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Game Recap
TBL5
EDM2
TBL beat EDM 5-2, with the chances close: 2.92 expected goals to 2.52. N. Kucherov led the way with 4 points (2 G, 2 A). N. Kucherov had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.7. A. Vasilevskiy stopped 26 of 27.
Team Stats
TBLEDM
28Shots on goal27
2.92Expected goals2.52
60Shot attempts51
215v5 shots on goal23
1/3Power play0/3
11Hits28
13Blocked shots17
18Penalty minutes18
19Giveaways17
5Takeaways2
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
TBL 2.92 xGEDM 2.52 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
TBL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Kucherov | RW | 2 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 2 | 19:53 | 4:34 |
| B. Hagel | LW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 0 | 20:47 | 2:50 |
| A. Cirelli | C | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 5 | 10:28 | 0:00 |
| J. Guentzel | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:22 | 3:49 |
| B. Point | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 17:54 | 2:57 |
| Y. Gourde | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15:16 | 0:00 |
| G. Goncalves | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 14:13 | 0:39 |
| Z. Girgensons | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 14:09 | 0:00 |
| N. Paul | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:01 | 1:02 |
| P. Holmberg | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 11:00 | 0:00 |
| O. Bjorkstrand | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 10:10 | 1:10 |
| C. Perry | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:59 | 1:54 |
| J. Moser | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 22:42 | 0:29 |
| D. Raddysh | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 26:00 | 4:16 |
| R. McDonagh | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 22:01 | 0:00 |
| E. Cernak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 20:14 | 0:00 |
| E. Lilleberg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:02 | 0:00 |
| C. D'Astous | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 11:58 | 0:35 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Vasilevskiy | 27 | 26 | 2 | .963 | 60:00 | Win |
| J. Johansson | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
EDM Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. McDavid | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 4 | 22:42 | 2:11 |
| J. Samanski | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 10:05 | 0:32 |
| Z. Hyman | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 20:28 | 2:11 |
| R. Nugent-Hopkins | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 19:56 | 2:11 |
| K. Kapanen | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:37 | 0:36 |
| J. Dickinson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 15:44 | 0:17 |
| M. Savoie | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:27 | 2:10 |
| V. Podkolzin | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 14:08 | 0:00 |
| J. Roslovic | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 12:43 | 0:36 |
| A. Henrique | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9:29 | 0:36 |
| M. Jones | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9:27 | 0:15 |
| R. Jarventie | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8:30 | 0:32 |
| E. Bouchard | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 27:37 | 2:11 |
| M. Ekholm | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 0 | 23:49 | 0:55 |
| D. Nurse | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 20:26 | 0:32 |
| C. Murphy | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 17:23 | 0:00 |
| J. Walman | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:19 | 1:09 |
| T. Emberson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:18 | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
TBL
Line 1N. Kucherov13:55B. Hagel15:10A. Cirelli8:34
Line 2J. Guentzel14:16G. Goncalves13:25B. Point14:07
Line 3Y. Gourde13:32Z. Girgensons11:50P. Holmberg10:35
Line 4C. Perry8:05O. Bjorkstrand9:00N. Paul12:48
Pair 1D. Raddysh20:38J. Moser20:18
Pair 2R. McDonagh17:55E. Cernak16:59
Pair 3E. Lilleberg11:05C. D'Astous10:28
EDM
Line 1Z. Hyman16:08C. McDavid19:30R. Nugent-Hopkins15:33
Line 2K. Kapanen13:51V. Podkolzin13:09J. Dickinson12:03
Line 3J. Roslovic11:54M. Savoie9:54J. Samanski9:22
Line 4M. Jones9:12R. Jarventie7:58A. Henrique7:16
Pair 1M. Ekholm19:00E. Bouchard20:30
Pair 3T. Emberson12:17J. Walman12:17
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | TBL 3.4, EDM 3.2 | TBL 5, EDM 2 |
| Total goals | 6.7 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | TBL 26.6, EDM 29.7 | TBL 28, EDM 27 |
| Win chance | TBL 52% | TBL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM C. McDavid | 3.3 | 4 | 1.50 | 1 | 37% | 1 |
| EDM Z. Hyman | 2.9 | 1 | 0.82 | 0 | 38% | 0 |
| EDM E. Bouchard | 2.9 | 3 | 0.91 | 1 | 18% | 0 |
| TBL N. Kucherov | 2.7 | 7 | 1.50 | 4 | 34% | 2 |
| TBL B. Hagel | 2.5 | 2 | 0.90 | 2 | 30% | 0 |
| TBL J. Guentzel | 2.3 | 2 | 0.90 | 1 | 33% | 1 |
| TBL D. Raddysh | 2.2 | 3 | 0.76 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| TBL B. Point | 2.0 | 1 | 0.92 | 1 | 34% | 0 |
| EDM D. Nurse | 1.8 | 3 | 0.29 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| EDM J. Roslovic | 1.8 | 1 | 0.47 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins | 1.8 | 2 | 0.73 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| EDM M. Savoie | 1.7 | 1 | 0.45 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| TBL O. Bjorkstrand | 1.7 | 3 | 0.51 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| EDM J. Walman | 1.7 | 3 | 0.33 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| EDM M. Ekholm | 1.7 | 0 | 0.43 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| EDM K. Kapanen | 1.6 | 1 | 0.40 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| EDM V. Podkolzin | 1.6 | 2 | 0.41 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| TBL A. Cirelli | 1.6 | 5 | 0.64 | 2 | 21% | 2 |
| TBL C. Perry | 1.4 | 1 | 0.43 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| TBL Y. Gourde | 1.3 | 0 | 0.41 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| TBL N. Paul | 1.2 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| TBL G. Goncalves | 1.2 | 1 | 0.46 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| TBL J. Moser | 1.1 | 0 | 0.31 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| EDM J. Dickinson | 1.1 | 2 | 0.29 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| TBL Z. Girgensons | 1.1 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| EDM C. Murphy | 1.1 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| EDM A. Henrique | 1.0 | 2 | 0.23 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| TBL P. Holmberg | 1.0 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| EDM M. Jones | 1.0 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| TBL C. D'Astous | 0.9 | 0 | 0.35 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| TBL R. McDonagh | 0.9 | 0 | 0.36 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| TBL E. Cernak | 0.7 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| EDM R. Jarventie | 0.7 | 1 | 0.16 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| TBL E. Lilleberg | 0.6 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| EDM T. Emberson | 0.6 | 1 | 0.15 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| EDM J. Samanski | 0.4 | 0 | 0.20 | 1 | 8% | 1 |
Shots on goal: 24 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.