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Game Recap
TBL1
DET2
DET beat TBL 2-1 in overtime, with the chances close: 2.92 expected goals to 2.89. D. Larkin led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). J. Gibson stopped 31 of 32.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| DET | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
- 1st 13:02DETA. Sandin-Pellikka0.02 xG
- 3rd 16:17TBLJ. Moser0.03 xG
- OT 3:36DETD. Larkin0.29 xG
Team Stats
TBLDET
32Shots on goal31
2.89Expected goals2.92
74Shot attempts61
305v5 shots on goal25
0/3Power play0/3
20Hits27
13Blocked shots22
6Penalty minutes6
15Giveaways16
4Takeaways4
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
TBL 2.89 xGDET 2.92 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
TBL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Geekie | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 2 | 12:39 | 2:05 |
| J. Guentzel | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 24:56 | 4:14 |
| B. Hagel | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 24:11 | 3:42 |
| B. Point | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 21:26 | 3:23 |
| A. Cirelli | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 19:37 | 3:43 |
| Y. Gourde | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15:49 | 0:03 |
| G. Goncalves | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 15:06 | 1:38 |
| O. Bjorkstrand | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:51 | 2:08 |
| P. Holmberg | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:19 | 0:05 |
| M. Chaffee | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:18 | 2:31 |
| J. Finley | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:51 | 0:00 |
| C. Douglas | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6:27 | 0:00 |
| V. Hedman | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 26:12 | 3:02 |
| J. Moser | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 21:21 | 0:00 |
| R. McDonagh | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 22:16 | 0:26 |
| E. Cernak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 20:44 | 0:12 |
| D. Raddysh | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:56 | 2:48 |
| E. Lilleberg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 11:49 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Vasilevskiy | 31 | 29 | 2 | .935 | 63:36 | OT loss |
| J. Johansson | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
DET Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Larkin | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 23:12 | 3:56 |
| J. Compher | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:44 | 2:09 |
| M. Appleton | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:55 | 0:00 |
| E. Finnie | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 18:35 | 0:00 |
| A. DeBrincat | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:54 | 3:59 |
| P. Kane | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:42 | 3:58 |
| M. Kasper | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:07 | 2:01 |
| A. Copp | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:05 | 1:58 |
| M. Brandsegg-Nygård | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 13:36 | 1:48 |
| M. Rasmussen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 11:28 | 0:00 |
| J. van Riemsdyk | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:34 | 3:52 |
| E. Soderblom | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:40 | 0:00 |
| A. Sandin-Pellikka | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 17:27 | 2:07 |
| M. Seider | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 27:19 | 3:52 |
| S. Edvinsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 23:42 | 0:02 |
| B. Chiarot | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 22:15 | 0:00 |
| A. Johansson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 17:26 | 0:18 |
| J. Bernard-Docker | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 10:07 | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
TBL
Line 1J. Guentzel16:41B. Point16:28G. Goncalves13:28
Line 2Y. Gourde13:08P. Holmberg12:10O. Bjorkstrand12:13
Line 3A. Cirelli11:47C. Geekie10:34B. Hagel15:12
Line 4M. Chaffee7:47J. Finley7:51C. Douglas6:27
Pair 2R. McDonagh17:10E. Cernak17:21
Pair 3D. Raddysh13:08E. Lilleberg11:49
DET
Line 1E. Finnie15:06M. Appleton14:37D. Larkin14:54
Line 2P. Kane13:23A. DeBrincat12:34M. Kasper12:00
Line 3J. Compher12:52M. Brandsegg-Nygård11:48A. Copp11:40
Line 4M. Rasmussen9:24E. Soderblom8:40J. Riemsdyk6:42
Pair 1B. Chiarot20:24M. Seider20:04
Pair 2S. Edvinsson18:27A. Sandin-Pellikka12:14
Pair 3J. Bernard-Docker10:07A. Johansson15:04
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | TBL 3.2, DET 3.2 | TBL 1, DET 2 |
| Total goals | 6.4 | 3 |
| Shots on goal | TBL 25.1, DET 28.2 | TBL 32, DET 31 |
| Win chance | TBL 51% | DET won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET A. DeBrincat | 3.0 | 0 | 0.81 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| TBL J. Guentzel | 2.8 | 5 | 1.04 | 0 | 38% | 0 |
| DET D. Larkin | 2.7 | 4 | 0.85 | 2 | 31% | 1 |
| DET P. Kane | 2.4 | 2 | 0.77 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| TBL B. Point | 2.4 | 3 | 1.01 | 0 | 40% | 0 |
| TBL B. Hagel | 2.2 | 3 | 0.82 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| TBL V. Hedman | 2.1 | 1 | 0.82 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| DET M. Kasper | 2.0 | 1 | 0.50 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| DET M. Seider | 1.9 | 3 | 0.50 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| TBL A. Cirelli | 1.8 | 1 | 0.64 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| TBL O. Bjorkstrand | 1.8 | 3 | 0.59 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| TBL Y. Gourde | 1.4 | 0 | 0.48 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| DET J. Riemsdyk | 1.4 | 3 | 0.47 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| DET B. Chiarot | 1.4 | 3 | 0.20 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| DET M. Appleton | 1.4 | 0 | 0.32 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| DET E. Soderblom | 1.3 | 1 | 0.37 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| DET J. Compher | 1.3 | 1 | 0.44 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| DET A. Copp | 1.3 | 1 | 0.42 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| TBL D. Raddysh | 1.2 | 2 | 0.40 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| DET S. Edvinsson | 1.2 | 0 | 0.34 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| DET M. Rasmussen | 1.1 | 2 | 0.29 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| TBL G. Goncalves | 1.1 | 1 | 0.47 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| TBL R. McDonagh | 1.0 | 1 | 0.38 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| TBL E. Cernak | 1.0 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| TBL P. Holmberg | 1.0 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| TBL J. Moser | 0.9 | 2 | 0.26 | 1 | 5% | 1 |
| TBL C. Geekie | 0.9 | 1 | 0.21 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| DET A. Johansson | 0.8 | 1 | 0.14 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| TBL M. Chaffee | 0.8 | 3 | 0.21 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| DET J. Bernard-Docker | 0.8 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| TBL E. Lilleberg | 0.6 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 18 of 31 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.