Game Recap: TBL 3, CBJ 1, November 12, 2026

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Game Recap

TBL3

FinalThu, Nov 12, 2026Every game that night

CBJ1

TBL beat CBJ 3-1, with the chances close: 3.08 expected goals to 2.55. B. Hagel led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). B. Hagel had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.8. D. Hildeby stopped 28 of 29.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
TBL	1	0	2	3
CBJ	1	0	0	1

1st 2:57TBLB. Hagel0.17 xG
1st 12:20CBJM. KniesPP0.10 xG
3rd 1:06TBLJ. Guentzel0.09 xG
3rd 7:41TBLB. Hagel0.12 xG

Team Stats

TBLCBJ

28Shots on goal29

3.08Expected goals2.55

53Shot attempts72

285v5 shots on goal22

0/0Power play1/2

20Hits12

17Blocked shots6

14Penalty minutes10

16Giveaways10

2Takeaways1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

TBL 3.08 xGCBJ 2.55 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

TBL27 on goal, 3 scored

CBJ29 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

TBL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Hagel	LW	2	1	3	6	0	1	+3	2	19:40	0:00
J. Guentzel	C	1	1	2	3	0	2	+3	0	21:35	0:00
N. Kucherov	RW	0	2	2	2	1	0	+3	0	20:53	0:00
Z. Girgensons	C	0	0	0	1	4	3	0	0	21:32	0:00
I. Mikheyev	RW	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	2	18:11	0:00
P. Holmberg	RW	0	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	17:53	0:00
C. Geekie	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	12:13	0:00
S. O'Reilly	RW	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	12:00	0:00
G. Goncalves	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	11:36	0:00
J. Viel	LW	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	5	11:07	0:00
S. Sabourin	RW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	5	10:51	0:00
C. D'Astous	D	0	1	1	3	1	1	+2	0	17:09	0:00
J. Carlson	D	0	1	1	3	0	0	+2	0	15:43	0:00
J. Moser	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	23:54	0:00
R. McDonagh	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	0	20:42	0:00
V. Hedman	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	18:42	0:00
M. Crozier	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	+1	0	14:26	0:00
E. Lilleberg	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	9:34	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Hildeby	29	28	1	.966	60:00	Win
A. Vasilevskiy	0	0	0	–	0:00

CBJ Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
K. Johnson	C	0	1	1	4	0	0	-3	0	21:01	1:31
M. Knies	LW	1	0	1	3	3	0	-2	0	20:59	1:31
S. Monahan	C	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	9:58	0:19
C. Coyle	C	0	0	0	3	1	2	-1	0	22:36	1:31
A. Fantilli	C	0	0	0	2	2	0	-2	0	21:56	0:48
V. Nichushkin	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	20:08	0:48
C. Sillinger	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	19:09	1:12
M. Olivier	RW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	5	15:21	0:00
D. Voronkov	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	11:41	0:48
J. Williams	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	9:34	0:00
S. Lorentz	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	8:10	0:00
R. Lomberg	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	5	5:22	0:00
Z. Werenski	D	0	0	0	5	0	3	-1	0	26:17	2:19
D. Severson	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	21:34	0:00
I. Provorov	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-2	0	20:45	0:48
D. Mateychuk	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	19:27	0:00
D. Fabbro	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	-2	0	15:24	0:00
J. Christiansen	D	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	14:58	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Greaves	28	25	3	.893	55:40	Loss
C. Talbot	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

TBL

Line 1N. Kucherov18:53B. Hagel17:18J. Guentzel18:27

Line 2Z. Girgensons17:54I. Mikheyev14:20P. Holmberg15:35

Line 3G. Goncalves11:15S. O'Reilly12:00C. Geekie12:13

Line 4S. Sabourin10:51J. Viel11:07

Pair 1J. Moser19:55V. Hedman16:46

Pair 2J. Carlson15:18C. D'Astous16:46

Pair 3R. McDonagh15:59M. Crozier12:34

CBJ

Line 1K. Johnson16:40M. Knies16:30A. Fantilli18:13

Line 2C. Coyle18:11C. Sillinger16:25M. Olivier13:58

Line 3V. Nichushkin17:56S. Monahan9:39D. Voronkov9:27

Line 4S. Lorentz8:10J. Williams9:34R. Lomberg5:22

Pair 1D. Severson18:42Z. Werenski21:05

Pair 2D. Mateychuk18:01J. Christiansen14:58

Pair 3I. Provorov18:30D. Fabbro15:24

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

9 of 18 overs hit (50%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	SOG	Result
CBJ Z. Werenski	3.5	+132	-165	5	Over
CBJ A. Fantilli	2.5	+110	-140	2	Under
TBL B. Hagel	2.5	-144	+115	6	Over
TBL J. Guentzel	2.5	+105	-118	3	Over
TBL N. Kucherov	2.5	-160	+125	2	Under
CBJ C. Coyle	1.5	-115	+100	3	Over
TBL C. D'Astous	1.5	+105	-125	3	Over
CBJ C. Sillinger	1.5	+110	-125	1	Under
CBJ D. Mateychuk	1.5	+135	-170	2	Over
CBJ D. Voronkov	1.5	+130	-160	0	Under
CBJ I. Provorov	1.5	-128	+110	1	Under
TBL J. Carlson	1.5	-140	+115	3	Over
CBJ K. Johnson	1.5	-185	+145	4	Over
CBJ M. Knies	1.5	+102	-111	3	Over
CBJ M. Olivier	1.5	-120	-105	1	Under
CBJ S. Monahan	1.5	+110	-120	0	Under
TBL S. O'Reilly	1.5	-110	-105	0	Under
CBJ V. Nichushkin	1.5	-110	+105	0	Under

3 of 36 overs hit (8%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	G	Result
CBJ A. Fantilli	0.5	+250	-320	0	Under
TBL B. Hagel	0.5	+180	-210	2	Over
CBJ C. Coyle	0.5	+285	-400	0	Under
TBL C. D'Astous	0.5	+850	-1200	0	Under
TBL C. Geekie	0.5	+600	-1400	0	Under
CBJ C. Sillinger	0.5	+525	-750	0	Under
CBJ D. Fabbro	0.5	+1800	-2500	0	Under
CBJ D. Mateychuk	0.5	+750	-2500	0	Under
CBJ D. Severson	0.5	+950	-2500	0	Under
CBJ D. Voronkov	0.5	+425	-650	0	Under
TBL E. Lilleberg	0.5	+2000	–	0	Under
TBL G. Goncalves	0.5	+600	–	0	Under
TBL I. Mikheyev	0.5	+470	-750	0	Under
CBJ I. Provorov	0.5	+800	-1200	0	Under
TBL J. Carlson	0.5	+550	-800	0	Under
CBJ J. Christiansen	0.5	+2000	-4000	0	Under
TBL J. Guentzel	0.5	+156	-200	1	Over
TBL J. Moser	0.5	+1600	-2800	0	Under
TBL J. Viel	0.5	+950	-2000	0	Under
CBJ J. Williams	0.5	+900	-1600	0	Under
CBJ K. Johnson	0.5	+260	-320	0	Under
TBL M. Crozier	0.5	+2000	–	0	Under
CBJ M. Knies	0.5	+250	-330	1	Over
CBJ M. Olivier	0.5	+420	-650	0	Under
TBL N. Kucherov	0.5	+155	-180	0	Under
TBL P. Holmberg	0.5	+500	-800	0	Under
CBJ R. Lomberg	0.5	+1300	-1400	0	Under
TBL R. McDonagh	0.5	+1550	-3500	0	Under
CBJ S. Lorentz	0.5	+900	-1400	0	Under
CBJ S. Monahan	0.5	+340	-600	0	Under
TBL S. O'Reilly	0.5	+325	-475	0	Under
TBL S. Sabourin	0.5	+1200	-2000	0	Under
TBL V. Hedman	0.5	+1050	-1600	0	Under
CBJ V. Nichushkin	0.5	+350	-550	0	Under
TBL Z. Girgensons	0.5	+800	-1200	0	Under
CBJ Z. Werenski	0.5	+325	-500	0	Under

7 of 17 overs hit (41%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	A	Result
CBJ A. Fantilli	0.5	+160	-200	0	Under
TBL B. Hagel	0.5	+160	-190	1	Over
CBJ C. Coyle	0.5	+165	-200	0	Under
TBL C. D'Astous	0.5	+165	-190	1	Over
CBJ C. Sillinger	0.5	+280	-375	0	Under
CBJ D. Severson	0.5	+255	-320	0	Under
CBJ I. Provorov	0.5	+220	-300	0	Under
TBL J. Carlson	0.5	+150	-165	1	Over
TBL J. Guentzel	0.5	+130	-154	1	Over
CBJ K. Johnson	0.5	+145	-190	1	Over
CBJ M. Knies	0.5	+164	-210	0	Under
TBL N. Kucherov	0.5	-150	+125	2	Over
CBJ S. Monahan	0.5	+200	-240	1	Over
TBL S. O'Reilly	0.5	+210	-245	0	Under
TBL V. Hedman	0.5	+230	-290	0	Under
CBJ V. Nichushkin	0.5	+230	-270	0	Under
CBJ Z. Werenski	0.5	-125	+105	0	Under

8 of 20 overs hit (40%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	P	Result
TBL N. Kucherov	1.5	+155	-170	2	Over
CBJ A. Fantilli	0.5	-115	+105	0	Under
TBL B. Hagel	0.5	-150	+130	3	Over
CBJ C. Coyle	0.5	-110	-105	0	Under
TBL C. D'Astous	0.5	+125	-135	1	Over
CBJ C. Sillinger	0.5	+190	-210	0	Under
CBJ D. Severson	0.5	+190	-230	0	Under
CBJ D. Voronkov	0.5	+180	-250	0	Under
CBJ I. Provorov	0.5	+165	-200	0	Under
TBL J. Carlson	0.5	+105	-115	1	Over
TBL J. Guentzel	0.5	-175	+146	2	Over
CBJ K. Johnson	0.5	-130	+106	1	Over
CBJ M. Knies	0.5	-120	+100	1	Over
CBJ M. Olivier	0.5	+200	-280	0	Under
TBL P. Holmberg	0.5	+190	-260	0	Under
CBJ S. Monahan	0.5	+110	-125	1	Over
TBL S. O'Reilly	0.5	+100	-120	0	Under
TBL V. Hedman	0.5	+170	-200	0	Under
CBJ V. Nichushkin	0.5	+125	-130	0	Under
CBJ Z. Werenski	0.5	-185	+170	0	Under

3 of 14 overs hit (21%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	PPP	Result
CBJ A. Fantilli	0.5	+340	-375	0	Under
TBL B. Hagel	0.5	+380	-500	0	Under
CBJ C. Coyle	0.5	+300	-425	0	Under
TBL C. D'Astous	0.5	+275	-400	0	Under
CBJ D. Voronkov	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
TBL J. Carlson	0.5	+310	-425	0	Under
TBL J. Guentzel	0.5	+185	-235	0	Under
CBJ K. Johnson	0.5	+275	-375	1	Over
CBJ M. Knies	0.5	+310	-450	1	Over
TBL N. Kucherov	0.5	+145	-160	0	Under
CBJ S. Monahan	0.5	+340	-750	1	Over
TBL S. O'Reilly	0.5	+333	-500	0	Under
CBJ V. Nichushkin	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
CBJ Z. Werenski	0.5	+230	-275	0	Under

Player	Line	Over	Under	SV	Result
CBJ J. Greaves	24.5	+100	-114	25	Over
TBL D. Hildeby	23.5	-130	+105	28	Over

Player	Line	Over	Under	BLK	Result
CBJ M. Olivier	0.5	-200	+135	0	Under

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

Storylines That Played Out

MilestoneJake Guentzel TBL Plays his 700th game1 G, 1 A, 3 SOG
MilestoneMathieu Olivier CBJ 2 points from 100Not yet: 1 SOG
MilestoneMatthew Knies CBJ 2 assists from 100Not yet: 1 G, 3 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	TBL 3.2, CBJ 3.0	TBL 3, CBJ 1
Total goals	6.2	4
Shots on goal	TBL 26.8, CBJ 26.5	TBL 28, CBJ 29
Win chance	TBL 52%	TBL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
CBJ Z. Werenski	3.3	5	1.01	0	22%	0
TBL N. Kucherov	3.0	2	1.37	2	34%	0
TBL B. Hagel	2.8	6	0.92	3	34%	2
CBJ A. Fantilli	2.7	2	0.77	0	31%	0
TBL J. Guentzel	2.3	3	0.88	2	31%	1
CBJ K. Johnson	1.9	4	0.69	1	24%	0
TBL J. Carlson	1.9	3	0.60	1	14%	0
CBJ I. Provorov	1.7	1	0.37	0	9%	0
CBJ C. Coyle	1.7	3	0.69	0	23%	0
CBJ V. Nichushkin	1.7	0	0.60	0	25%	0
CBJ M. Olivier	1.7	1	0.46	0	21%	0
CBJ C. Sillinger	1.6	1	0.44	0	16%	0
CBJ M. Knies	1.6	3	0.73	1	26%	1
CBJ D. Voronkov	1.5	0	0.41	0	19%	0
TBL M. Crozier	1.4	2	0.25	0	6%	0
TBL C. D'Astous	1.4	3	0.50	1	11%	0
TBL P. Holmberg	1.4	0	0.38	0	16%	0
TBL V. Hedman	1.4	1	0.44	0	10%	0
TBL I. Mikheyev	1.3	3	0.37	0	17%	0
CBJ S. Monahan	1.3	0	0.51	1	18%	0
TBL G. Goncalves	1.2	1	0.43	0	14%	0
TBL Z. Girgensons	1.2	1	0.23	0	11%	0
CBJ D. Mateychuk	1.2	2	0.35	0	10%	0
CBJ D. Severson	1.2	1	0.43	0	10%	0
TBL J. Moser	1.1	1	0.26	0	7%	0
CBJ D. Fabbro	1.1	2	0.21	0	5%	0
TBL C. Geekie	1.0	1	0.24	0	11%	0
CBJ S. Lorentz	1.0	0	0.24	0	10%	0
TBL J. Viel	0.9	0	0.19	0	9%	0
CBJ J. Christiansen	0.9	3	0.16	0	3%	0
CBJ R. Lomberg	0.9	1	0.14	0	7%	0
TBL R. McDonagh	0.8	1	0.31	0	5%	0
TBL S. Sabourin	0.5	0	0.18	0	7%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 33 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.