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Game Recap
TBL0
DET2
DET beat TBL 2-0, and the chances backed it up: 3.83 expected goals to 2.70. N. Kucherov had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 3.4. C. Talbot stopped 28 of 28.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| DET | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
- 2nd 9:55DETM. Kasper0.09 xG
- 3rd 19:32DETM. RasmussenEN0.92 xG
Team Stats
TBLDET
28Shots on goal32
2.70Expected goals3.83
64Shot attempts54
215v5 shots on goal25
0/2Power play0/3
17Hits12
9Blocked shots18
8Penalty minutes8
13Giveaways16
4Takeaways3
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
TBL 2.70 xGDET 3.83 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
TBL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Kucherov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 26:14 | 4:00 |
| N. Paul | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 21:29 | 1:44 |
| A. Cirelli | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 20:44 | 1:44 |
| B. Hagel | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 20:14 | 2:02 |
| B. Point | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 19:00 | 2:16 |
| J. Guentzel | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 18:12 | 1:58 |
| Z. Girgensons | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:41 | 0:00 |
| L. Glendening | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:16 | 0:00 |
| C. Geekie | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 10:05 | 0:00 |
| M. Chaffee | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:55 | 2:16 |
| M. Eyssimont | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:50 | 0:00 |
| V. Hedman | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 23:25 | 1:47 |
| R. McDonagh | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:33 | 0:00 |
| E. Cernak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 20:09 | 0:00 |
| D. Raddysh | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -2 | 0 | 17:14 | 2:13 |
| E. Lilleberg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14:32 | 0:00 |
| M. Crozier | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:18 | 0:00 |
| N. Perbix | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9:16 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Vasilevskiy | 31 | 30 | 1 | .968 | 58:00 | Loss |
| J. Johansson | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
DET Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Compher | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | +2 | 0 | 17:49 | 1:19 |
| M. Kasper | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 15:42 | 1:18 |
| M. Rasmussen | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:54 | 1:00 |
| C. Fischer | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 9:14 | 0:02 |
| D. Larkin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 22:41 | 5:02 |
| L. Raymond | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 18:49 | 3:40 |
| A. DeBrincat | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:03 | 4:54 |
| V. Tarasenko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:33 | 4:40 |
| J. Veleno | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:30 | 0:00 |
| A. Copp | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:11 | 0:48 |
| J. Berggren | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:49 | 0:57 |
| E. Soderblom | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:44 | 0:00 |
| A. Johansson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 | +2 | 0 | 20:49 | 0:18 |
| M. Seider | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 27:02 | 5:07 |
| S. Edvinsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 2 | 22:41 | 0:21 |
| B. Chiarot | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 22:26 | 0:00 |
| E. Gustafsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:22 | 0:34 |
| J. Holl | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:41 | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | TBL 3.3, DET 3.3 | TBL 0, DET 2 |
| Total goals | 6.6 | 2 |
| Shots on goal | TBL 28.2, DET 28.9 | TBL 28, DET 32 |
| Win chance | TBL 50% | DET won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL N. Kucherov | 3.4 | 7 | 1.65 | 0 | 37% | 0 |
| DET D. Larkin | 2.9 | 4 | 0.95 | 0 | 34% | 0 |
| DET A. DeBrincat | 2.7 | 2 | 0.78 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| TBL J. Guentzel | 2.6 | 1 | 0.96 | 0 | 35% | 0 |
| TBL B. Hagel | 2.5 | 2 | 0.92 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| TBL B. Point | 2.4 | 2 | 1.04 | 0 | 39% | 0 |
| TBL V. Hedman | 2.2 | 3 | 0.82 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| DET L. Raymond | 2.1 | 5 | 0.90 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| DET M. Seider | 2.0 | 1 | 0.60 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| TBL A. Cirelli | 1.9 | 3 | 0.67 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| DET V. Tarasenko | 1.9 | 3 | 0.61 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| TBL N. Paul | 1.8 | 2 | 0.52 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| TBL D. Raddysh | 1.6 | 1 | 0.47 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| TBL M. Eyssimont | 1.6 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| DET M. Kasper | 1.5 | 2 | 0.36 | 1 | 15% | 1 |
| DET B. Chiarot | 1.4 | 2 | 0.25 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| DET J. Berggren | 1.4 | 0 | 0.40 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| DET J. Compher | 1.3 | 1 | 0.49 | 1 | 18% | 0 |
| DET E. Soderblom | 1.3 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| DET A. Copp | 1.3 | 1 | 0.44 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| TBL M. Crozier | 1.2 | 2 | 0.15 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| TBL Z. Girgensons | 1.2 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| DET M. Rasmussen | 1.2 | 2 | 0.35 | 1 | 14% | 1 |
| DET E. Gustafsson | 1.0 | 0 | 0.34 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| DET S. Edvinsson | 1.0 | 0 | 0.36 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| TBL R. McDonagh | 1.0 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| DET A. Johansson | 1.0 | 2 | 0.17 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| TBL C. Geekie | 1.0 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| DET J. Veleno | 1.0 | 2 | 0.29 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| TBL N. Perbix | 1.0 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| DET C. Fischer | 0.9 | 3 | 0.22 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| TBL M. Chaffee | 0.8 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| TBL E. Lilleberg | 0.8 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| TBL E. Cernak | 0.7 | 2 | 0.18 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| TBL L. Glendening | 0.7 | 1 | 0.11 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| DET J. Holl | 0.5 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.