Game Recap: TBL 4, CHI 3 (OT), January 24, 2025

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Game Recap

TBL4

Final/OTFri, Jan 24, 2025Every game that night

CHI3

TBL beat CHI 4-3 in overtime, and the chances backed it up: 3.84 expected goals to 1.92. TBL outshot CHI 40 to 14. N. Kucherov led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). D. Raddysh had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.6. J. Johansson stopped 11 of 14.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
TBL	1	1	1	1	4
CHI	2	1	0	0	3

1st 10:59TBLM. ChaffeePP0.11 xG
1st 16:29CHIC. Dach0.06 xG
1st 18:47CHIF. Nazar0.18 xG
2nd 4:59CHIL. Crevier0.06 xG
2nd 19:52TBLN. Paul0.11 xG
3rd 19:18TBLJ. GuentzelPP0.17 xG
OT 0:58TBLN. KucherovPP0.12 xG

Team Stats

TBLCHI

40Shots on goal14

3.84Expected goals1.92

63Shot attempts42

325v5 shots on goal14

3/3Power play0/2

17Hits17

12Blocked shots10

4Penalty minutes6

18Giveaways13

7Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

TBL 3.84 xGCHI 1.92 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

TBL39 on goal, 4 scored

CHI14 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

TBL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Kucherov	RW	1	2	3	2	0	0	-2	2	25:04	3:10
J. Guentzel	C	1	1	2	5	0	1	-2	0	20:24	3:04
B. Point	C	0	1	1	4	1	0	-1	0	19:28	3:10
B. Hagel	LW	0	1	1	2	1	1	0	0	18:08	0:32
N. Paul	LW	1	0	1	3	1	0	+1	0	17:12	0:04
M. Chaffee	RW	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	8:38	2:00
A. Cirelli	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	0	17:26	0:00
Z. Girgensons	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	14:40	0:00
C. Geekie	C	0	0	0	2	4	2	0	0	12:59	0:00
L. Glendening	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	10:39	0:31
M. Eyssimont	C	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	10:18	0:00
C. Atkinson	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	6:27	0:00
V. Hedman	D	0	2	2	3	0	2	-1	0	21:56	1:02
D. Raddysh	D	0	1	1	6	2	1	-2	2	20:11	2:08
R. McDonagh	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	-1	0	22:57	0:00
M. Crozier	D	0	0	0	3	2	0	-1	0	20:52	0:00
E. Lilleberg	D	0	0	0	2	3	1	0	0	18:24	0:00
N. Perbix	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	14:58	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Johansson	14	11	3	.786	60:09	Win
A. Vasilevskiy	0	0	0	–	0:00

CHI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
F. Nazar	C	1	1	2	1	0	0	+2	0	16:05	1:10
C. Bedard	C	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0	20:11	2:57
R. Donato	C	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	0	14:41	2:44
N. Foligno	LW	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	14:04	0:00
C. Dach	C	1	0	1	1	1	2	+1	2	12:30	1:15
L. Reichel	LW	0	1	1	1	1	0	+1	0	11:32	1:16
T. Bertuzzi	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	18:54	2:42
J. Dickinson	C	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	17:40	0:00
T. Teravainen	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	17:13	2:50
I. Mikheyev	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	16:57	0:00
P. Kurashev	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	+1	0	11:46	1:03
P. Maroon	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	10:59	0:00
L. Crevier	D	1	0	1	2	2	1	+1	0	21:17	0:03
A. Vlasic	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	+1	0	24:40	3:13
A. Martinez	D	0	0	0	0	2	2	+1	2	20:42	0:47
T. Brodie	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	18:50	0:00
N. Allan	D	0	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	16:52	0:00
E. Del Mastro	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	15:49	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Soderblom	40	36	4	.900	60:58	OT loss
P. Mrazek	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamIlya Mikheyev TBL First game back in Chicago, his team until Apr 20261 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	TBL 3.7, CHI 2.6	TBL 4, CHI 3
Total goals	6.3	7
Shots on goal	TBL 31.4, CHI 26.4	TBL 40, CHI 14
Win chance	TBL 66%	TBL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
TBL N. Kucherov	3.7	2	1.78	3	40%	1
TBL B. Hagel	2.8	2	1.05	1	34%	0
TBL J. Guentzel	2.8	5	1.04	2	38%	1
TBL B. Point	2.6	4	1.15	1	43%	0
CHI C. Bedard	2.5	1	0.88	1	26%	0
TBL V. Hedman	2.3	3	0.90	2	13%	0
TBL A. Cirelli	2.2	2	0.77	0	27%	0
CHI T. Bertuzzi	2.0	1	0.66	0	27%	0
CHI R. Donato	2.0	0	0.47	1	19%	0
TBL N. Paul	1.9	3	0.57	1	24%	1
CHI I. Mikheyev	1.8	1	0.40	0	20%	0
TBL M. Eyssimont	1.7	2	0.24	0	11%	0
TBL D. Raddysh	1.6	6	0.52	1	7%	0
CHI T. Teravainen	1.5	0	0.64	0	21%	0
CHI N. Foligno	1.5	1	0.44	1	18%	0
CHI F. Nazar	1.3	1	0.34	2	14%	1
CHI A. Vlasic	1.3	1	0.29	0	5%	0
CHI C. Dach	1.3	1	0.33	1	11%	1
CHI J. Dickinson	1.3	0	0.37	0	17%	0
TBL Z. Girgensons	1.3	1	0.19	0	11%	0
CHI A. Martinez	1.1	0	0.27	0	7%	0
TBL C. Atkinson	1.1	1	0.24	0	11%	0
CHI L. Crevier	1.1	2	0.19	1	6%	1
CHI L. Reichel	1.1	1	0.29	1	11%	0
TBL M. Crozier	1.1	3	0.16	0	3%	0
CHI P. Kurashev	1.1	2	0.35	0	12%	0
TBL R. McDonagh	1.0	0	0.35	0	4%	0
TBL C. Geekie	1.0	2	0.28	0	13%	0
TBL N. Perbix	1.0	0	0.31	0	5%	0
TBL M. Chaffee	0.9	2	0.25	1	14%	1
CHI P. Maroon	0.8	1	0.23	0	8%	0
TBL E. Lilleberg	0.8	2	0.24	0	2%	0
TBL L. Glendening	0.7	0	0.12	0	8%	0
CHI T. Brodie	0.5	1	0.22	0	3%	0
CHI N. Allan	0.5	0	0.21	0	4%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.