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Game Recap
TBL1
LAK2
LAK beat TBL 2-1 despite fewer good chances: 1.99 expected goals to 2.60. TBL outshot LAK 34 to 21. M. Anderson had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.3. D. Kuemper stopped 33 of 34.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| LAK | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
- 1st 1:09TBLV. Hedman0.02 xG
- 1st 7:58LAKM. Anderson0.01 xG
- 3rd 14:12LAKA. Kempe0.24 xG
Team Stats
TBLLAK
34Shots on goal21
2.60Expected goals1.99
68Shot attempts54
325v5 shots on goal19
0/2Power play0/1
25Hits36
16Blocked shots17
4Penalty minutes4
8Giveaways8
4Takeaways1
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
TBL 2.60 xGLAK 1.99 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
TBL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Point | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 21:40 | 2:30 |
| J. Guentzel | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:05 | 2:35 |
| N. Kucherov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 23:24 | 2:49 |
| B. Hagel | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:26 | 2:29 |
| N. Paul | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:55 | 1:28 |
| A. Cirelli | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16:44 | 1:28 |
| M. Chaffee | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 15:39 | 1:11 |
| M. Eyssimont | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:13 | 0:00 |
| C. Geekie | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:43 | 1:28 |
| L. Glendening | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9:21 | 0:00 |
| Z. Girgensons | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:38 | 0:00 |
| C. Atkinson | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:27 | 0:00 |
| V. Hedman | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 4 | +1 | 2 | 24:51 | 2:20 |
| R. McDonagh | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 20:18 | 0:00 |
| D. Raddysh | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 20:03 | 1:42 |
| E. Cernak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:22 | 0:00 |
| N. Perbix | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 14:58 | 0:00 |
| E. Lilleberg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 13:45 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Vasilevskiy | 21 | 19 | 2 | .905 | 57:28 | Loss |
| J. Johansson | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
LAK Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Kempe | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:52 | 1:21 |
| P. Danault | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:07 | 0:43 |
| A. Turcotte | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:38 | 1:03 |
| K. Fiala | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:44 | 2:00 |
| Q. Byfield | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:44 | 0:57 |
| A. Kopitar | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:12 | 1:17 |
| W. Foegele | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:28 | 0:00 |
| A. Laferriere | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 17:10 | 0:36 |
| T. Moore | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:35 | 0:00 |
| T. Lewis | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10:47 | 0:00 |
| T. Jeannot | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:30 | 0:00 |
| M. Anderson | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 25:51 | 0:00 |
| V. Gavrikov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 25:24 | 0:03 |
| J. Spence | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:25 | 0:51 |
| J. Edmundson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:46 | 0:00 |
| B. Clarke | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13:48 | 1:09 |
| J. Moverare | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:06 | 0:00 |
| A. Englund | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4:53 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Kuemper | 34 | 33 | 1 | .971 | 60:00 | Win |
| D. Rittich | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | TBL 3.0, LAK 3.1 | TBL 1, LAK 2 |
| Total goals | 6.2 | 3 |
| Shots on goal | TBL 25.2, LAK 29.3 | TBL 34, LAK 21 |
| Win chance | LAK 52% | LAK won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK A. Kempe | 3.1 | 1 | 1.00 | 1 | 38% | 1 |
| LAK K. Fiala | 2.8 | 0 | 0.89 | 0 | 32% | 0 |
| TBL N. Kucherov | 2.7 | 3 | 1.27 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| TBL J. Guentzel | 2.5 | 3 | 0.88 | 1 | 34% | 0 |
| LAK W. Foegele | 2.4 | 0 | 0.58 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| LAK T. Moore | 2.4 | 1 | 0.61 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| LAK A. Laferriere | 2.3 | 2 | 0.56 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| TBL B. Point | 2.3 | 2 | 1.00 | 1 | 38% | 0 |
| TBL B. Hagel | 2.2 | 2 | 0.89 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| LAK Q. Byfield | 2.1 | 1 | 0.68 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| LAK P. Danault | 1.8 | 0 | 0.60 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| TBL V. Hedman | 1.7 | 4 | 0.65 | 1 | 10% | 1 |
| LAK B. Clarke | 1.7 | 3 | 0.42 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| TBL A. Cirelli | 1.6 | 2 | 0.60 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| LAK A. Kopitar | 1.5 | 1 | 0.89 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| TBL N. Paul | 1.5 | 3 | 0.44 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| TBL M. Eyssimont | 1.4 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| LAK V. Gavrikov | 1.4 | 0 | 0.37 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| LAK M. Anderson | 1.3 | 5 | 0.32 | 1 | 7% | 1 |
| LAK J. Edmundson | 1.3 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| LAK A. Turcotte | 1.2 | 1 | 0.39 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| TBL D. Raddysh | 1.1 | 3 | 0.32 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| LAK T. Lewis | 1.1 | 2 | 0.19 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| TBL C. Geekie | 1.1 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| TBL C. Atkinson | 1.0 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| LAK T. Jeannot | 1.0 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| LAK J. Spence | 1.0 | 2 | 0.32 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| TBL M. Chaffee | 0.9 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| TBL R. McDonagh | 0.9 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| TBL N. Perbix | 0.9 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| TBL Z. Girgensons | 0.9 | 3 | 0.16 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| TBL E. Lilleberg | 0.7 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| TBL L. Glendening | 0.7 | 0 | 0.12 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| TBL E. Cernak | 0.7 | 4 | 0.18 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| LAK J. Moverare | 0.6 | 1 | 0.10 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| LAK A. Englund | 0.4 | 0 | 0.10 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.