Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!
Game Recap
TBL1
EDM2
EDM beat TBL 2-1, and the chances backed it up: 2.98 expected goals to 1.90. L. Draisaitl led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). S. Skinner stopped 21 of 22.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| EDM | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
- 1st 17:31EDMC. McDavid0.25 xG
- 2nd 10:02TBLJ. Guentzel0.12 xG
- 2nd 11:58EDML. Draisaitl0.44 xG
Team Stats
TBLEDM
22Shots on goal25
1.90Expected goals2.98
48Shot attempts44
175v5 shots on goal23
0/2Power play0/2
14Hits9
10Blocked shots14
4Penalty minutes4
13Giveaways14
4Takeaways2
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
TBL 1.90 xGEDM 2.98 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
TBL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Kucherov | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22:05 | 2:58 |
| B. Point | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 20:07 | 2:56 |
| J. Guentzel | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 19:48 | 3:00 |
| B. Hagel | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 20:56 | 2:58 |
| N. Paul | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:27 | 2:07 |
| G. Goncalves | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:41 | 0:44 |
| M. Chaffee | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13:08 | 0:00 |
| C. Geekie | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:02 | 0:46 |
| L. Glendening | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:32 | 0:00 |
| C. Atkinson | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9:48 | 0:42 |
| M. Eyssimont | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 9:42 | 0:00 |
| Z. Girgensons | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 9:18 | 0:00 |
| V. Hedman | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 22:35 | 2:49 |
| J. Moser | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 21:09 | 0:00 |
| R. McDonagh | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:23 | 0:02 |
| E. Lilleberg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 18:08 | 0:00 |
| D. Raddysh | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:58 | 0:53 |
| N. Perbix | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 15:27 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Vasilevskiy | 25 | 24 | 2 | .960 | 57:46 | Loss |
| J. Johansson | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
EDM Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Draisaitl | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 21:13 | 2:49 |
| C. McDavid | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 22:03 | 2:48 |
| R. Nugent-Hopkins | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 19:05 | 2:47 |
| Z. Hyman | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:20 | 2:49 |
| A. Henrique | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:58 | 1:14 |
| M. Janmark | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:39 | 0:00 |
| C. Brown | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:18 | 0:00 |
| V. Podkolzin | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:16 | 0:00 |
| K. Kapanen | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:24 | 0:00 |
| J. Skinner | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 11:55 | 1:09 |
| C. Perry | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:03 | 1:13 |
| D. Ryan | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 6:39 | 0:00 |
| B. Kulak | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 21:29 | 0:00 |
| E. Bouchard | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 23:16 | 2:42 |
| M. Ekholm | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 23:15 | 1:13 |
| D. Nurse | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 4 | +1 | 0 | 23:15 | 1:16 |
| T. Emberson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:52 | 0:00 |
| T. Stecher | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:18 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Skinner | 22 | 21 | 1 | .955 | 60:00 | Win |
| C. Pickard | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | TBL 3.1, EDM 3.5 | TBL 1, EDM 2 |
| Total goals | 6.6 | 3 |
| Shots on goal | TBL 26.0, EDM 31.9 | TBL 22, EDM 25 |
| Win chance | EDM 57% | EDM won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM C. McDavid | 3.3 | 4 | 1.71 | 1 | 40% | 1 |
| TBL N. Kucherov | 3.0 | 3 | 1.38 | 1 | 33% | 0 |
| EDM Z. Hyman | 3.0 | 3 | 0.83 | 0 | 37% | 0 |
| TBL J. Guentzel | 2.9 | 2 | 0.96 | 1 | 35% | 1 |
| EDM L. Draisaitl | 2.7 | 3 | 1.38 | 2 | 43% | 1 |
| TBL B. Hagel | 2.5 | 1 | 0.95 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| EDM E. Bouchard | 2.4 | 2 | 0.89 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| TBL B. Point | 2.4 | 0 | 1.01 | 1 | 39% | 0 |
| EDM J. Skinner | 2.2 | 0 | 0.57 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| EDM D. Nurse | 2.2 | 3 | 0.42 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| EDM M. Ekholm | 2.0 | 1 | 0.48 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins | 2.0 | 2 | 0.84 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| TBL V. Hedman | 1.8 | 2 | 0.72 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| TBL M. Eyssimont | 1.8 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| TBL N. Paul | 1.7 | 4 | 0.48 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| EDM A. Henrique | 1.5 | 1 | 0.53 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| EDM B. Kulak | 1.5 | 1 | 0.32 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| EDM C. Brown | 1.4 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| EDM V. Podkolzin | 1.4 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| TBL C. Atkinson | 1.4 | 2 | 0.29 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| EDM K. Kapanen | 1.2 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| TBL C. Geekie | 1.1 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| EDM C. Perry | 1.1 | 1 | 0.34 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| TBL Z. Girgensons | 1.1 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| TBL M. Chaffee | 1.0 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| EDM T. Emberson | 1.0 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| EDM T. Stecher | 0.9 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| TBL D. Raddysh | 0.9 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| EDM M. Janmark | 0.9 | 0 | 0.35 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| TBL R. McDonagh | 0.8 | 3 | 0.28 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| TBL G. Goncalves | 0.8 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| TBL J. Moser | 0.8 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| TBL N. Perbix | 0.7 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| TBL L. Glendening | 0.7 | 1 | 0.12 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| EDM D. Ryan | 0.7 | 1 | 0.16 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| TBL E. Lilleberg | 0.6 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 28 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.