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Game Recap
TBL1
CAR4
CAR beat TBL 4-1, with the chances close: 3.53 expected goals to 2.94. V. Hedman had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.5. P. Kochetkov stopped 23 of 24.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| CAR | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
- 1st 4:29CARS. JarvisSH0.08 xG
- 2nd 12:56CARJ. Martinook0.02 xG
- 2nd 19:15CARJ. Roslovic0.16 xG
- 3rd 4:38TBLG. Goncalves0.17 xG
- 3rd 6:26CARS. Walker0.06 xG
Team Stats
TBLCAR
24Shots on goal31
2.94Expected goals3.53
59Shot attempts61
205v5 shots on goal24
0/1Power play0/5
25Hits16
17Blocked shots16
8Penalty minutes4
12Giveaways15
4Takeaways1
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
TBL 2.94 xGCAR 3.53 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
TBL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Hagel | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:52 | 0:02 |
| G. Goncalves | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11:49 | 0:00 |
| J. Guentzel | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 21:28 | 1:58 |
| B. Point | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 19:01 | 1:58 |
| Y. Gourde | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16:43 | 0:00 |
| N. Kucherov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 15:17 | 1:58 |
| A. Cirelli | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:17 | 0:02 |
| O. Bjorkstrand | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:15 | 1:44 |
| L. Glendening | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:42 | 0:00 |
| Z. Girgensons | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:22 | 0:02 |
| N. Paul | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:55 | 0:00 |
| D. Raddysh | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 14:38 | 0:14 |
| V. Hedman | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 2 | 23:08 | 1:44 |
| R. McDonagh | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -1 | 0 | 19:18 | 0:16 |
| E. Cernak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:21 | 0:02 |
| J. Moser | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 16:35 | 0:00 |
| E. Lilleberg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14:57 | 0:00 |
| N. Perbix | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 12:22 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Vasilevskiy | 31 | 27 | 4 | .871 | 60:00 | Loss |
| J. Johansson | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
CAR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Aho | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:12 | 5:25 |
| S. Jarvis | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 19:54 | 4:49 |
| T. Hall | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:57 | 5:56 |
| J. Roslovic | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:51 | 4:02 |
| J. Staal | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 11:24 | 0:00 |
| J. Martinook | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 10:54 | 0:00 |
| L. Stankoven | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 16:40 | 5:55 |
| J. Blake | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 16:34 | 2:20 |
| J. Kotkaniemi | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:29 | 3:36 |
| E. Robinson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:48 | 0:00 |
| M. Jankowski | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:37 | 0:00 |
| T. Jost | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:04 | 0:11 |
| S. Walker | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 3 | +3 | 0 | 19:32 | 2:40 |
| J. Chatfield | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | +3 | 0 | 17:18 | 0:00 |
| J. Slavin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 22:35 | 0:13 |
| B. Burns | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 22:24 | 4:32 |
| S. Gostisbehere | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 17:50 | 4:44 |
| S. Morrow | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 15:12 | 0:47 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Kochetkov | 24 | 23 | 1 | .958 | 59:45 | Win |
| F. Andersen | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | TBL 2.9, CAR 3.2 | TBL 1, CAR 4 |
| Total goals | 6.0 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | TBL 24.8, CAR 32.0 | TBL 24, CAR 31 |
| Win chance | CAR 55% | CAR won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL N. Kucherov | 2.7 | 0 | 1.23 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| CAR S. Aho | 2.7 | 2 | 0.94 | 1 | 34% | 0 |
| CAR S. Jarvis | 2.6 | 4 | 0.79 | 1 | 31% | 1 |
| TBL J. Guentzel | 2.4 | 1 | 0.84 | 0 | 32% | 0 |
| TBL B. Hagel | 2.3 | 1 | 0.82 | 1 | 28% | 0 |
| CAR B. Burns | 2.3 | 1 | 0.43 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| TBL B. Point | 2.2 | 2 | 0.87 | 0 | 34% | 0 |
| CAR L. Stankoven | 2.1 | 2 | 0.42 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| CAR J. Blake | 1.9 | 4 | 0.38 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| CAR T. Hall | 1.9 | 3 | 0.50 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| TBL O. Bjorkstrand | 1.7 | 0 | 0.51 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| CAR S. Gostisbehere | 1.7 | 2 | 0.53 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| CAR J. Slavin | 1.7 | 1 | 0.39 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| CAR S. Walker | 1.7 | 4 | 0.21 | 1 | 6% | 1 |
| TBL A. Cirelli | 1.7 | 0 | 0.54 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| CAR J. Staal | 1.6 | 1 | 0.44 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| TBL N. Paul | 1.6 | 3 | 0.45 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| CAR J. Martinook | 1.5 | 2 | 0.42 | 1 | 15% | 1 |
| CAR J. Kotkaniemi | 1.5 | 1 | 0.39 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| TBL V. Hedman | 1.5 | 4 | 0.51 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| CAR S. Morrow | 1.4 | 2 | 0.18 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| CAR J. Chatfield | 1.4 | 0 | 0.23 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| CAR J. Roslovic | 1.3 | 1 | 0.37 | 1 | 15% | 1 |
| TBL Y. Gourde | 1.3 | 3 | 0.41 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| TBL D. Raddysh | 1.3 | 0 | 0.35 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| CAR E. Robinson | 1.1 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| CAR M. Jankowski | 1.1 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| TBL Z. Girgensons | 1.0 | 2 | 0.16 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| TBL G. Goncalves | 0.9 | 2 | 0.22 | 1 | 8% | 1 |
| CAR T. Jost | 0.9 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| TBL R. McDonagh | 0.8 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| TBL E. Cernak | 0.8 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| TBL J. Moser | 0.8 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| TBL L. Glendening | 0.7 | 2 | 0.12 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| TBL N. Perbix | 0.6 | 2 | 0.17 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| TBL E. Lilleberg | 0.6 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 1% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 17 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.