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Game Recap
TBL3
FLA1
TBL beat FLA 3-1, and the chances backed it up: 3.41 expected goals to 1.97. N. Kucherov had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.7. A. Vasilevskiy stopped 22 of 23.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| FLA | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
- 1st 12:19TBLE. Lilleberg0.06 xG
- 2nd 11:31FLAB. MarchandPP0.11 xG
- 3rd 4:09TBLJ. Finley0.16 xG
- 3rd 19:09TBLZ. GirgensonsEN0.96 xG
Team Stats
TBLFLA
20Shots on goal23
3.41Expected goals1.97
41Shot attempts62
145v5 shots on goal16
0/4Power play1/5
27Hits25
14Blocked shots7
16Penalty minutes14
18Giveaways15
2Takeaways4
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
TBL 3.41 xGFLA 1.97 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
TBL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Kucherov | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 22:31 | 6:56 |
| Y. Gourde | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | +1 | 4 | 20:21 | 1:10 |
| Z. Girgensons | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 19:36 | 0:24 |
| S. Sabourin | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 9:06 | 0:00 |
| J. Finley | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 8:25 | 0:57 |
| C. Douglas | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 7:07 | 0:00 |
| J. Guentzel | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 25:05 | 6:29 |
| B. Point | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:49 | 6:22 |
| O. Bjorkstrand | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:18 | 6:31 |
| G. Goncalves | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:56 | 1:36 |
| B. Katchouk | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:35 | 0:00 |
| J. Pelletier | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6:12 | 1:01 |
| E. Lilleberg | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 2 | 16:02 | 0:00 |
| J. Moser | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 22:24 | 0:52 |
| D. Raddysh | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:20 | 6:11 |
| C. D'Astous | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 18:13 | 1:16 |
| E. Cernak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | +1 | 4 | 18:05 | 0:15 |
| M. Crozier | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 17:50 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Vasilevskiy | 23 | 22 | 1 | .957 | 60:00 | Win |
| J. Johansson | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
FLA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Reinhart | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 23:28 | 4:15 |
| A. Lundell | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 23:05 | 4:19 |
| B. Marchand | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:52 | 4:24 |
| S. Bennett | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 4 | 18:46 | 3:48 |
| C. Verhaeghe | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 17:35 | 3:59 |
| M. Samoskevich | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:11 | 3:49 |
| E. Luostarinen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 15:26 | 3:40 |
| E. Rodrigues | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:14 | 1:47 |
| J. Boqvist | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:36 | 0:00 |
| A. Greer | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 8:04 | 0:00 |
| L. Kunin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 2 | 7:33 | 0:00 |
| C. Schwindt | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 7:26 | 0:00 |
| S. Jones | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 25:30 | 4:13 |
| G. Forsling | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 21:30 | 0:13 |
| A. Ekblad | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 20:46 | 3:44 |
| N. Mikkola | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:50 | 0:10 |
| J. Petry | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:46 | 2:04 |
| D. Sebrango | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 10:37 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Bobrovsky | 19 | 17 | 2 | .895 | 57:45 | Loss |
| D. Tarasov | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
TBL
Line 1N. Kucherov13:15B. Point12:06J. Guentzel12:19
Line 2Y. Gourde12:40Z. Girgensons13:17G. Goncalves10:43
Line 3S. Sabourin9:06C. Douglas7:07J. Finley7:28
Line 4O. Bjorkstrand8:12J. Pelletier5:11B. Katchouk7:19
Pair 1D. Raddysh12:59J. Moser14:56
Pair 2E. Lilleberg13:04M. Crozier13:14
Pair 3E. Cernak12:44C. D'Astous12:40
FLA
Line 1S. Bennett12:43M. Samoskevich12:22J. Boqvist10:36
Line 2S. Reinhart12:21C. Verhaeghe11:21E. Rodrigues9:46
Line 3B. Marchand9:30A. Lundell10:08E. Luostarinen8:28
Line 4A. Greer7:34L. Kunin7:04C. Schwindt7:00
Pair 1S. Jones15:26N. Mikkola14:21
Pair 2G. Forsling14:31A. Ekblad12:42
Pair 3J. Petry12:09D. Sebrango10:18
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | TBL 2.9, FLA 3.1 | TBL 3, FLA 1 |
| Total goals | 6.0 | 4 |
| Shots on goal | TBL 24.9, FLA 29.0 | TBL 20, FLA 23 |
| Win chance | FLA 53% | TBL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA S. Reinhart | 2.8 | 1 | 0.93 | 1 | 38% | 0 |
| TBL N. Kucherov | 2.7 | 6 | 1.28 | 1 | 32% | 0 |
| FLA B. Marchand | 2.6 | 3 | 0.88 | 1 | 31% | 1 |
| TBL J. Guentzel | 2.5 | 1 | 0.91 | 0 | 35% | 0 |
| FLA C. Verhaeghe | 2.5 | 3 | 0.72 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| FLA S. Bennett | 2.4 | 2 | 0.57 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| FLA A. Lundell | 2.3 | 2 | 0.76 | 1 | 23% | 0 |
| FLA E. Rodrigues | 2.1 | 0 | 0.50 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| TBL B. Point | 2.1 | 1 | 0.85 | 0 | 35% | 0 |
| FLA M. Samoskevich | 1.9 | 0 | 0.44 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| FLA S. Jones | 1.8 | 3 | 0.46 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| TBL O. Bjorkstrand | 1.7 | 0 | 0.54 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| FLA A. Ekblad | 1.7 | 1 | 0.42 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| FLA G. Forsling | 1.7 | 1 | 0.34 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| FLA E. Luostarinen | 1.6 | 3 | 0.51 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| TBL D. Raddysh | 1.3 | 0 | 0.34 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| TBL Y. Gourde | 1.3 | 1 | 0.39 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| FLA N. Mikkola | 1.2 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| TBL M. Crozier | 1.1 | 2 | 0.16 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| TBL Z. Girgensons | 1.1 | 1 | 0.19 | 1 | 11% | 1 |
| TBL J. Pelletier | 1.1 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| TBL J. Moser | 1.0 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| TBL C. D'Astous | 1.0 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| TBL B. Katchouk | 1.0 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| FLA J. Boqvist | 1.0 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| TBL E. Cernak | 1.0 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| TBL G. Goncalves | 0.9 | 0 | 0.35 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| FLA L. Kunin | 0.9 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| FLA A. Greer | 0.9 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| FLA D. Sebrango | 0.8 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| TBL S. Sabourin | 0.8 | 2 | 0.23 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| FLA C. Schwindt | 0.8 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| FLA J. Petry | 0.8 | 2 | 0.20 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| TBL J. Finley | 0.7 | 3 | 0.19 | 1 | 8% | 1 |
| TBL E. Lilleberg | 0.7 | 1 | 0.18 | 1 | 2% | 1 |
| TBL C. Douglas | 0.5 | 0 | 0.11 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.