TBL beat CAR 4-1 despite fewer good chances: 3.43 expected goals to 4.20. N. Kucherov scored three for TBL. N. Kucherov had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 3.1. A. Vasilevskiy stopped 20 of 21.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| CAR | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
- 1st 14:32CARJ. Staal0.25 xG
- 2nd 2:33TBLB. PointPP0.16 xG
- 3rd 11:06TBLN. KucherovPP0.07 xG
- 3rd 17:53TBLN. KucherovEN0.63 xG
- 3rd 19:44TBLN. KucherovEN0.77 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
TBL 3.43 xGCAR 4.20 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
TBL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Kucherov | RW | 3 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 21:55 | 4:56 |
| J. Guentzel | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 17:56 | 3:41 |
| B. Point | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 20:19 | 4:37 |
| N. Paul | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:34 | 2:01 |
| B. Hagel | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 20:28 | 1:41 |
| A. Cirelli | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:10 | 1:08 |
| Z. Girgensons | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:08 | 0:00 |
| M. Chaffee | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 12:13 | 0:00 |
| L. Glendening | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:50 | 0:00 |
| C. Geekie | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:07 | 1:11 |
| C. Atkinson | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 8:42 | 0:00 |
| V. Hedman | D | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 23:11 | 4:11 |
| E. Cernak | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 22:00 | 0:16 |
| R. McDonagh | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 20:40 | 0:05 |
| J. Moser | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | +1 | 0 | 18:54 | 1:50 |
| N. Perbix | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 12:09 | 0:04 |
| D. Raddysh | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 10:56 | 3:58 |
| E. Lilleberg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 10:48 | 0:06 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Vasilevskiy | 21 | 20 | 1 | .952 | 60:00 | Win |
| J. Johansson | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
CAR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Staal | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:00 | 0:06 |
| W. Carrier | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 11:23 | 0:04 |
| S. Jarvis | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | -2 | 2 | 21:06 | 4:10 |
| S. Aho | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 2 | 19:18 | 3:49 |
| M. Necas | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:49 | 4:07 |
| J. Kotkaniemi | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:22 | 1:41 |
| A. Svechnikov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 17:18 | 4:11 |
| J. Roslovic | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:42 | 1:27 |
| J. Martinook | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:17 | 0:03 |
| J. Blake | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:57 | 1:23 |
| J. Drury | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:59 | 1:25 |
| E. Robinson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9:43 | 0:00 |
| S. Gostisbehere | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 2 | 22:31 | 4:14 |
| D. Orlov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 20:13 | 0:00 |
| J. Slavin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 18:29 | 0:09 |
| J. Chatfield | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:20 | 0:00 |
| S. Walker | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 18:09 | 0:07 |
| B. Burns | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 16:58 | 1:19 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Andersen | 21 | 19 | 2 | .905 | 58:08 | Loss |
| P. Kochetkov | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | TBL 2.8, CAR 3.6 | TBL 4, CAR 1 |
| Total goals | 6.4 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | TBL 25.3, CAR 35.1 | TBL 23, CAR 21 |
| Win chance | CAR 62% | TBL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL N. Kucherov | 3.1 | 6 | 1.32 | 4 | 31% | 3 |
| CAR S. Aho | 3.0 | 2 | 1.13 | 0 | 37% | 0 |
| CAR M. Necas | 3.0 | 0 | 0.70 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| CAR A. Svechnikov | 2.9 | 5 | 0.93 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| TBL J. Guentzel | 2.9 | 2 | 0.82 | 2 | 30% | 0 |
| TBL B. Point | 2.6 | 1 | 0.90 | 1 | 35% | 1 |
| CAR S. Jarvis | 2.5 | 2 | 0.84 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| CAR B. Burns | 2.3 | 1 | 0.57 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| TBL B. Hagel | 2.1 | 3 | 0.75 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| TBL V. Hedman | 2.0 | 2 | 0.70 | 3 | 11% | 0 |
| CAR J. Slavin | 1.9 | 0 | 0.46 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| CAR J. Staal | 1.9 | 1 | 0.43 | 1 | 17% | 1 |
| CAR J. Martinook | 1.9 | 0 | 0.43 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| CAR J. Drury | 1.9 | 0 | 0.40 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| CAR D. Orlov | 1.8 | 2 | 0.46 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| CAR S. Gostisbehere | 1.8 | 3 | 0.62 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| CAR S. Walker | 1.8 | 2 | 0.29 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| TBL N. Paul | 1.8 | 0 | 0.42 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| CAR W. Carrier | 1.7 | 1 | 0.31 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| CAR J. Roslovic | 1.6 | 1 | 0.48 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| CAR J. Chatfield | 1.6 | 0 | 0.34 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| TBL A. Cirelli | 1.5 | 2 | 0.48 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| TBL C. Atkinson | 1.3 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| CAR J. Kotkaniemi | 1.3 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| CAR E. Robinson | 1.2 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| TBL Z. Girgensons | 1.1 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| TBL R. McDonagh | 1.1 | 2 | 0.30 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| TBL D. Raddysh | 1.1 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| TBL M. Chaffee | 0.9 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| TBL N. Perbix | 0.9 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| TBL E. Lilleberg | 0.8 | 0 | 0.12 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| TBL J. Moser | 0.8 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| TBL E. Cernak | 0.8 | 2 | 0.17 | 1 | 3% | 0 |
| TBL L. Glendening | 0.7 | 1 | 0.10 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 17 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.5 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.