Goncalves	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	19:17	1:33
N. Paul	LW	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	0	18:05	3:10
O. Bjorkstrand	RW	0	0	0	1	5	1	0	0	14:57	5:40
Y. Gourde	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	-2	0	14:53	0:17
C. Perry	RW	0	0	0	1	0	1	-2	2	12:36	3:14
Z. Girgensons	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	2	11:29	0:00
P. Holmberg	RW	0	0	0	0	1	1	-2	2	8:21	1:07
M. Chaffee	RW	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	6:23	0:23
S. Sabourin	RW	0	0	0	0	5	0	0	0	5:58	0:00
D. Raddysh	D	0	2	2	4	0	0	-2	0	25:45	8:10
J. Moser	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	19:54	0:13
C. D'Astous	D	0	0	0	3	2	0	-1	2	18:02	1:17
E. Lilleberg	D	0	0	0	0	2	2	-1	0	16:58	0:00
R. McDonagh	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	-1	0	16:44	0:01
E. Cernak	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	2	13:58	0:04

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Vasilevskiy	28	25	3	.893	58:05	Loss
J. Johansson	0	0	0	–	0:00

BUF Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Zucker	LW	1	1	2	4	0	0	+2	0	13:44	5:38
A. Tuch	RW	1	0	1	6	2	0	0	4	17:59	1:51
Z. Benson	LW	0	1	1	2	1	0	+1	2	17:44	1:56
R. McLeod	C	0	1	1	0	0	0	+3	0	17:31	2:57
J. Norris	C	1	0	1	2	2	1	+1	0	17:10	4:43
J. Doan	RW	0	1	1	0	2	0	+1	2	14:40	1:35
J. Quinn	RW	1	0	1	4	0	0	+2	2	14:24	6:04
T. Thompson	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	-1	0	17:56	5:43
B. Malenstyn	LW	0	0	0	1	5	2	0	0	12:53	0:00
P. Krebs	C	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	12:37	0:00
J. Greenway	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	11:19	0:00
J. Dunne	C	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	2	7:58	0:00
B. Byram	D	0	2	2	1	0	0	+2	0	21:16	2:04
R. Dahlin	D	0	1	1	1	1	0	+2	0	23:01	5:34
M. Samuelsson	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	+2	0	22:44	0:00
O. Power	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	19:48	0:00
L. Schenn	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	12:54	0:00
L. Stanley	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	12:40	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
U. Luukkonen	25	23	2	.920	60:00	Win
C. Ellis	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

TBL

Line 1N. Kucherov13:11B. Point12:40J. Guentzel11:45

Line 2Z. Girgensons8:26Y. Gourde10:01P. Holmberg6:45

Line 3N. Paul12:23O. Bjorkstrand8:38G. Goncalves12:18

Line 4C. Perry8:02S. Sabourin5:58M. Chaffee6:00

Pair 1D. Raddysh15:21J. Moser13:22

Pair 2C. D'Astous14:41E. Lilleberg13:21

Pair 3R. McDonagh10:30E. Cernak10:28

BUF

Line 1Z. Benson12:18J. Doan11:21J. Norris10:45

Line 2T. Thompson10:56P. Krebs11:01A. Tuch11:16

Line 3J. Zucker7:59J. Quinn8:13R. McLeod8:58

Line 4B. Malenstyn8:40J. Dunne7:36J. Greenway7:15

Pair 1B. Byram14:12O. Power15:46

Pair 2M. Samuelsson14:07R. Dahlin14:06

Pair 3L. Schenn9:39L. Stanley9:42

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamZemgus Girgensons TBL Faces BUF, his team until Apr 20240 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	TBL 3.6, BUF 3.3	TBL 2, BUF 4
Total goals	6.9	6
Shots on goal	TBL 28.5, BUF 28.1	TBL 25, BUF 29
Win chance	TBL 54%	BUF won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
BUF T. Thompson	3.2	1	0.94	0	39%	0
TBL N. Kucherov	3.0	3	1.50	1	36%	1
TBL J. Guentzel	2.6	6	0.99	2	36%	1
TBL D. Raddysh	2.5	4	0.72	2	15%	0
BUF R. Dahlin	2.5	1	0.81	1	18%	0
BUF A. Tuch	2.3	6	0.74	1	30%	1
BUF J. Quinn	2.3	4	0.63	1	21%	1
TBL B. Point	2.2	2	0.90	1	35%	0
BUF J. Zucker	2.0	4	0.63	2	25%	1
BUF J. Doan	1.7	0	0.46	1	20%	0
BUF J. Norris	1.6	2	0.60	1	26%	1
BUF Z. Benson	1.5	2	0.45	1	14%	0
BUF O. Power	1.4	2	0.34	0	7%	0
TBL Y. Gourde	1.4	0	0.41	0	14%	0
TBL G. Goncalves	1.3	0	0.51	0	17%	0
BUF B. Byram	1.3	1	0.42	2	11%	0
TBL C. Perry	1.3	1	0.38	0	18%	0
BUF M. Samuelsson	1.3	1	0.36	0	8%	0
TBL O. Bjorkstrand	1.3	1	0.35	0	14%	0
TBL Z. Girgensons	1.2	0	0.22	0	11%	0
TBL J. Moser	1.2	2	0.29	0	6%	0
TBL P. Holmberg	1.2	0	0.29	0	12%	0
BUF R. McLeod	1.2	0	0.58	1	18%	0
TBL N. Paul	1.1	2	0.28	0	14%	0
BUF P. Krebs	1.1	1	0.39	0	11%	0
TBL C. D'Astous	1.1	3	0.40	0	7%	0
BUF L. Stanley	1.0	1	0.20	0	5%	0
BUF J. Greenway	0.9	1	0.21	0	9%	0
BUF B. Malenstyn	0.9	1	0.18	0	8%	0
TBL E. Lilleberg	0.9	0	0.24	0	4%	0
TBL R. McDonagh	0.8	0	0.33	0	5%	0
TBL E. Cernak	0.8	1	0.18	0	3%	0
TBL M. Chaffee	0.8	0	0.19	0	11%	0
BUF L. Schenn	0.8	0	0.11	0	3%	0
BUF J. Dunne	0.8	1	0.12	0	6%	0
TBL S. Sabourin	0.5	0	0.17	0	6%	0

Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.