Game Recap: TBL 4, CAR 5, February 26, 2026

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Game Recap

TBL4

FinalThu, Feb 26, 2026Every game that night

CAR5

CAR beat TBL 5-4 despite fewer good chances: 2.67 expected goals to 3.17. J. Guentzel led the way with 3 points (0 G, 3 A). D. James had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.2. B. Bussi stopped 24 of 28.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
TBL	2	2	0	4
CAR	3	1	1	5

1st 1:43CARN. Ehlers0.08 xG
1st 2:56CARL. Stankoven0.22 xG
1st 6:41CART. Hall0.16 xG
1st 16:30TBLB. Hagel0.12 xG
1st 17:05TBLN. Kucherov0.12 xG
2nd 1:58TBLD. James0.20 xG
2nd 7:21CARS. Jarvis0.15 xG
2nd 14:02TBLB. PointPP0.17 xG
3rd 7:17CARS. AhoPP0.06 xG

Team Stats

TBLCAR

28Shots on goal33

3.17Expected goals2.67

56Shot attempts62

225v5 shots on goal27

1/2Power play1/2

15Hits23

20Blocked shots16

4Penalty minutes4

20Giveaways18

6Takeaways7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

TBL 3.17 xGCAR 2.67 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

TBL27 on goal, 4 scored

CAR33 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

TBL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Guentzel	C	0	3	3	4	1	1	+1	0	22:03	2:06
B. Point	C	1	1	2	2	1	0	0	0	22:06	2:06
N. Kucherov	RW	1	0	1	2	0	1	0	2	25:07	2:06
B. Hagel	LW	1	0	1	2	0	1	0	0	20:42	0:00
D. James	C	1	0	1	4	0	0	0	0	16:55	0:00
S. Sabourin	RW	0	1	1	0	2	0	0	0	5:00	0:00
Y. Gourde	C	0	0	0	3	4	0	-2	0	16:04	0:00
G. Goncalves	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	2	14:55	0:00
Z. Girgensons	C	0	0	0	0	2	1	-1	0	14:53	0:00
P. Holmberg	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	14:01	0:00
O. Bjorkstrand	RW	0	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	13:01	2:06
D. Raddysh	D	0	1	1	4	0	5	-1	0	26:01	2:06
J. Moser	D	0	1	1	2	1	0	0	0	19:42	0:00
R. McDonagh	D	0	1	1	0	0	0	+2	0	15:43	0:00
E. Cernak	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	+2	0	15:26	0:00
V. Hedman	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	-1	0	14:21	0:00
C. D'Astous	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	-3	0	13:19	0:00
D. Carlile	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	-1	0	11:04	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Johansson	33	28	5	.848	57:03	Loss
A. Vasilevskiy	0	0	0	–	0:00

CAR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Svechnikov	RW	0	2	2	3	1	2	+1	0	18:36	1:39
S. Jarvis	C	1	1	2	3	0	0	+1	0	18:21	1:24
L. Stankoven	C	1	1	2	2	2	0	+1	0	16:02	0:51
T. Hall	LW	1	1	2	2	1	0	+2	0	16:01	0:55
S. Aho	C	1	0	1	3	0	0	0	2	19:43	1:43
J. Blake	RW	0	1	1	1	1	0	+1	2	17:48	1:10
N. Ehlers	LW	1	0	1	3	0	0	-1	0	14:58	1:32
J. Martinook	LW	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	14:31	0:00
M. Jankowski	LW	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0	9:45	0:00
J. Staal	C	0	0	0	1	3	1	0	0	15:19	0:52
W. Carrier	LW	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	0	9:50	0:00
E. Robinson	LW	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	0	9:20	0:00
K. Miller	D	0	1	1	1	5	3	0	0	20:42	0:00
J. Chatfield	D	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	0	20:17	0:10
J. Slavin	D	0	0	0	2	1	2	+1	0	23:31	0:00
S. Gostisbehere	D	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	0	18:45	1:48
S. Walker	D	0	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	18:12	0:00
A. Nikishin	D	0	0	0	4	1	4	0	0	16:13	0:46

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
B. Bussi	28	24	4	.857	60:00	Win
F. Andersen	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

TBL

Line 1N. Kucherov20:04B. Point18:07G. Goncalves14:55

Line 2B. Hagel16:49D. James15:40J. Guentzel15:19

Line 3Y. Gourde14:29P. Holmberg14:01Z. Girgensons13:54

Line 4O. Bjorkstrand8:47S. Sabourin5:00

Pair 1D. Raddysh20:58J. Moser18:42

Pair 2R. McDonagh14:08E. Cernak13:52

Pair 3V. Hedman12:47C. D'Astous13:19

CAR

Line 1L. Stankoven14:58J. Blake16:25T. Hall14:53

Line 2S. Aho14:55A. Svechnikov15:28S. Jarvis14:12

Line 3J. Staal12:45J. Martinook12:26N. Ehlers12:11

Line 4M. Jankowski9:43W. Carrier9:50E. Robinson9:20

Pair 1J. Slavin19:43J. Chatfield17:35

Pair 2S. Walker17:01K. Miller18:10

Pair 3S. Gostisbehere16:54A. Nikishin15:26

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamJake Guentzel TBL Faces CAR, his team until May 20243 A, 4 SOG
BirthdayLogan Stankoven CAR Turns 23 that day1 G, 1 A, 2 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	TBL 3.0, CAR 3.3	TBL 4, CAR 5
Total goals	6.3	9
Shots on goal	TBL 24.1, CAR 30.3	TBL 28, CAR 33
Win chance	CAR 54%	CAR won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
CAR S. Jarvis	2.8	3	0.80	2	32%	1
TBL N. Kucherov	2.8	2	1.43	1	33%	1
TBL B. Hagel	2.6	2	0.94	1	31%	1
CAR N. Ehlers	2.5	3	0.76	1	27%	1
TBL J. Guentzel	2.4	4	0.93	3	34%	0
CAR A. Svechnikov	2.4	3	0.74	2	27%	0
CAR S. Aho	2.3	3	0.89	1	32%	1
CAR S. Walker	2.0	0	0.21	0	7%	0
TBL D. Raddysh	2.0	4	0.65	1	13%	0
CAR S. Gostisbehere	1.9	2	0.59	0	12%	0
TBL B. Point	1.9	2	0.75	2	29%	1
CAR L. Stankoven	1.8	2	0.39	2	16%	1
CAR J. Blake	1.7	1	0.42	1	19%	0
CAR T. Hall	1.6	2	0.43	2	18%	1
CAR J. Slavin	1.6	2	0.29	0	7%	0
TBL O. Bjorkstrand	1.6	0	0.49	0	18%	0
CAR J. Staal	1.5	1	0.44	0	18%	0
CAR J. Chatfield	1.5	0	0.24	1	8%	0
CAR K. Miller	1.5	1	0.33	1	8%	0
TBL Y. Gourde	1.4	3	0.44	0	14%	0
CAR J. Martinook	1.3	1	0.37	1	15%	0
TBL P. Holmberg	1.3	1	0.34	0	14%	0
TBL Z. Girgensons	1.3	0	0.23	0	12%	0
CAR A. Nikishin	1.3	4	0.26	0	7%	0
TBL D. James	1.2	4	0.30	1	12%	1
CAR W. Carrier	1.1	2	0.21	0	12%	0
CAR E. Robinson	1.1	2	0.25	0	12%	0
TBL V. Hedman	1.0	0	0.35	0	6%	0
TBL J. Moser	1.0	2	0.23	1	5%	0
TBL C. D'Astous	0.9	0	0.29	0	5%	0
CAR M. Jankowski	0.9	1	0.25	1	13%	0
TBL G. Goncalves	0.9	2	0.34	0	11%	0
TBL R. McDonagh	0.8	0	0.26	1	4%	0
TBL E. Cernak	0.7	2	0.16	0	3%	0
TBL D. Carlile	0.7	0	0.10	0	4%	0
TBL S. Sabourin	0.5	0	0.16	1	6%	0

Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.