Game Recap: TBL 3, COL 6, October 23, 2026

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Game Recap

TBL3

FinalFri, Oct 23, 2026Every game that night

COL6

COL beat TBL 6-3, with the chances close: 3.39 expected goals to 3.87. TBL outshot COL 34 to 24. N. MacKinnon led the way with 4 points (1 G, 3 A). J. Guentzel had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.4. M. Blackwood stopped 31 of 34.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
TBL	0	2	1	3
COL	2	2	2	6

1st 1:08COLD. Toews0.05 xG
1st 5:52COLN. KadriPP0.17 xG
2nd 0:24COLF. Svechkov0.05 xG
2nd 8:13TBLJ. GuentzelPP0.27 xG
2nd 13:57COLA. Lehkonen0.14 xG
2nd 19:17TBLJ. Guentzel0.49 xG
3rd 4:18COLN. MacKinnon0.18 xG
3rd 15:13TBLC. D'Astous0.23 xG
3rd 17:19COLM. NecasEN0.86 xG

Team Stats

TBLCOL

34Shots on goal24

3.87Expected goals3.39

75Shot attempts47

265v5 shots on goal18

1/6Power play1/3

30Hits16

12Blocked shots20

8Penalty minutes10

18Giveaways15

3Takeaways7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

TBL 3.87 xGCOL 3.39 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

TBL34 on goal, 3 scored

COL24 on goal, 6 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

TBL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Guentzel	C	2	0	2	7	3	0	0	2	22:12	8:37
B. Point	C	0	2	2	3	0	0	0	0	20:50	8:08
B. Hagel	LW	0	1	1	2	1	0	-1	2	20:33	5:39
G. Goncalves	C	0	1	1	3	1	0	+1	0	17:59	2:35
N. Kucherov	RW	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	0	20:43	7:49
A. Cirelli	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	-2	0	17:19	2:44
I. Mikheyev	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-3	0	13:52	0:00
Z. Girgensons	C	0	0	0	2	4	1	-2	0	12:55	0:00
C. Geekie	C	0	0	0	1	6	1	0	0	12:35	1:40
D. James	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	2	12:28	1:29
P. Holmberg	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-2	0	11:59	0:00
C. D'Astous	D	1	1	2	3	5	3	+2	2	21:06	8:20
M. Crozier	D	0	1	1	3	2	1	0	0	17:17	0:00
J. Carlson	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	-2	0	18:15	3:39
R. McDonagh	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	-2	0	17:27	0:11
E. Cernak	D	0	0	0	1	2	2	-2	0	16:44	0:14
J. Moser	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	-1	0	15:15	0:00
V. Hedman	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	5:56	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Vasilevskiy	23	18	5	.783	59:52	Loss
D. Hildeby	0	0	0	–	0:00

COL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. MacKinnon	C	1	3	4	4	0	1	+4	0	18:10	3:38
M. Necas	C	1	2	3	1	0	2	+4	0	16:32	2:04
A. Lehkonen	LW	1	1	2	1	1	0	+2	2	18:56	1:06
N. Kadri	C	1	0	1	1	2	1	-1	0	15:03	3:35
T. Hughes	RW	0	1	1	4	0	0	+1	0	13:10	3:37
J. Schwartz	LW	0	1	1	0	1	0	-1	0	13:07	2:39
G. Landeskog	LW	0	1	1	1	2	1	+1	0	11:51	1:05
F. Svechkov	C	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	11:48	0:00
B. Nelson	C	0	0	0	0	0	2	-1	0	18:22	1:06
L. O'Connor	RW	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	2	14:47	0:00
P. Kelly	C	0	0	0	1	1	3	0	0	14:17	0:00
T. Makar	LW	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	2	8:11	0:00
D. Toews	D	1	1	2	2	0	0	+3	2	17:41	0:09
C. Makar	D	0	0	0	3	0	0	+2	0	21:07	4:34
B. Kulak	D	0	0	0	0	0	5	+2	0	21:06	0:00
S. Malinski	D	0	0	0	1	2	2	0	2	19:03	0:02
J. Manson	D	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	18:21	0:00
B. Burns	D	0	0	0	1	2	2	-1	0	18:15	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
M. Blackwood	34	31	3	.912	60:00	Win
S. Wedgewood	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

TBL

Line 1J. Guentzel13:27B. Point12:29G. Goncalves15:24

Line 2N. Kucherov12:41A. Cirelli12:06B. Hagel12:47

Line 3C. Geekie10:55D. James10:59

Line 4Z. Girgensons10:40I. Mikheyev11:16P. Holmberg11:59

Pair 1J. Carlson14:28J. Moser13:40

Pair 2M. Crozier16:16C. D'Astous12:40

Pair 3R. McDonagh14:13E. Cernak13:25

COL

Line 1N. MacKinnon14:24M. Necas14:20A. Lehkonen12:59

Line 2P. Kelly10:25L. O'Connor10:36T. Makar8:11

Line 3B. Nelson10:40G. Landeskog10:38N. Kadri11:28

Line 4J. Schwartz10:28T. Hughes9:33F. Svechkov10:51

Pair 1B. Kulak19:01S. Malinski18:03

Pair 2B. Burns13:45J. Manson13:35

Pair 3C. Makar11:47D. Toews13:56

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

6 of 18 overs hit (33%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	SOG	Result
COL N. MacKinnon	3.5	-130	+105	4	Over
TBL B. Hagel	2.5	-165	+140	2	Under
COL C. Makar	2.5	+106	-125	3	Over
TBL J. Guentzel	2.5	+105	-130	7	Over
COL M. Necas	2.5	+138	-175	1	Under
COL N. Kadri	2.5	+100	-115	1	Under
TBL N. Kucherov	2.5	-168	+130	2	Under
TBL A. Cirelli	1.5	+115	-140	1	Under
COL A. Lehkonen	1.5	-135	+115	1	Under
COL B. Nelson	1.5	-140	+120	0	Under
TBL B. Point	1.5	-150	+134	3	Over
COL D. Toews	1.5	+105	-130	2	Over
TBL G. Goncalves	1.5	+135	-180	3	Over
COL G. Landeskog	1.5	-180	+150	1	Under
TBL I. Mikheyev	1.5	+115	-150	1	Under
TBL J. Carlson	1.5	-128	+110	1	Under
COL J. Schwartz	1.5	-120	-110	0	Under
COL S. Malinski	1.5	-105	-125	1	Under

8 of 35 overs hit (23%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	G	Result
TBL A. Cirelli	0.5	+310	-500	0	Under
COL A. Lehkonen	0.5	+250	-360	1	Over
COL B. Burns	0.5	+1200	-3500	0	Under
TBL B. Hagel	0.5	+190	-210	0	Under
COL B. Kulak	0.5	+1900	-5000	0	Under
COL B. Nelson	0.5	+300	-370	0	Under
TBL B. Point	0.5	+235	-320	0	Under
TBL C. D'Astous	0.5	+850	-1400	1	Over
TBL C. Geekie	0.5	+750	-1200	0	Under
COL C. Makar	0.5	+360	-650	0	Under
TBL D. James	0.5	+550	–	0	Under
COL D. Toews	0.5	+850	-1400	1	Over
TBL E. Cernak	0.5	+2000	-2800	0	Under
COL F. Svechkov	0.5	+750	-1400	1	Over
TBL G. Goncalves	0.5	+460	-600	0	Under
COL G. Landeskog	0.5	+360	-390	0	Under
TBL I. Mikheyev	0.5	+575	-700	0	Under
TBL J. Carlson	0.5	+600	-1000	0	Under
TBL J. Guentzel	0.5	+190	-225	2	Over
COL J. Manson	0.5	+2200	-4000	0	Under
TBL J. Moser	0.5	+1100	-2800	0	Under
COL J. Schwartz	0.5	+400	-475	0	Under
COL L. O'Connor	0.5	+900	-1400	0	Under
TBL M. Crozier	0.5	+2500	–	0	Under
COL M. Necas	0.5	+210	-250	1	Over
COL N. Kadri	0.5	+280	-425	1	Over
TBL N. Kucherov	0.5	+195	-200	0	Under
COL N. MacKinnon	0.5	+120	-160	1	Over
TBL P. Holmberg	0.5	+550	-1200	0	Under
COL P. Kelly	0.5	+750	-1200	0	Under
TBL R. McDonagh	0.5	+1900	-2800	0	Under
COL S. Malinski	0.5	+1400	-2800	0	Under
COL T. Makar	0.5	+950	–	0	Under
TBL V. Hedman	0.5	+1000	-2800	0	Under
TBL Z. Girgensons	0.5	+800	-1400	0	Under

10 of 20 overs hit (50%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	A	Result
TBL A. Cirelli	0.5	+285	-350	0	Under
COL A. Lehkonen	0.5	+250	-350	1	Over
TBL B. Hagel	0.5	+148	-165	1	Over
COL B. Nelson	0.5	+200	-250	0	Under
TBL B. Point	0.5	+164	-190	2	Over
TBL C. D'Astous	0.5	+215	-240	1	Over
COL C. Makar	0.5	-125	+105	0	Under
COL D. Toews	0.5	+180	-200	1	Over
TBL G. Goncalves	0.5	+260	-330	1	Over
COL G. Landeskog	0.5	+255	-300	1	Over
TBL I. Mikheyev	0.5	+425	-650	0	Under
TBL J. Carlson	0.5	+190	-225	0	Under
TBL J. Guentzel	0.5	+140	-160	0	Under
COL J. Schwartz	0.5	+300	-360	1	Over
COL M. Necas	0.5	+115	-130	2	Over
COL N. Kadri	0.5	+155	-190	0	Under
TBL N. Kucherov	0.5	-155	+125	0	Under
COL N. MacKinnon	0.5	-145	+125	3	Over
TBL P. Holmberg	0.5	+500	-800	0	Under
TBL Z. Girgensons	0.5	+800	-1400	0	Under

12 of 20 overs hit (60%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	P	Result
TBL N. Kucherov	1.5	+172	-170	0	Under
COL N. MacKinnon	1.5	+130	-132	4	Over
TBL A. Cirelli	0.5	+134	-150	0	Under
COL A. Lehkonen	0.5	+105	-132	2	Over
TBL B. Hagel	0.5	-162	+150	1	Over
COL B. Nelson	0.5	+105	-120	0	Under
TBL B. Point	0.5	-130	+120	2	Over
TBL C. D'Astous	0.5	+154	-190	2	Over
COL C. Makar	0.5	-190	+150	0	Under
COL D. Toews	0.5	+135	-150	2	Over
TBL G. Goncalves	0.5	+160	-170	1	Over
COL G. Landeskog	0.5	+135	-160	1	Over
TBL I. Mikheyev	0.5	+225	-310	0	Under
TBL J. Carlson	0.5	+132	-145	0	Under
TBL J. Guentzel	0.5	-155	+130	2	Over
COL J. Schwartz	0.5	+158	-160	1	Over
COL M. Necas	0.5	-175	+150	3	Over
COL N. Kadri	0.5	-120	+110	1	Over
TBL P. Holmberg	0.5	+255	-360	0	Under
TBL Z. Girgensons	0.5	+370	-550	0	Under

5 of 16 overs hit (31%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	PPP	Result
COL A. Lehkonen	0.5	+475	-1400	0	Under
TBL B. Hagel	0.5	+220	-325	0	Under
COL B. Nelson	0.5	+320	-700	0	Under
TBL B. Point	0.5	+300	-350	1	Over
TBL C. D'Astous	0.5	+250	-425	1	Over
COL C. Makar	0.5	+170	-180	0	Under
COL D. Toews	0.5	+475	-1400	0	Under
TBL G. Goncalves	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
COL G. Landeskog	0.5	+380	-700	0	Under
TBL J. Carlson	0.5	+360	-800	0	Under
TBL J. Guentzel	0.5	+195	-275	1	Over
COL J. Schwartz	0.5	+320	-700	0	Under
COL M. Necas	0.5	+250	-375	0	Under
COL N. Kadri	0.5	+250	-400	1	Over
TBL N. Kucherov	0.5	+135	-185	0	Under
COL N. MacKinnon	0.5	+160	-180	1	Over

Player	Line	Over	Under	SV	Result
TBL A. Vasilevskiy	27.5	-108	-115	18	Under
COL M. Blackwood	23.5	-105	-115	31	Over

Player	Line	Over	Under	BLK	Result
COL C. Makar	1.5	-145	+105	0	Under
TBL J. Carlson	1.5	-145	+105	0	Under

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	TBL 3.0, COL 3.1	TBL 3, COL 6
Total goals	6.1	9
Shots on goal	TBL 26.1, COL 29.5	TBL 34, COL 24
Win chance	COL 52%	COL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
COL N. MacKinnon	3.8	4	1.33	4	40%	1
TBL B. Hagel	3.0	2	0.96	1	34%	0
TBL N. Kucherov	3.0	2	1.33	0	34%	0
COL N. Kadri	2.6	1	0.72	1	27%	1
COL C. Makar	2.4	3	0.86	0	21%	0
TBL J. Guentzel	2.4	7	0.88	2	33%	2
COL M. Necas	2.3	1	0.94	3	29%	1
TBL B. Point	2.0	3	0.79	2	32%	0
COL T. Hughes	2.0	4	0.51	1	20%	0
COL G. Landeskog	2.0	1	0.61	1	25%	0
COL B. Nelson	1.9	0	0.60	0	27%	0
COL A. Lehkonen	1.8	1	0.63	2	27%	1
COL J. Schwartz	1.6	0	0.48	1	20%	0
TBL J. Carlson	1.6	1	0.52	0	9%	0
COL S. Malinski	1.6	1	0.30	0	6%	0
TBL A. Cirelli	1.6	1	0.58	0	22%	0
COL B. Burns	1.5	1	0.28	0	7%	0
TBL I. Mikheyev	1.4	1	0.40	0	19%	0
COL D. Toews	1.4	2	0.44	2	9%	1
TBL D. James	1.4	1	0.33	0	13%	0
COL J. Manson	1.3	0	0.27	0	5%	0
TBL P. Holmberg	1.3	1	0.32	0	13%	0
TBL G. Goncalves	1.2	3	0.42	1	15%	0
TBL M. Crozier	1.1	3	0.20	1	3%	0
TBL Z. Girgensons	1.1	2	0.21	0	11%	0
TBL V. Hedman	1.1	0	0.35	0	5%	0
COL F. Svechkov	1.0	1	0.31	1	11%	1
COL B. Kulak	1.0	0	0.21	0	4%	0
TBL C. Geekie	1.0	1	0.23	0	11%	0
COL L. O'Connor	1.0	3	0.23	0	10%	0
COL P. Kelly	1.0	1	0.26	0	11%	0
TBL J. Moser	0.9	2	0.25	0	5%	0
TBL E. Cernak	0.9	1	0.19	0	3%	0
TBL C. D'Astous	0.9	3	0.27	2	5%	1
TBL R. McDonagh	0.6	0	0.25	0	3%	0
COL T. Makar	0.5	0	0.05	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.