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Game Recap
TBL6
DET3
TBL beat DET 6-3 despite fewer good chances: 2.80 expected goals to 3.97. DET outshot TBL 37 to 18. B. Hagel led the way with 4 points (2 G, 2 A). A. Vasilevskiy stopped 34 of 37.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 4 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| DET | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
- 1st 1:28TBLB. Hagel0.09 xG
- 1st 2:56TBLE. Cernak0.01 xG
- 1st 9:47DETV. Tarasenko0.19 xG
- 1st 11:49TBLB. Point0.15 xG
- 1st 15:13TBLN. Paul0.17 xG
- 1st 16:54DETP. KanePP0.12 xG
- 2nd 14:29DETA. DeBrincat0.18 xG
- 3rd 4:10TBLD. Duke0.26 xG
- 3rd 17:57TBLB. HagelEN0.61 xG
Team Stats
TBLDET
18Shots on goal37
2.80Expected goals3.97
41Shot attempts74
175v5 shots on goal29
0/0Power play1/2
28Hits32
19Blocked shots10
4Penalty minutes10
16Giveaways14
3Takeaways9
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
TBL 2.80 xGDET 3.97 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
TBL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Hagel | LW | 2 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 2 | +4 | 0 | 19:21 | 0:00 |
| N. Kucherov | RW | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 4 | 22:15 | 0:00 |
| B. Point | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 17:12 | 0:00 |
| N. Paul | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:11 | 0:00 |
| G. Goncalves | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:37 | 0:00 |
| M. Chaffee | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 7:47 | 0:00 |
| D. Duke | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 7:38 | 0:00 |
| J. Guentzel | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:18 | 0:00 |
| A. Cirelli | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 18:10 | 0:00 |
| Z. Girgensons | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:56 | 0:00 |
| M. Eyssimont | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:10 | 0:00 |
| L. Glendening | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 10:02 | 0:00 |
| E. Cernak | D | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | +2 | 0 | 22:01 | 0:00 |
| R. McDonagh | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +4 | 0 | 22:54 | 0:00 |
| N. Perbix | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 19:47 | 0:00 |
| V. Hedman | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 23:37 | 0:00 |
| D. Raddysh | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 17:48 | 0:00 |
| E. Lilleberg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 14:08 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Vasilevskiy | 37 | 34 | 3 | .919 | 60:00 | Win |
| B. Halverson | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
DET Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. DeBrincat | RW | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:22 | 1:36 |
| L. Raymond | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 20:05 | 1:36 |
| P. Kane | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:26 | 1:36 |
| V. Tarasenko | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:10 | 0:32 |
| D. Larkin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 20:06 | 1:36 |
| M. Kasper | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 17:02 | 0:00 |
| M. Rasmussen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 14:42 | 0:32 |
| E. Soderblom | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:37 | 0:00 |
| J. Compher | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 13:29 | 0:00 |
| A. Copp | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:20 | 0:32 |
| J. Berggren | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 12:53 | 0:32 |
| J. Veleno | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 11:16 | 0:00 |
| M. Seider | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 24:29 | 1:36 |
| S. Edvinsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 10 | 22:11 | 0:00 |
| A. Johansson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 20:08 | 0:00 |
| B. Chiarot | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:42 | 0:00 |
| E. Gustafsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 17:02 | 0:32 |
| J. Holl | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 13:16 | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | TBL 3.3, DET 2.9 | TBL 6, DET 3 |
| Total goals | 6.2 | 9 |
| Shots on goal | TBL 29.4, DET 28.6 | TBL 18, DET 37 |
| Win chance | TBL 54% | TBL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL N. Kucherov | 3.5 | 1 | 1.60 | 3 | 37% | 0 |
| DET D. Larkin | 3.4 | 5 | 0.96 | 0 | 35% | 0 |
| TBL J. Guentzel | 2.9 | 1 | 0.99 | 0 | 37% | 0 |
| DET A. DeBrincat | 2.9 | 4 | 0.77 | 3 | 30% | 1 |
| TBL B. Point | 2.7 | 4 | 1.07 | 1 | 41% | 1 |
| TBL B. Hagel | 2.7 | 3 | 0.93 | 4 | 32% | 2 |
| DET P. Kane | 2.5 | 5 | 0.78 | 1 | 25% | 1 |
| DET L. Raymond | 2.4 | 4 | 0.92 | 1 | 29% | 0 |
| TBL V. Hedman | 2.4 | 0 | 0.81 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| DET M. Seider | 2.1 | 3 | 0.58 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| TBL A. Cirelli | 2.1 | 1 | 0.67 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| DET V. Tarasenko | 2.0 | 4 | 0.58 | 1 | 23% | 1 |
| DET M. Kasper | 1.9 | 4 | 0.48 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| TBL D. Raddysh | 1.8 | 2 | 0.48 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| TBL N. Paul | 1.8 | 1 | 0.46 | 1 | 21% | 1 |
| DET B. Chiarot | 1.6 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| DET E. Soderblom | 1.5 | 1 | 0.44 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| TBL M. Eyssimont | 1.5 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| DET A. Copp | 1.4 | 1 | 0.46 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| DET J. Compher | 1.4 | 0 | 0.48 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| DET M. Rasmussen | 1.3 | 3 | 0.36 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| DET J. Berggren | 1.3 | 0 | 0.37 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| TBL Z. Girgensons | 1.3 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| TBL R. McDonagh | 1.1 | 1 | 0.33 | 2 | 4% | 0 |
| DET E. Gustafsson | 1.0 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| DET A. Johansson | 1.0 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| DET S. Edvinsson | 1.0 | 1 | 0.35 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| TBL G. Goncalves | 1.0 | 0 | 0.20 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| DET J. Veleno | 0.9 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| TBL E. Cernak | 0.9 | 1 | 0.22 | 3 | 3% | 1 |
| TBL N. Perbix | 0.9 | 1 | 0.25 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| TBL M. Chaffee | 0.8 | 0 | 0.22 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| TBL E. Lilleberg | 0.8 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| TBL L. Glendening | 0.8 | 0 | 0.12 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| DET J. Holl | 0.5 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 19 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.