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Game Recap
TBL5
MTL3
TBL beat MTL 5-3 despite fewer good chances: 3.16 expected goals to 4.04. MTL outshot TBL 35 to 21. B. Gallagher led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). J. Anderson had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.5. A. Vasilevskiy stopped 32 of 35.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| MTL | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
- 1st 6:56TBLN. Paul0.13 xG
- 1st 10:28TBLV. Hedman0.25 xG
- 1st 18:53MTLB. GallagherPP0.07 xG
- 2nd 1:05TBLB. PointPP0.17 xG
- 2nd 6:43TBLZ. Girgensons0.22 xG
- 2nd 12:45MTLC. Dvorak0.06 xG
- 3rd 9:19MTLB. Gallagher0.10 xG
- 3rd 19:44TBLA. CirelliEN0.80 xG
Team Stats
TBLMTL
21Shots on goal35
3.16Expected goals4.04
44Shot attempts83
145v5 shots on goal31
1/1Power play1/2
26Hits29
25Blocked shots16
6Penalty minutes4
14Giveaways19
7Takeaways11
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
TBL 3.16 xGMTL 4.04 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
TBL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Hagel | LW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 23:12 | 1:39 |
| A. Cirelli | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 18:50 | 1:43 |
| J. Guentzel | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 18:43 | 1:39 |
| N. Paul | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 18:22 | 0:00 |
| B. Point | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 18:18 | 1:43 |
| G. Goncalves | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:21 | 0:00 |
| Z. Girgensons | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 14:39 | 0:00 |
| M. Eyssimont | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 10:37 | 0:00 |
| C. Atkinson | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 9:50 | 0:00 |
| L. Glendening | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 11:43 | 0:04 |
| D. Duke | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 8:05 | 0:00 |
| M. Chaffee | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 7:49 | 0:00 |
| V. Hedman | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -1 | 0 | 23:50 | 1:43 |
| R. McDonagh | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 22:10 | 0:00 |
| E. Cernak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +3 | 0 | 20:52 | 0:00 |
| N. Perbix | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 18:22 | 0:00 |
| D. Raddysh | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 17:30 | 0:04 |
| E. Lilleberg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 15:58 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Vasilevskiy | 35 | 32 | 3 | .914 | 60:00 | Win |
| B. Halverson | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
MTL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Gallagher | RW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:50 | 1:52 |
| A. Newhook | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:00 | 2:00 |
| J. Slafkovský | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:34 | 1:55 |
| C. Dvorak | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:43 | 2:01 |
| C. Caufield | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 20:49 | 1:47 |
| N. Suzuki | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 20:26 | 1:50 |
| J. Evans | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:43 | 0:00 |
| K. Dach | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 15:52 | 1:54 |
| J. Anderson | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 15:25 | 0:00 |
| P. Laine | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 11:13 | 1:53 |
| O. Beck | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:01 | 0:00 |
| J. Armia | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:31 | 0:00 |
| M. Matheson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 23:31 | 1:51 |
| D. Savard | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 14:19 | 0:00 |
| A. Carrier | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 23:23 | 0:00 |
| L. Hutson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 0 | 22:05 | 1:58 |
| J. Struble | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:50 | 0:04 |
| A. Xhekaj | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:35 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Dobes | 8 | 5 | 3 | .625 | 21:05 | |
| S. Montembeault | 12 | 11 | 1 | .917 | 37:22 | Loss |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | TBL 3.4, MTL 2.8 | TBL 5, MTL 3 |
| Total goals | 6.2 | 8 |
| Shots on goal | TBL 29.1, MTL 27.1 | TBL 21, MTL 35 |
| Win chance | TBL 59% | TBL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL C. Caufield | 3.2 | 5 | 0.76 | 0 | 32% | 0 |
| TBL J. Guentzel | 3.0 | 3 | 1.02 | 2 | 39% | 0 |
| TBL B. Hagel | 2.8 | 1 | 0.98 | 2 | 33% | 0 |
| TBL B. Point | 2.7 | 2 | 1.08 | 1 | 42% | 1 |
| TBL V. Hedman | 2.2 | 2 | 0.83 | 2 | 13% | 1 |
| MTL P. Laine | 2.2 | 1 | 0.60 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| TBL A. Cirelli | 2.1 | 1 | 0.68 | 2 | 26% | 1 |
| MTL N. Suzuki | 2.0 | 2 | 0.80 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| MTL M. Matheson | 1.9 | 5 | 0.53 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| MTL B. Gallagher | 1.9 | 3 | 0.38 | 2 | 17% | 2 |
| TBL N. Paul | 1.8 | 1 | 0.50 | 1 | 23% | 1 |
| MTL J. Slafkovský | 1.7 | 0 | 0.57 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| TBL D. Raddysh | 1.7 | 2 | 0.47 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| MTL J. Armia | 1.7 | 1 | 0.36 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| TBL M. Eyssimont | 1.6 | 0 | 0.21 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| MTL J. Anderson | 1.5 | 6 | 0.31 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| MTL A. Newhook | 1.4 | 0 | 0.41 | 1 | 18% | 0 |
| MTL K. Dach | 1.4 | 1 | 0.40 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| MTL C. Dvorak | 1.4 | 2 | 0.38 | 1 | 15% | 1 |
| MTL A. Xhekaj | 1.3 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| TBL Z. Girgensons | 1.3 | 2 | 0.18 | 1 | 11% | 1 |
| MTL L. Hutson | 1.2 | 1 | 0.62 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| MTL A. Carrier | 1.2 | 2 | 0.32 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| TBL R. McDonagh | 1.1 | 0 | 0.36 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| MTL J. Evans | 1.1 | 0 | 0.39 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| TBL C. Atkinson | 1.1 | 0 | 0.20 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| TBL G. Goncalves | 1.0 | 2 | 0.24 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| TBL E. Cernak | 0.9 | 3 | 0.26 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| MTL O. Beck | 0.9 | 2 | 0.17 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| TBL N. Perbix | 0.9 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| TBL M. Chaffee | 0.8 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| TBL L. Glendening | 0.8 | 0 | 0.13 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| MTL J. Struble | 0.8 | 2 | 0.15 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| MTL D. Savard | 0.7 | 1 | 0.24 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| TBL E. Lilleberg | 0.7 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 18 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.