Game Recap: TBL 2, MTL 3, January 21, 2025

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Game Recap

TBL2

FinalTue, Jan 21, 2025Every game that night

MTL3

MTL beat TBL 3-2 despite fewer good chances: 2.15 expected goals to 4.22. TBL outshot MTL 35 to 22. P. Laine led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). B. Point had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.4. S. Montembeault stopped 33 of 35.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
TBL	1	1	0	2
MTL	0	2	1	3

1st 14:20TBLN. Kucherov0.24 xG
2nd 2:45TBLJ. Guentzel0.16 xG
2nd 5:32MTLJ. SlafkovskýPP0.13 xG
2nd 7:21MTLA. Newhook0.09 xG
3rd 17:45MTLJ. Evans0.14 xG

Team Stats

TBLMTL

35Shots on goal22

4.22Expected goals2.15

64Shot attempts51

275v5 shots on goal19

0/4Power play1/2

18Hits23

15Blocked shots11

4Penalty minutes8

16Giveaways11

0Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

TBL 4.22 xGMTL 2.15 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

TBL35 on goal, 2 scored

MTL22 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

TBL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Kucherov	RW	1	0	1	4	1	0	+1	0	26:55	7:28
A. Cirelli	C	0	1	1	3	0	1	+1	0	21:29	2:18
J. Guentzel	C	1	0	1	5	0	1	0	0	18:17	5:20
M. Eyssimont	C	0	1	1	2	2	2	0	0	11:21	0:00
B. Hagel	LW	0	0	0	3	1	1	+1	0	22:49	2:24
B. Point	C	0	0	0	5	0	1	-1	0	19:55	4:54
N. Paul	LW	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	17:31	2:19
Z. Girgensons	C	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	12:51	0:00
C. Geekie	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	11:09	0:14
M. Chaffee	RW	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	10:17	4:43
L. Glendening	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	7:44	0:00
C. Atkinson	RW	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	7:09	0:59
E. Lilleberg	D	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	14:19	0:00
D. Raddysh	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	-1	0	24:05	5:13
V. Hedman	D	0	0	0	3	1	4	-1	0	23:48	2:32
R. McDonagh	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	+1	0	18:46	0:00
M. Crozier	D	0	0	0	1	3	2	+1	0	18:41	0:00
N. Perbix	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	12:07	0:06

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Vasilevskiy	22	19	3	.864	58:09	Loss
J. Johansson	0	0	0	–	0:00

MTL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
P. Laine	LW	0	2	2	3	0	0	0	0	14:38	1:54
J. Armia	RW	0	1	1	3	2	2	+1	0	16:58	0:00
J. Slafkovský	LW	1	0	1	4	3	1	0	0	16:21	1:53
J. Evans	C	1	0	1	2	2	1	+1	0	16:19	0:00
A. Newhook	C	1	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	14:23	0:27
N. Suzuki	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	19:54	1:56
C. Caufield	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	15:16	1:53
C. Dvorak	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	2	14:11	0:27
J. Anderson	RW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	14:03	0:00
K. Dach	C	0	0	0	1	4	1	0	0	13:23	0:24
B. Gallagher	RW	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	2	11:21	0:26
O. Beck	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	6:57	0:00
L. Hutson	D	0	1	1	1	3	2	0	2	21:01	1:53
A. Carrier	D	0	1	1	1	0	1	+2	0	20:02	0:00
M. Matheson	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	2	23:42	0:27
K. Guhle	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	+1	0	21:24	0:00
D. Savard	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	0	18:47	0:00
A. Xhekaj	D	0	0	0	2	2	1	-1	0	13:20	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Montembeault	35	33	2	.943	60:00	Win
J. Dobes	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

BirthdayKirby Dach MTL Turns 24 that day1 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	TBL 3.3, MTL 3.3	TBL 2, MTL 3
Total goals	6.6	5
Shots on goal	TBL 28.2, MTL 29.1	TBL 35, MTL 22
Win chance	TBL 51%	MTL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
TBL N. Kucherov	3.3	4	1.55	1	37%	1
MTL C. Caufield	3.3	1	0.84	0	34%	0
MTL P. Laine	2.6	3	0.79	2	32%	0
TBL J. Guentzel	2.6	5	0.95	1	36%	1
TBL B. Hagel	2.6	3	0.95	0	32%	0
TBL B. Point	2.4	5	1.05	0	41%	0
TBL V. Hedman	2.2	3	0.85	0	13%	0
MTL M. Matheson	2.1	0	0.64	0	13%	0
MTL N. Suzuki	2.1	1	0.91	0	28%	0
TBL A. Cirelli	2.0	3	0.68	1	26%	0
MTL B. Gallagher	1.8	0	0.40	0	18%	0
TBL N. Paul	1.8	2	0.51	0	23%	0
MTL K. Dach	1.7	1	0.47	0	18%	0
MTL J. Armia	1.7	3	0.40	1	18%	0
TBL M. Eyssimont	1.6	2	0.21	1	10%	0
MTL J. Slafkovský	1.5	4	0.58	1	19%	1
MTL A. Newhook	1.5	1	0.46	1	20%	1
MTL J. Anderson	1.5	0	0.35	0	17%	0
TBL D. Raddysh	1.5	2	0.48	0	7%	0
MTL K. Guhle	1.4	0	0.34	0	9%	0
MTL C. Dvorak	1.3	0	0.40	0	15%	0
MTL L. Hutson	1.2	1	0.76	1	7%	0
TBL Z. Girgensons	1.2	1	0.17	0	10%	0
MTL A. Carrier	1.1	1	0.33	1	5%	0
TBL C. Atkinson	1.1	0	0.22	0	11%	0
TBL R. McDonagh	1.0	0	0.34	0	4%	0
TBL M. Crozier	1.0	1	0.15	0	3%	0
MTL J. Evans	1.0	2	0.42	1	13%	1
TBL N. Perbix	1.0	1	0.31	0	5%	0
MTL A. Xhekaj	1.0	2	0.16	0	5%	0
TBL C. Geekie	1.0	1	0.26	0	12%	0
TBL M. Chaffee	0.9	0	0.24	0	14%	0
TBL E. Lilleberg	0.8	1	0.22	1	2%	0
TBL L. Glendening	0.7	1	0.12	0	8%	0
MTL D. Savard	0.7	2	0.25	0	5%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.