Game Recap: TBL 6, DET 3, November 28, 2025

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Game Recap

TBL6

FinalFri, Nov 28, 2025Every game that night

DET3

TBL beat DET 6-3, and the chances backed it up: 4.85 expected goals to 3.75. DET outshot TBL 37 to 27. D. Raddysh led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). B. Chiarot had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.3. A. Vasilevskiy stopped 34 of 37.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
TBL	1	3	2	6
DET	1	2	0	3

1st 11:29DETJ. Compher0.08 xG
1st 17:07TBLD. RaddyshPP0.10 xG
2nd 0:34TBLG. Goncalves0.20 xG
2nd 3:01TBLY. Gourde0.33 xG
2nd 3:13DETM. Rasmussen0.13 xG
2nd 16:09TBLY. Gourde0.11 xG
2nd 18:26DETD. Larkin0.07 xG
3rd 12:37TBLJ. Guentzel0.11 xG
3rd 17:13TBLB. HagelEN0.90 xG

Team Stats

TBLDET

27Shots on goal37

4.85Expected goals3.75

56Shot attempts51

215v5 shots on goal32

1/1Power play0/1

15Hits20

4Blocked shots16

4Penalty minutes4

11Giveaways11

4Takeaways7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

TBL 4.85 xGDET 3.75 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

TBL27 on goal, 6 scored

DET36 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

TBL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Kucherov	RW	0	2	2	4	0	0	+2	0	19:40	0:36
J. Guentzel	C	1	1	2	1	0	0	-1	0	18:05	0:36
Y. Gourde	C	2	0	2	4	1	0	+2	2	16:21	0:00
B. Hagel	LW	1	0	1	5	2	0	+1	2	15:19	0:00
O. Bjorkstrand	RW	0	1	1	0	2	1	0	0	15:09	0:36
N. Paul	LW	0	1	1	1	0	0	-1	0	14:00	0:36
G. Goncalves	C	1	0	1	1	0	0	-2	0	11:29	0:00
Z. Girgensons	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	+2	0	15:54	0:00
A. Cirelli	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	15:54	0:00
P. Holmberg	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	+2	0	15:16	0:00
D. James	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	13:56	0:00
C. Douglas	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	5:25	0:00
D. Raddysh	D	1	2	3	3	1	1	+2	0	24:04	0:36
J. Moser	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	+2	0	23:59	0:00
E. Lilleberg	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	0	23:30	0:00
C. D'Astous	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	22:56	0:00
S. Santini	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	13:04	0:00
D. Carlile	D	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	11:59	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Vasilevskiy	37	34	3	.919	60:00	Win
J. Johansson	0	0	0	–	0:00

DET Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Compher	LW	1	1	2	3	0	0	0	0	14:01	0:00
M. Rasmussen	C	1	1	2	3	3	0	+1	0	13:01	0:00
D. Larkin	C	1	0	1	3	1	3	0	0	19:18	2:00
L. Raymond	LW	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	18:37	2:00
A. DeBrincat	RW	0	0	0	3	0	1	-3	2	18:59	2:00
E. Finnie	C	0	0	0	1	2	1	+1	0	16:55	0:00
P. Kane	RW	0	0	0	4	0	0	-3	0	16:12	1:54
M. Appleton	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	14:58	0:00
M. Kasper	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	13:07	0:00
J. van Riemsdyk	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	2	12:38	0:00
A. Copp	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	-1	0	12:10	0:00
N. Danielson	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-2	0	10:40	0:00
S. Edvinsson	D	0	1	1	1	1	0	+1	0	19:49	0:00
B. Chiarot	D	0	0	0	5	4	7	0	0	23:43	0:06
M. Seider	D	0	0	0	3	2	1	0	0	22:57	2:00
A. Sandin-Pellikka	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	0	22:10	0:00
A. Johansson	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	-2	0	14:45	0:00
J. Bernard-Docker	D	0	0	0	3	2	1	-2	0	14:02	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Gibson	26	21	5	.808	59:22	Loss
C. Talbot	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

TBL

Line 1Y. Gourde15:34Z. Girgensons15:12P. Holmberg15:16

Line 2N. Kucherov17:52A. Cirelli12:37B. Hagel13:15

Line 3N. Paul13:24G. Goncalves11:29J. Guentzel15:37

Line 4O. Bjorkstrand14:33D. James13:56C. Douglas5:25

Pair 1C. D'Astous21:08E. Lilleberg21:41

Pair 2D. Raddysh20:39J. Moser21:09

Pair 3S. Santini13:04D. Carlile11:59

DET

Line 1E. Finnie16:25D. Larkin15:48L. Raymond15:15

Line 2J. Compher13:15M. Appleton14:05M. Rasmussen12:25

Line 3A. DeBrincat16:00M. Kasper13:07J. Riemsdyk12:00

Line 4P. Kane13:10A. Copp12:10N. Danielson10:40

Pair 1B. Chiarot22:28A. Sandin-Pellikka21:01

Pair 2M. Seider19:58S. Edvinsson19:28

Pair 3A. Johansson13:39J. Bernard-Docker12:56

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	TBL 3.2, DET 3.1	TBL 6, DET 3
Total goals	6.3	9
Shots on goal	TBL 25.1, DET 29.4	TBL 27, DET 37
Win chance	TBL 51%	TBL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
DET A. DeBrincat	3.3	3	0.84	0	32%	0
DET D. Larkin	3.1	3	0.95	1	35%	1
TBL J. Guentzel	2.7	1	1.06	2	39%	1
TBL N. Kucherov	2.7	4	1.39	2	34%	0
DET P. Kane	2.6	4	0.77	0	24%	0
DET L. Raymond	2.4	1	0.89	1	27%	0
TBL B. Hagel	2.4	5	0.92	1	30%	1
DET M. Seider	2.1	3	0.49	0	9%	0
TBL N. Paul	1.9	1	0.56	1	25%	0
TBL D. Raddysh	1.8	3	0.61	3	10%	1
TBL O. Bjorkstrand	1.7	0	0.58	1	21%	0
DET E. Finnie	1.6	1	0.38	0	16%	0
TBL A. Cirelli	1.6	1	0.64	0	23%	0
DET M. Kasper	1.5	2	0.30	0	16%	0
TBL Y. Gourde	1.4	4	0.47	2	15%	2
DET B. Chiarot	1.3	5	0.21	0	7%	0
DET J. Riemsdyk	1.2	1	0.37	0	15%	0
DET S. Edvinsson	1.2	1	0.32	1	10%	0
DET J. Compher	1.2	3	0.35	2	15%	1
TBL D. James	1.1	1	0.34	0	13%	0
DET M. Appleton	1.1	0	0.28	0	10%	0
TBL Z. Girgensons	1.1	1	0.23	0	13%	0
DET A. Sandin-Pellikka	1.1	2	0.26	0	8%	0
DET N. Danielson	1.1	0	0.27	0	9%	0
DET M. Rasmussen	1.1	3	0.27	2	12%	1
DET A. Copp	1.0	1	0.32	0	12%	0
TBL J. Moser	1.0	2	0.32	0	6%	0
TBL C. D'Astous	0.9	0	0.42	0	8%	0
TBL P. Holmberg	0.9	1	0.28	0	10%	0
TBL G. Goncalves	0.9	1	0.35	1	12%	1
DET A. Johansson	0.9	1	0.13	0	4%	0
TBL S. Santini	0.8	0	0.20	0	3%	0
DET J. Bernard-Docker	0.8	3	0.14	0	4%	0
TBL E. Lilleberg	0.8	1	0.28	0	4%	0
TBL D. Carlile	0.6	1	0.21	0	7%	0
TBL C. Douglas	0.5	0	0.14	0	5%	0

Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.