Game Recap: TBL 8, CGY 3, December 12, 2024

Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!

Game Recap

TBL8

FinalThu, Dec 12, 2024Every game that night

CGY3

TBL beat CGY 8-3, and the chances backed it up: 3.40 expected goals to 1.52. N. Kucherov led the way with 6 points (1 G, 5 A). C. Geekie had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.2. A. Vasilevskiy stopped 19 of 22.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
TBL	1	3	4	8
CGY	1	2	0	3

1st 4:42CGYJ. Huberdeau0.10 xG
1st 18:40TBLN. Kucherov0.22 xG
2nd 6:25TBLJ. Guentzel0.06 xG
2nd 7:55TBLB. PointPP0.16 xG
2nd 11:05TBLA. CirelliPP0.53 xG
2nd 12:14CGYN. Kadri0.17 xG
2nd 14:50CGYC. Zary0.14 xG
3rd 0:43TBLB. Hagel0.20 xG
3rd 11:34TBLJ. GuentzelPP0.21 xG
3rd 13:24TBLC. Geekie0.10 xG
3rd 17:21TBLJ. Guentzel0.11 xG

Team Stats

TBLCGY

26Shots on goal22

3.40Expected goals1.52

62Shot attempts49

215v5 shots on goal22

3/3Power play0/0

13Hits17

15Blocked shots20

0Penalty minutes6

10Giveaways19

7Takeaways9

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

TBL 3.40 xGCGY 1.52 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

TBL26 on goal, 8 scored

CGY20 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

TBL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	TOI	PP TOI
N. Kucherov	RW	1	5	6	1	0	0	+2	19:11	4:06
B. Point	C	1	3	4	3	0	1	+1	18:30	4:06
J. Guentzel	C	3	0	3	4	0	0	+1	18:17	4:06
A. Cirelli	C	1	2	3	2	0	0	+1	15:32	1:15
B. Hagel	LW	1	1	2	2	0	2	+1	17:37	2:51
C. Geekie	C	1	0	1	6	2	2	+1	12:53	0:00
N. Paul	LW	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	16:19	0:00
M. Chaffee	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	15:38	0:00
G. Goncalves	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	14:06	0:00
L. Glendening	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	12:05	0:00
Z. Girgensons	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	+1	11:49	0:00
M. Eyssimont	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	11:44	0:00
D. Raddysh	D	0	1	1	2	0	0	+3	23:38	4:00
J. Moser	D	0	1	1	1	0	3	0	12:23	0:00
R. McDonagh	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	+1	24:57	0:06
E. Lilleberg	D	0	0	0	0	3	2	0	22:25	0:00
N. Perbix	D	0	0	0	2	1	0	+1	21:19	0:00
S. Santini	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	11:37	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Vasilevskiy	22	19	3	.864	60:00	Win
J. Johansson	0	0	0	–	0:00

CGY Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Huberdeau	LW	1	1	2	3	0	0	-1	0	18:43	0:00
N. Kadri	C	1	0	1	2	0	1	-1	2	18:19	0:00
B. Coleman	LW	0	1	1	4	1	1	0	0	16:33	0:00
C. Zary	C	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	2	14:37	0:00
M. Backlund	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	18:41	0:00
M. Coronato	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	15:54	0:00
M. Pospisil	C	0	0	0	1	5	0	0	0	15:20	0:00
Y. Sharangovich	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-2	0	15:09	0:00
A. Kuzmenko	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	15:01	0:00
K. Rooney	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	10:52	0:00
W. Duehr	RW	0	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	8:48	0:00
R. Lomberg	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	7:50	0:00
K. Bahl	D	0	1	1	1	0	3	0	0	23:25	0:00
R. Andersson	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	23:33	0:00
D. Miromanov	D	0	0	0	1	0	7	-3	0	19:47	0:00
M. Weegar	D	0	0	0	0	4	3	-3	0	18:53	0:00
J. Bean	D	0	0	0	3	0	0	+1	2	18:01	0:00
B. Pachal	D	0	0	0	0	3	1	+1	0	16:28	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Vladar	26	18	8	.692	60:00	Loss
D. Wolf	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

HometownBrayden Point TBL Plays in his hometown1 G, 3 A, 3 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	TBL 3.4, CGY 3.2	TBL 8, CGY 3
Total goals	6.6	11
Shots on goal	TBL 28.3, CGY 31.1	TBL 26, CGY 22
Win chance	TBL 54%	TBL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
CGY N. Kadri	3.2	2	0.86	1	29%	1
TBL N. Kucherov	3.2	1	1.54	6	34%	1
TBL J. Guentzel	3.0	4	1.05	3	37%	3
TBL B. Hagel	2.5	2	1.02	2	32%	1
CGY M. Backlund	2.5	2	0.53	0	18%	0
TBL B. Point	2.5	3	1.11	4	40%	1
CGY M. Weegar	2.3	0	0.57	0	14%	0
CGY Y. Sharangovich	2.2	0	0.62	0	27%	0
CGY B. Coleman	2.1	4	0.53	1	23%	0
CGY M. Coronato	2.1	1	0.46	0	19%	0
CGY R. Andersson	1.9	2	0.53	0	12%	0
CGY J. Huberdeau	1.9	3	0.82	2	23%	1
TBL N. Paul	1.8	0	0.54	0	22%	0
CGY M. Pospisil	1.8	1	0.46	0	14%	0
TBL M. Eyssimont	1.8	0	0.26	0	11%	0
CGY C. Zary	1.7	1	0.52	1	19%	1
TBL A. Cirelli	1.6	2	0.58	3	20%	1
CGY A. Kuzmenko	1.5	0	0.66	0	26%	0
CGY D. Miromanov	1.5	1	0.29	0	8%	0
TBL C. Geekie	1.2	6	0.33	1	14%	1
TBL Z. Girgensons	1.1	1	0.21	0	11%	0
CGY B. Pachal	1.0	0	0.13	0	4%	0
CGY K. Bahl	1.0	1	0.24	1	4%	0
TBL M. Chaffee	1.0	0	0.32	0	15%	0
CGY W. Duehr	1.0	0	0.27	0	12%	0
TBL D. Raddysh	1.0	2	0.30	1	5%	0
TBL R. McDonagh	0.9	1	0.31	0	3%	0
CGY J. Bean	0.9	3	0.22	0	6%	0
CGY K. Rooney	0.9	0	0.15	0	8%	0
TBL J. Moser	0.9	1	0.29	1	6%	0
CGY R. Lomberg	0.8	1	0.14	0	8%	0
TBL N. Perbix	0.8	2	0.24	0	4%	0
TBL G. Goncalves	0.8	0	0.19	0	11%	0
TBL S. Santini	0.8	1	0.17	0	3%	0
TBL L. Glendening	0.7	0	0.13	0	9%	0
TBL E. Lilleberg	0.7	0	0.19	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.