Game Recap: TBL 5, COL 2, October 30, 2024

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Game Recap

TBL5

FinalWed, Oct 30, 2024Every game that night

COL2

TBL beat COL 5-2, with the chances close: 3.09 expected goals to 2.82. COL outshot TBL 35 to 21. N. Kucherov led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). I. Ivan had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.2. A. Vasilevskiy stopped 33 of 35.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
TBL	3	1	1	5
COL	1	0	1	2

1st 1:01TBLN. Kucherov0.07 xG
1st 3:36TBLJ. Guentzel0.13 xG
1st 5:32TBLC. Geekie0.23 xG
1st 14:56COLI. IvanPP0.05 xG
2nd 6:28TBLJ. Guentzel0.28 xG
3rd 10:57COLC. Makar0.02 xG
3rd 18:40TBLA. CirelliEN0.93 xG

Team Stats

TBLCOL

21Shots on goal35

3.09Expected goals2.82

44Shot attempts68

175v5 shots on goal27

0/3Power play1/4

12Hits24

17Blocked shots11

15Penalty minutes24

18Giveaways9

2Takeaways1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

TBL 3.09 xGCOL 2.82 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

TBL19 on goal, 5 scored

COL34 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

TBL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Kucherov	RW	1	2	3	2	0	1	+2	0	16:36	4:11
B. Hagel	LW	0	2	2	3	0	0	+1	0	21:25	4:47
A. Cirelli	C	1	1	2	2	0	0	+1	2	19:15	1:52
J. Guentzel	C	2	0	2	3	0	2	+3	0	18:34	4:54
B. Point	C	0	2	2	0	0	0	+3	0	18:10	4:44
C. Geekie	C	1	0	1	2	1	0	+1	0	10:54	2:00
N. Paul	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	+1	0	17:34	2:00
M. Chaffee	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	15:26	0:56
M. Eyssimont	C	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	5	11:24	0:00
C. Atkinson	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	10:53	2:00
L. Glendening	C	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	9:28	0:00
Z. Girgensons	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	7:57	0:00
V. Hedman	D	0	1	1	2	2	3	+2	0	25:22	4:00
R. McDonagh	D	0	1	1	1	0	2	+2	0	19:28	0:00
J. Moser	D	0	0	0	2	1	3	+3	0	24:52	1:37
D. Raddysh	D	0	0	0	0	1	3	+1	0	18:45	1:14
E. Lilleberg	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	4	13:05	0:00
E. Cernak	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	+1	2	12:06	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Vasilevskiy	35	33	2	.943	60:00	Win
J. Johansson	0	0	0	–	0:00

COL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. MacKinnon	C	0	2	2	2	1	2	0	0	24:58	6:01
M. Rantanen	RW	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	2	24:37	6:34
I. Ivan	C	1	0	1	6	0	0	-2	0	18:11	5:59
C. Mittelstadt	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	0	21:39	6:11
L. O'Connor	RW	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	17:34	0:37
J. Kiviranta	LW	0	0	0	3	3	2	+1	0	15:22	0:00
P. Kelly	C	0	0	0	2	4	1	-3	0	15:00	0:00
N. Kovalenko	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-2	0	12:06	0:26
C. Wagner	RW	0	0	0	2	5	1	-2	5	11:39	0:00
T. Tynan	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	8:36	0:03
M. Stienburg	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	17	4:06	0:00
C. Makar	D	1	1	2	6	3	0	0	0	25:30	6:09
D. Toews	D	0	0	0	3	1	0	-2	0	23:36	0:29
S. Girard	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	19:58	0:36
J. Manson	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	-2	0	15:44	0:00
C. de Haan	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	-2	0	14:50	0:00
S. Malinski	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-2	0	13:47	0:00
O. Kylington	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-2	0	5:31	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
K. Kahkonen	20	16	4	.800	58:16	Loss
A. Georgiev	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

BirthdayCale Makar COL Turns 26 that day1 G, 1 A, 6 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	TBL 3.3, COL 3.8	TBL 5, COL 2
Total goals	7.1	7
Shots on goal	TBL 27.4, COL 32.6	TBL 21, COL 35
Win chance	COL 57%	TBL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
COL N. MacKinnon	4.6	2	1.63	2	43%	0
COL M. Rantanen	3.3	2	1.35	1	41%	0
TBL N. Kucherov	3.0	2	1.46	3	34%	1
TBL J. Guentzel	2.9	3	0.94	2	33%	2
COL C. Makar	2.7	6	1.13	2	24%	1
TBL B. Point	2.5	0	1.03	2	39%	0
COL C. Mittelstadt	2.1	3	0.90	0	24%	0
TBL V. Hedman	2.1	2	0.81	1	12%	0
TBL B. Hagel	2.1	3	0.84	2	28%	0
COL D. Toews	1.8	3	0.60	0	12%	0
TBL M. Eyssimont	1.7	1	0.27	0	11%	0
COL J. Manson	1.6	1	0.37	0	10%	0
TBL N. Paul	1.6	1	0.47	0	19%	0
COL L. O'Connor	1.6	0	0.42	0	16%	0
TBL A. Cirelli	1.5	2	0.56	2	19%	1
COL O. Kylington	1.5	0	0.33	0	10%	0
TBL C. Atkinson	1.3	0	0.27	0	12%	0
COL P. Kelly	1.3	2	0.25	0	11%	0
COL N. Kovalenko	1.3	0	0.40	0	14%	0
COL S. Malinski	1.3	1	0.36	0	7%	0
COL I. Ivan	1.2	6	0.32	1	12%	1
COL S. Girard	1.1	0	0.39	0	6%	0
COL C. Haan	1.1	2	0.19	0	5%	0
TBL Z. Girgensons	1.1	0	0.20	0	11%	0
COL J. Kiviranta	1.1	3	0.25	0	11%	0
TBL D. Raddysh	1.1	0	0.32	0	5%	0
TBL C. Geekie	1.0	2	0.29	1	13%	1
TBL R. McDonagh	1.0	1	0.34	1	4%	0
TBL J. Moser	1.0	2	0.36	0	7%	0
COL C. Wagner	0.9	2	0.11	0	7%	0
TBL M. Chaffee	0.9	0	0.29	0	14%	0
TBL E. Cernak	0.8	2	0.23	0	3%	0
TBL L. Glendening	0.8	0	0.12	0	8%	0
TBL E. Lilleberg	0.7	0	0.15	0	2%	0
COL M. Stienburg	0.5	1	0.11	0	6%	0

Shots on goal: 17 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.