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Game Recap
TBL5
LAK3
TBL beat LAK 5-3, and the chances backed it up: 3.98 expected goals to 2.85. N. Kucherov led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). B. Point had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.2. J. Johansson stopped 17 of 20.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 |
| LAK | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
- 1st 3:34TBLB. PointPP0.19 xG
- 1st 4:43LAKJ. Malott0.10 xG
- 1st 6:14LAKA. KuzmenkoPP0.36 xG
- 2nd 18:07TBLB. Point0.18 xG
- 3rd 1:37LAKK. FialaPP0.10 xG
- 3rd 16:41TBLA. Cirelli0.22 xG
- 3rd 18:19TBLG. Goncalves0.28 xG
- 3rd 19:15TBLN. KucherovEN0.95 xG
Team Stats
TBLLAK
24Shots on goal20
3.98Expected goals2.85
58Shot attempts47
195v5 shots on goal17
1/2Power play2/3
22Hits20
12Blocked shots21
11Penalty minutes9
10Giveaways19
2Takeaways6
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
TBL 3.98 xGLAK 2.85 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
TBL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Kucherov | RW | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 0 | 20:51 | 2:15 |
| B. Point | C | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:56 | 2:17 |
| J. Guentzel | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:44 | 2:17 |
| A. Cirelli | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 17:13 | 1:28 |
| B. Hagel | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 18:32 | 0:27 |
| G. Goncalves | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 16:50 | 0:26 |
| Y. Gourde | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 5 | 15:18 | 0:00 |
| Z. Girgensons | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:24 | 0:00 |
| P. Holmberg | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 11:55 | 0:00 |
| O. Bjorkstrand | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 10:21 | 1:13 |
| N. Paul | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 9:58 | 0:25 |
| D. James | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 9:23 | 0:00 |
| D. Raddysh | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 2 | 24:55 | 2:13 |
| J. Moser | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 24:49 | 0:00 |
| C. D'Astous | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | +2 | 0 | 21:39 | 0:29 |
| E. Cernak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 20:13 | 0:00 |
| M. Crozier | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 2 | 14:25 | 0:00 |
| D. Carlile | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 11:24 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Johansson | 20 | 17 | 3 | .850 | 60:00 | Win |
| A. Vasilevskiy | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
LAK Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Perry | RW | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 11:29 | 2:12 |
| K. Fiala | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 19:22 | 2:09 |
| A. Kuzmenko | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 16:47 | 2:08 |
| J. Malott | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 7:47 | 0:00 |
| Q. Byfield | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:01 | 2:09 |
| A. Kempe | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 18:37 | 1:02 |
| A. Laferriere | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:25 | 1:00 |
| A. Kopitar | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 2 | 16:53 | 0:58 |
| A. Turcotte | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 15:49 | 0:00 |
| W. Foegele | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:45 | 0:00 |
| J. Armia | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:11 | 1:01 |
| S. Helenius | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 7:22 | 0:00 |
| D. Doughty | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 2 | 22:15 | 0:52 |
| M. Anderson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 21:35 | 0:00 |
| B. Clarke | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 5 | -1 | 0 | 20:20 | 2:18 |
| J. Edmundson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 19:19 | 0:01 |
| B. Dumoulin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 16:50 | 0:00 |
| C. Ceci | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:45 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Kuemper | 23 | 19 | 4 | .826 | 59:46 | Loss |
| A. Forsberg | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
TBL
Line 1N. Kucherov18:22B. Point16:39G. Goncalves16:24
Line 2A. Cirelli14:06B. Hagel16:16J. Guentzel15:27
Line 3Y. Gourde13:33P. Holmberg11:55Z. Girgensons11:02
Line 4D. James9:23O. Bjorkstrand9:08N. Paul9:21
Pair 1D. Raddysh20:54J. Moser23:07
Pair 2C. D'Astous19:28E. Cernak18:36
Pair 3M. Crozier14:25D. Carlile11:24
LAK
Line 1K. Fiala16:59A. Kuzmenko14:25A. Turcotte15:49
Line 2A. Kopitar15:04A. Kempe16:54A. Laferriere15:20
Line 3W. Foegele14:46Q. Byfield15:41J. Armia13:06
Line 4C. Perry9:03S. Helenius7:22J. Malott7:47
Pair 1D. Doughty21:09M. Anderson19:33
Pair 2J. Edmundson17:18B. Clarke18:02
Pair 3B. Dumoulin16:08C. Ceci15:04
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | TBL 2.8, LAK 2.9 | TBL 5, LAK 3 |
| Total goals | 5.7 | 8 |
| Shots on goal | TBL 25.4, LAK 27.6 | TBL 24, LAK 20 |
| Win chance | LAK 52% | TBL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL N. Kucherov | 2.7 | 2 | 1.22 | 3 | 30% | 1 |
| LAK A. Kempe | 2.7 | 1 | 0.83 | 0 | 33% | 0 |
| LAK K. Fiala | 2.7 | 3 | 0.73 | 2 | 30% | 1 |
| TBL J. Guentzel | 2.6 | 2 | 0.88 | 2 | 34% | 0 |
| LAK A. Laferriere | 2.4 | 1 | 0.49 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| TBL B. Hagel | 2.3 | 3 | 0.72 | 1 | 25% | 0 |
| TBL D. Raddysh | 2.2 | 0 | 0.60 | 2 | 12% | 0 |
| TBL B. Point | 2.2 | 5 | 0.81 | 2 | 32% | 2 |
| LAK Q. Byfield | 2.1 | 0 | 0.62 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| LAK W. Foegele | 2.0 | 2 | 0.39 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| LAK B. Clarke | 1.9 | 4 | 0.43 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| TBL A. Cirelli | 1.7 | 4 | 0.50 | 2 | 19% | 1 |
| LAK C. Perry | 1.6 | 2 | 0.43 | 3 | 21% | 0 |
| TBL O. Bjorkstrand | 1.6 | 2 | 0.50 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| LAK D. Doughty | 1.6 | 0 | 0.54 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| TBL N. Paul | 1.5 | 1 | 0.36 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| LAK A. Kuzmenko | 1.4 | 1 | 0.53 | 2 | 23% | 1 |
| LAK A. Kopitar | 1.4 | 0 | 0.72 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| TBL Y. Gourde | 1.3 | 1 | 0.38 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| TBL Z. Girgensons | 1.3 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| LAK J. Armia | 1.3 | 3 | 0.38 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| TBL M. Crozier | 1.3 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| LAK J. Edmundson | 1.2 | 2 | 0.22 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| TBL J. Moser | 1.2 | 1 | 0.26 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| LAK A. Turcotte | 1.2 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| TBL P. Holmberg | 1.1 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| TBL C. D'Astous | 1.1 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| LAK B. Dumoulin | 0.9 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| TBL D. James | 0.9 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| LAK M. Anderson | 0.9 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| TBL E. Cernak | 0.9 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| LAK C. Ceci | 0.9 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| TBL D. Carlile | 0.9 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| TBL G. Goncalves | 0.8 | 2 | 0.30 | 1 | 10% | 1 |
| LAK J. Malott | 0.8 | 1 | 0.10 | 1 | 7% | 1 |
| LAK S. Helenius | 0.3 | 0 | 0.09 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.