Game Recap: TBL 2, CHI 1 (SO), January 23, 2026

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Game Recap

TBL2

Final/SOFri, Jan 23, 2026Every game that night

CHI1

TBL beat CHI 2-1 in a shootout, and the chances backed it up: 4.02 expected goals to 2.42. TBL outshot CHI 31 to 19. D. Raddysh had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.4. A. Vasilevskiy stopped 18 of 19.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	SO	T
TBL	0	1	0	1	2
CHI	1	0	0	0	1

1st 17:42CHIR. Greene0.40 xG
2nd 18:42TBLN. Kucherov0.12 xG

Team Stats

TBLCHI

31Shots on goal19

4.02Expected goals2.42

72Shot attempts40

265v5 shots on goal12

0/3Power play0/3

18Hits16

10Blocked shots13

9Penalty minutes9

16Giveaways19

4Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

TBL 4.02 xGCHI 2.42 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

TBL31 on goal, 1 scored

CHI19 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

TBL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Kucherov	RW	1	0	1	1	0	0	+1	0	23:48	5:41
B. Hagel	LW	0	1	1	2	1	0	0	0	23:45	5:32
A. Cirelli	C	0	1	1	2	0	1	+1	0	19:21	0:19
J. Guentzel	C	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	0	22:22	5:46
Y. Gourde	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	17:16	0:16
Z. Girgensons	C	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	15:32	0:11
G. Goncalves	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	15:16	0:19
P. Holmberg	RW	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	14:46	0:14
O. Bjorkstrand	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	13:57	5:26
D. James	C	0	0	0	2	2	1	-1	0	12:38	0:00
N. Paul	LW	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	9:35	0:00
J. Finley	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	7	1:01	0:00
D. Raddysh	D	0	0	0	5	1	1	-1	2	26:51	5:25
J. Moser	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	0	24:51	0:00
C. D'Astous	D	0	0	0	0	4	1	+1	0	20:51	0:42
E. Cernak	D	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	19:33	0:09
M. Crozier	D	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	0	15:16	0:00
D. Carlile	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	12:21	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Vasilevskiy	19	18	1	.947	65:00	Win
J. Johansson	0	0	0	–	0:00

CHI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
R. Greene	C	1	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	17:04	1:25
O. Moore	C	0	1	1	0	1	0	+1	0	13:32	1:24
N. Lardis	LW	0	1	1	1	1	1	+1	0	12:10	1:20
C. Bedard	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	21:36	4:24
A. Burakovsky	LW	0	0	0	4	2	1	0	0	21:26	4:20
F. Nazar	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	20:37	4:23
I. Mikheyev	RW	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	20:16	0:17
T. Bertuzzi	LW	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	0	18:12	4:24
J. Dickinson	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	15:20	0:13
R. Donato	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	12:09	1:06
L. Slaggert	LW	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	11:20	0:00
N. Foligno	LW	0	0	0	0	2	1	+1	5	5:41	0:33
A. Vlasic	D	0	0	0	2	1	3	-1	0	23:42	0:03
A. Levshunov	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	2	21:59	4:40
W. Kaiser	D	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	21:45	0:00
L. Crevier	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	20:45	0:12
C. Murphy	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	17:34	0:00
M. Grzelcyk	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	13:52	1:16

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Soderblom	31	30	1	.968	65:00	OT loss
S. Knight	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

TBL

Line 1A. Cirelli15:00B. Hagel13:57N. Kucherov16:27

Line 2Y. Gourde13:19P. Holmberg13:19Z. Girgensons13:22

Line 3J. Guentzel13:16D. James12:38G. Goncalves13:39

Line 4N. Paul9:04O. Bjorkstrand8:31

Pair 1D. Raddysh19:31J. Moser18:20

Pair 2C. D'Astous19:24E. Cernak16:14

Pair 3M. Crozier12:25D. Carlile10:33

CHI

Line 1A. Burakovsky14:47R. Greene12:53C. Bedard15:19

Line 2J. Dickinson13:06L. Slaggert9:23I. Mikheyev14:11

Line 3N. Lardis10:11O. Moore10:14R. Donato11:03

Line 4F. Nazar13:33T. Bertuzzi13:48

Pair 1A. Vlasic17:38L. Crevier18:58

Pair 2W. Kaiser18:05A. Levshunov15:59

Pair 3C. Murphy13:13M. Grzelcyk12:31

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamIlya Mikheyev TBL First game back in Chicago, his team until Apr 20262 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	TBL 3.7, CHI 2.5	TBL 2, CHI 1
Total goals	6.2	3
Shots on goal	TBL 28.0, CHI 23.4	TBL 31, CHI 19
Win chance	TBL 69%	TBL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
TBL N. Kucherov	2.9	1	1.55	1	36%	1
TBL B. Hagel	2.9	2	1.07	1	35%	0
TBL J. Guentzel	2.6	3	1.03	0	37%	0
CHI C. Bedard	2.6	0	0.79	0	26%	0
TBL D. Raddysh	2.4	5	0.88	0	17%	0
CHI T. Bertuzzi	2.0	2	0.58	0	26%	0
TBL A. Cirelli	1.7	2	0.58	1	21%	0
CHI I. Mikheyev	1.7	2	0.39	0	20%	0
TBL O. Bjorkstrand	1.7	2	0.58	0	21%	0
CHI A. Burakovsky	1.6	4	0.57	0	19%	0
CHI F. Nazar	1.6	3	0.42	0	16%	0
TBL N. Paul	1.5	0	0.41	0	20%	0
CHI R. Donato	1.5	0	0.41	0	19%	0
CHI L. Crevier	1.5	1	0.21	0	7%	0
CHI R. Greene	1.5	1	0.37	1	15%	1
TBL Y. Gourde	1.4	2	0.48	0	16%	0
CHI A. Levshunov	1.4	0	0.37	0	5%	0
TBL P. Holmberg	1.4	2	0.37	0	15%	0
TBL M. Crozier	1.4	3	0.29	0	4%	0
TBL C. D'Astous	1.4	0	0.44	0	8%	0
CHI N. Lardis	1.3	1	0.23	1	14%	0
TBL J. Moser	1.3	2	0.36	0	9%	0
TBL Z. Girgensons	1.3	2	0.23	0	12%	0
CHI J. Dickinson	1.2	1	0.27	0	14%	0
CHI O. Moore	1.2	0	0.32	1	11%	0
CHI W. Kaiser	1.1	2	0.19	0	6%	0
TBL D. James	1.1	2	0.35	0	13%	0
CHI C. Murphy	1.0	0	0.17	0	5%	0
TBL G. Goncalves	1.0	2	0.41	0	14%	0
CHI A. Vlasic	1.0	2	0.20	0	3%	0
CHI L. Slaggert	1.0	0	0.19	0	8%	0
CHI M. Grzelcyk	1.0	0	0.23	0	2%	0
CHI N. Foligno	0.9	0	0.29	0	11%	0
TBL E. Cernak	0.9	1	0.24	0	4%	0
TBL D. Carlile	0.8	0	0.16	0	6%	0
TBL J. Finley	0.7	0	0.21	0	11%	0

Shots on goal: 24 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.