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Game Recap
TBL4
Final/OTSat, Nov 7, 2026Every game that night
MIN3

TBL beat MIN 4-3 in overtime, and the chances backed it up: 3.58 expected goals to 2.16. TBL outshot MIN 34 to 22. J. Guentzel led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). N. Kucherov had 9 shots on goal against our projection of 3.0. D. Hildeby stopped 19 of 22.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdOTT
TBL01214
MIN20103
  1. 1st 0:55MINB. Coleman0.06 xG
  2. 1st 2:58MINM. ShabanovPP0.23 xG
  3. 2nd 16:34TBLJ. GuentzelPP0.04 xG
  4. 3rd 6:49MINM. Shabanov0.16 xG
  5. 3rd 13:44TBLJ. Guentzel0.10 xG
  6. 3rd 16:29TBLC. D'AstousPP0.06 xG
  7. OT 3:23TBLN. KucherovPP0.10 xG

Team Stats

TBLMIN
34Shots on goal22
3.58Expected goals2.16
82Shot attempts41
205v5 shots on goal13
3/6Power play1/3
19Hits21
10Blocked shots22
11Penalty minutes19
12Giveaways11
6Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

TBL 3.58 xGMIN 2.16 xGGoal

00.511.522.533.541st2nd3rdOTMIN goal, 0:55MIN goal, 2:58TBL goal, 16:34MIN goal, 6:49TBL goal, 13:44TBL goal, 16:29TBL goal, 3:23

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

TBL33 on goal, 4 scored
MIN21 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

TBL Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
J. GuentzelC2137100224:348:46
N. KucherovRW1129000025:319:18
B. PointC0222000021:558:44
Z. GirgensonsC0001220017:100:19
B. HagelLW0000000016:462:10
A. CirelliC0002100013:411:38
P. HolmbergRW0003100013:250:04
I. MikheyevRW0001000013:250:02
G. GoncalvesC0000000010:441:12
C. GeekieC000320-109:351:11
S. SabourinRW000150-158:050:00
J. VielLW000140-127:280:00
C. D'AstousD1233120024:387:59
J. CarlsonD022110+1022:128:01
V. HedmanD000002-1020:521:37
J. MoserD000001-1219:280:00
E. CernakD000012-1018:270:07
R. McDonaghD0000010016:020:02
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
D. Hildeby22193.86463:15Win
A. Vasilevskiy000–0:00

MIN Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
M. ShabanovRW202300+1013:194:05
K. KaprizovLW0115100220:263:55
J. Eriksson EkC011200+2019:033:36
B. ColemanLW1011210218:511:36
M. BoldyLW0002100221:563:56
D. YurovRW0000020016:371:16
R. HartmanRW000002-1415:381:17
B. BrinkRW0001300013:030:43
N. SturmC0000010012:460:00
Y. TreninC000140+1012:190:00
N. FolignoLW000040028:050:24
M. FolignoLW000031057:170:00
Q. HughesD0111120229:294:46
O. MaattaD011001+1022:200:00
J. BrodinD0002060026:500:00
Z. BogosianD000212+1015:490:00
M. KierstedD0002020014:300:00
D. SpacekD0000120010:280:26
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
C. Pickard34304.88263:16OT loss
J. Wallstedt000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

TBL

Line 1J. Guentzel13:32B. Point12:39N. Kucherov14:14
Line 2A. Cirelli10:56B. Hagel12:45G. Goncalves9:32
Line 3Z. Girgensons10:55I. Mikheyev10:01P. Holmberg10:42
Line 4S. Sabourin8:05C. Geekie8:24J. Viel7:28
Pair 1J. Moser16:07V. Hedman15:26
Pair 2J. Carlson13:39C. D'Astous14:45
Pair 3R. McDonagh12:58E. Cernak13:47

MIN

Line 1B. Coleman13:26R. Hartman14:16B. Brink12:20
Line 2K. Kaprizov14:35M. Boldy12:28J. Ek11:08
Line 3D. Yurov10:09Y. Trenin9:30M. Shabanov8:28
Line 4N. Foligno7:41N. Sturm7:53M. Foligno7:17
Pair 1J. Brodin18:13Q. Hughes20:41
Pair 2M. Kiersted11:32D. Spacek9:55
Pair 3Z. Bogosian12:00O. Maatta14:23

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

7 of 16 overs hit (44%).

PlayerLineOverUnderSOGResult
MIN K. Kaprizov3.5+125-1505Over
MIN M. Boldy3.5+115-1462Under
TBL B. Hagel2.5-122+1050Under
TBL B. Point2.5+141-1752Under
MIN J. Ek2.5-150+1202Under
TBL J. Guentzel2.5+100-1257Over
TBL N. Kucherov2.5-144+1159Over
MIN Q. Hughes2.5+125-1381Under
TBL A. Cirelli1.5-110-1142Over
MIN B. Coleman1.5-156+1351Under
TBL C. D'Astous1.5+135-1553Over
MIN D. Yurov1.5+105-1250Under
MIN J. Brodin1.5+170-2002Over
TBL J. Carlson1.5-130+1061Under
MIN M. Shabanov1.5+105-1153Over
TBL V. Hedman1.5+120–0Under

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreTBL 3.7, MIN 3.1TBL 4, MIN 3
Total goals6.77
Shots on goalTBL 28.2, MIN 27.0TBL 34, MIN 22
Win chanceTBL 59%TBL won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
MIN M. Boldy3.320.96035%0
TBL N. Kucherov3.091.49237%1
TBL B. Hagel2.901.02036%0
MIN K. Kaprizov2.851.13142%0
TBL J. Guentzel2.771.07338%2
MIN J. Ek2.720.72127%0
MIN Q. Hughes2.411.08116%0
TBL B. Point2.220.97237%0
MIN B. Coleman2.010.44121%1
TBL J. Carlson1.810.58213%0
MIN R. Hartman1.700.43019%0
TBL A. Cirelli1.620.65024%0
TBL C. D'Astous1.430.52311%1
MIN M. Shabanov1.430.49217%2
TBL I. Mikheyev1.410.41019%0
MIN J. Brodin1.420.3305%0
TBL P. Holmberg1.430.41017%0
TBL G. Goncalves1.300.49016%0
TBL V. Hedman1.300.4209%0
MIN B. Brink1.310.40015%0
MIN D. Yurov1.300.37017%0
TBL Z. Girgensons1.110.23011%0
TBL E. Cernak1.100.2505%0
MIN Y. Trenin1.010.24011%0
TBL C. Geekie1.030.26013%0
TBL J. Viel1.010.22010%0
TBL J. Moser1.000.2406%0
MIN M. Foligno0.900.23012%0
MIN Z. Bogosian0.920.1504%0
MIN O. Maatta0.800.2815%0
TBL R. McDonagh0.800.3406%0
MIN M. Kiersted0.820.1603%0
MIN N. Foligno0.800.2208%0
MIN N. Sturm0.700.2008%0
MIN D. Spacek0.700.0802%0
TBL S. Sabourin0.510.2007%0

Shots on goal: 18 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.