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Game Recap
TBL1
MIN5
MIN beat TBL 5-1, with the chances close: 2.98 expected goals to 2.26. M. Boldy led the way with 3 points (0 G, 3 A). Y. Trenin had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.2. F. Gustavsson stopped 24 of 25.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| MIN | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
- 1st 3:46MINB. Faber0.06 xG
- 2nd 4:59MINM. ZuccarelloPP0.05 xG
- 2nd 15:07TBLN. Kucherov0.12 xG
- 2nd 17:10MINY. Trenin0.29 xG
- 3rd 6:53MINQ. Hughes0.14 xG
- 3rd 16:41MINK. KaprizovEN0.41 xG
Team Stats
TBLMIN
25Shots on goal22
2.26Expected goals2.98
52Shot attempts48
195v5 shots on goal16
0/3Power play1/5
25Hits22
13Blocked shots15
18Penalty minutes8
8Giveaways11
3Takeaways4
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
TBL 2.26 xGMIN 2.98 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
TBL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Kucherov | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 22:56 | 4:59 |
| J. Guentzel | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22:11 | 4:59 |
| B. Point | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 19:50 | 4:48 |
| B. Hagel | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 20:50 | 2:23 |
| Y. Gourde | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:19 | 0:11 |
| A. Cirelli | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 2 | 16:12 | 0:00 |
| O. Bjorkstrand | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:56 | 2:36 |
| Z. Girgensons | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:07 | 0:00 |
| P. Holmberg | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 12:59 | 0:00 |
| C. Geekie | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 10:40 | 0:00 |
| S. Sabourin | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 7:29 | 0:00 |
| D. Raddysh | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 23:07 | 4:33 |
| V. Hedman | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 16:51 | 0:26 |
| J. Moser | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:14 | 0:00 |
| C. D'Astous | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 0 | 15:43 | 0:00 |
| E. Cernak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:37 | 0:00 |
| R. McDonagh | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 14:49 | 0:00 |
| E. Lilleberg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:08 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Vasilevskiy | 21 | 17 | 4 | .810 | 58:18 | Loss |
| J. Johansson | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
MIN Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Boldy | LW | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 19:57 | 6:27 |
| M. Zuccarello | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:24 | 6:16 |
| K. Kaprizov | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 2 | 22:11 | 5:09 |
| Y. Trenin | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:18 | 0:20 |
| M. Johansson | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:45 | 0:48 |
| J. Eriksson Ek | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 18:20 | 5:45 |
| R. Hartman | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16:29 | 0:47 |
| V. Tarasenko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:21 | 1:33 |
| D. Yurov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:54 | 0:17 |
| N. Sturm | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:06 | 0:00 |
| R. Fabbri | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:16 | 0:00 |
| V. Hinostroza | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8:05 | 0:00 |
| Q. Hughes | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 26:01 | 6:44 |
| B. Faber | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 24:12 | 1:11 |
| J. Middleton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | +1 | 0 | 18:26 | 0:00 |
| J. Spurgeon | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 15:27 | 0:58 |
| J. Brodin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 15:24 | 0:04 |
| Z. Bogosian | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14:25 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Gustavsson | 25 | 24 | 1 | .960 | 60:00 | Win |
| J. Wallstedt | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
TBL
Line 1J. Guentzel14:42B. Point13:37N. Kucherov16:27
Line 2A. Cirelli12:10B. Hagel14:25O. Bjorkstrand12:35
Line 3Y. Gourde11:50P. Holmberg12:36Z. Girgensons10:10
Line 4S. Sabourin7:29C. Geekie10:12
Pair 1D. Raddysh17:03J. Moser14:02
Pair 2R. McDonagh9:39E. Cernak10:05
Pair 3V. Hedman13:26C. D'Astous14:59
MIN
Line 1M. Zuccarello14:08R. Hartman15:08K. Kaprizov15:58
Line 2D. Yurov12:45Y. Trenin11:50V. Tarasenko12:48
Line 3J. Ek9:53M. Boldy10:33M. Johansson9:09
Line 4N. Sturm7:37R. Fabbri8:32V. Hinostroza7:23
Pair 2Z. Bogosian13:10J. Middleton14:05
Pair 3J. Spurgeon12:36J. Brodin14:31
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | TBL 3.5, MIN 3.0 | TBL 1, MIN 5 |
| Total goals | 6.5 | 6 |
| Shots on goal | TBL 30.2, MIN 28.2 | TBL 25, MIN 22 |
| Win chance | TBL 56% | MIN won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN K. Kaprizov | 3.5 | 3 | 1.13 | 1 | 43% | 1 |
| TBL N. Kucherov | 3.2 | 1 | 1.55 | 1 | 36% | 1 |
| MIN M. Boldy | 3.0 | 3 | 0.91 | 3 | 33% | 0 |
| TBL B. Hagel | 3.0 | 2 | 0.97 | 0 | 32% | 0 |
| TBL D. Raddysh | 2.8 | 4 | 0.77 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| MIN Q. Hughes | 2.8 | 4 | 0.93 | 2 | 13% | 1 |
| TBL J. Guentzel | 2.6 | 5 | 0.94 | 1 | 34% | 0 |
| MIN J. Ek | 2.5 | 0 | 0.61 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| TBL B. Point | 2.2 | 0 | 0.88 | 1 | 34% | 0 |
| MIN R. Hartman | 2.2 | 0 | 0.49 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| MIN M. Zuccarello | 2.0 | 2 | 0.75 | 2 | 22% | 1 |
| MIN B. Faber | 1.9 | 2 | 0.40 | 2 | 11% | 1 |
| TBL O. Bjorkstrand | 1.8 | 3 | 0.55 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| MIN V. Tarasenko | 1.7 | 0 | 0.46 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| TBL Y. Gourde | 1.5 | 3 | 0.45 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| TBL A. Cirelli | 1.5 | 0 | 0.47 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| TBL V. Hedman | 1.4 | 1 | 0.43 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| TBL Z. Girgensons | 1.4 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| TBL P. Holmberg | 1.4 | 1 | 0.34 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| MIN M. Johansson | 1.3 | 0 | 0.44 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| TBL J. Moser | 1.3 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| MIN J. Spurgeon | 1.3 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| MIN Y. Trenin | 1.2 | 4 | 0.26 | 1 | 13% | 1 |
| MIN R. Fabbri | 1.2 | 2 | 0.30 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| MIN D. Yurov | 1.1 | 0 | 0.37 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| TBL C. D'Astous | 1.1 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| MIN J. Brodin | 1.1 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| MIN J. Middleton | 1.0 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| TBL C. Geekie | 1.0 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| TBL R. McDonagh | 1.0 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| TBL E. Cernak | 1.0 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| MIN Z. Bogosian | 0.9 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| MIN V. Hinostroza | 0.9 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| TBL E. Lilleberg | 0.8 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| MIN N. Sturm | 0.8 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| TBL S. Sabourin | 0.5 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.