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Game Recap
TBL4
FLA2
TBL beat FLA 4-2 despite fewer good chances: 2.89 expected goals to 4.08. N. Kucherov led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). E. Luostarinen had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.4. A. Vasilevskiy stopped 24 of 26.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| FLA | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
- 1st 5:37FLAE. Luostarinen0.21 xG
- 1st 13:05TBLJ. GuentzelSH0.16 xG
- 1st 19:52TBLP. Holmberg0.12 xG
- 2nd 2:31TBLN. Kucherov0.18 xG
- 2nd 7:05FLAB. MarchandPP0.16 xG
- 3rd 19:04TBLN. KucherovEN0.35 xG
Team Stats
TBLFLA
25Shots on goal26
2.89Expected goals4.08
43Shot attempts65
165v5 shots on goal16
0/6Power play1/10
32Hits27
17Blocked shots9
87Penalty minutes49
7Giveaways10
5Takeaways3
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
TBL 2.89 xGFLA 4.08 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
TBL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Kucherov | RW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 18:29 | 9:13 |
| A. Cirelli | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 17:10 | 1:44 |
| J. Guentzel | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 3 | +1 | 2 | 27:14 | 8:57 |
| B. Point | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:16 | 8:38 |
| Y. Gourde | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 6 | 15:04 | 0:23 |
| P. Holmberg | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 13:20 | 0:42 |
| G. Goncalves | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 10:52 | 1:24 |
| Z. Girgensons | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16:06 | 0:14 |
| N. Paul | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 14:22 | 1:03 |
| O. Bjorkstrand | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 12:13 | 7:06 |
| S. Sabourin | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 26 | 6:32 | 0:00 |
| C. Douglas | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 3:45 | 0:00 |
| M. Crozier | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | +2 | 6 | 20:25 | 0:19 |
| D. Carlile | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:32 | 0:00 |
| D. Raddysh | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 25:07 | 8:42 |
| J. Moser | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 10 | 22:28 | 0:00 |
| C. D'Astous | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 8 | 16:42 | 2:18 |
| S. Santini | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 7:58 | 0:07 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Vasilevskiy | 26 | 24 | 2 | .923 | 59:46 | Win |
| J. Johansson | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
FLA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Reinhart | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 24:43 | 10:51 |
| B. Marchand | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | -4 | 2 | 21:55 | 8:36 |
| E. Luostarinen | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:14 | 6:04 |
| S. Bennett | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | -4 | 10 | 19:19 | 7:47 |
| M. Samoskevich | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 18:14 | 10:02 |
| E. Rodrigues | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 16:56 | 4:00 |
| A. Lundell | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 20:13 | 6:44 |
| C. Verhaeghe | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -3 | 4 | 14:37 | 2:52 |
| A. Greer | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 10:12 | 0:00 |
| J. Boqvist | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:51 | 0:03 |
| L. Kunin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 4:39 | 0:03 |
| J. Studnicka | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3:42 | 0:03 |
| S. Jones | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 2 | 25:53 | 8:48 |
| A. Ekblad | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 4 | 20:36 | 5:48 |
| G. Forsling | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:00 | 0:10 |
| N. Mikkola | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:47 | 0:14 |
| J. Petry | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 14:28 | 2:33 |
| U. Balinskis | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 9:51 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Bobrovsky | 24 | 21 | 3 | .875 | 58:50 | Loss |
| D. Tarasov | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
TBL
Line 1Y. Gourde9:44P. Holmberg9:29Z. Girgensons9:27
Line 2N. Kucherov8:13B. Point8:18G. Goncalves9:14
Line 3J. Guentzel10:44A. Cirelli8:28O. Bjorkstrand5:07
Line 4S. Sabourin6:32N. Paul7:55C. Douglas3:45
Pair 1C. D'Astous11:54M. Crozier14:32
Pair 2D. Raddysh8:58J. Moser11:26
Pair 3S. Santini6:33D. Carlile11:21
FLA
Line 1S. Reinhart8:59E. Luostarinen9:47A. Lundell8:07
Line 2B. Marchand8:10S. Bennett9:18C. Verhaeghe10:35
Line 3A. Greer9:58E. Rodrigues9:50M. Samoskevich7:30
Line 4J. Boqvist7:12L. Kunin4:36J. Studnicka3:39
Pair 1A. Ekblad10:53G. Forsling12:15
Pair 2J. Petry11:00U. Balinskis9:51
Pair 3S. Jones9:54N. Mikkola10:06
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | TBL 2.9, FLA 2.8 | TBL 4, FLA 2 |
| Total goals | 5.8 | 6 |
| Shots on goal | TBL 25.9, FLA 28.1 | TBL 25, FLA 26 |
| Win chance | TBL 51% | TBL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA S. Bennett | 3.1 | 2 | 0.77 | 1 | 31% | 0 |
| TBL N. Kucherov | 2.7 | 3 | 1.28 | 2 | 31% | 2 |
| FLA B. Marchand | 2.6 | 3 | 0.87 | 1 | 31% | 1 |
| TBL J. Guentzel | 2.5 | 3 | 0.94 | 1 | 35% | 1 |
| FLA S. Reinhart | 2.5 | 1 | 0.88 | 1 | 36% | 0 |
| FLA C. Verhaeghe | 2.5 | 1 | 0.75 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| TBL D. Raddysh | 2.3 | 5 | 0.75 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| TBL B. Point | 2.2 | 2 | 0.87 | 1 | 34% | 0 |
| FLA A. Lundell | 2.1 | 1 | 0.60 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| FLA S. Jones | 2.0 | 2 | 0.48 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| FLA E. Rodrigues | 2.0 | 3 | 0.46 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| FLA M. Samoskevich | 2.0 | 2 | 0.39 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| TBL O. Bjorkstrand | 1.7 | 0 | 0.56 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| TBL A. Cirelli | 1.6 | 1 | 0.53 | 2 | 21% | 0 |
| FLA A. Ekblad | 1.6 | 0 | 0.40 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| FLA G. Forsling | 1.5 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| TBL N. Paul | 1.5 | 2 | 0.39 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| FLA E. Luostarinen | 1.4 | 5 | 0.46 | 1 | 14% | 1 |
| FLA A. Greer | 1.4 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| TBL M. Crozier | 1.4 | 1 | 0.22 | 1 | 3% | 0 |
| TBL Y. Gourde | 1.3 | 1 | 0.41 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| TBL C. D'Astous | 1.3 | 1 | 0.37 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| TBL J. Moser | 1.3 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| FLA N. Mikkola | 1.2 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| TBL Z. Girgensons | 1.2 | 3 | 0.18 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| TBL P. Holmberg | 1.1 | 1 | 0.28 | 1 | 11% | 1 |
| FLA U. Balinskis | 1.0 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| TBL D. Carlile | 1.0 | 0 | 0.17 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| FLA J. Studnicka | 0.9 | 2 | 0.10 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| FLA J. Boqvist | 0.9 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| FLA J. Petry | 0.9 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| TBL G. Goncalves | 0.8 | 1 | 0.29 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| FLA L. Kunin | 0.7 | 1 | 0.12 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| TBL S. Santini | 0.7 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| TBL S. Sabourin | 0.7 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| TBL C. Douglas | 0.6 | 0 | 0.10 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.