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Game Recap
TBL6
MTL1
TBL beat MTL 6-1, with the chances close: 2.63 expected goals to 2.80. D. Raddysh led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). Z. Girgensons had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.2. J. Johansson stopped 26 of 27.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 |
| MTL | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
- 1st 2:27TBLB. Point0.19 xG
- 1st 6:03TBLP. Holmberg0.28 xG
- 1st 17:12TBLN. Kucherov0.05 xG
- 2nd 2:43TBLC. D'Astous0.19 xG
- 2nd 19:06MTLO. KapanenPP0.22 xG
- 3rd 1:22TBLD. Raddysh0.13 xG
- 3rd 8:41TBLD. RaddyshPP0.03 xG
Team Stats
TBLMTL
27Shots on goal27
2.63Expected goals2.80
59Shot attempts59
235v5 shots on goal17
1/3Power play1/4
27Hits24
16Blocked shots18
17Penalty minutes15
10Giveaways14
4Takeaways3
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
TBL 2.63 xGMTL 2.80 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
TBL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Point | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 17:44 | 2:49 |
| N. Kucherov | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 2 | 17:43 | 3:50 |
| J. Guentzel | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 19:28 | 3:14 |
| O. Bjorkstrand | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:59 | 2:57 |
| A. Cirelli | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 14:44 | 0:02 |
| P. Holmberg | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 12:34 | 0:02 |
| B. Hagel | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 16:54 | 1:13 |
| Y. Gourde | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:44 | 1:05 |
| Z. Girgensons | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:58 | 0:02 |
| N. Paul | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:22 | 0:46 |
| C. Douglas | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 9:49 | 0:00 |
| S. Sabourin | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 5 | 8:26 | 0:00 |
| D. Raddysh | D | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | +3 | 0 | 24:26 | 3:22 |
| C. D'Astous | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | +5 | 4 | 23:46 | 0:40 |
| M. Crozier | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | +1 | 2 | 15:18 | 0:00 |
| E. Lilleberg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | +1 | 2 | 23:45 | 0:02 |
| J. Moser | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 22:13 | 0:16 |
| V. Hedman | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6:14 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Johansson | 27 | 26 | 1 | .963 | 60:00 | Win |
| B. Halverson | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
MTL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Suzuki | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 19:45 | 6:08 |
| O. Kapanen | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 16:24 | 3:29 |
| I. Demidov | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 15:48 | 3:26 |
| C. Caufield | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 18:02 | 5:18 |
| J. Slafkovský | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 16:41 | 3:25 |
| Z. Bolduc | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 15:47 | 3:25 |
| A. Texier | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:38 | 0:05 |
| J. Evans | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:08 | 0:00 |
| J. Veleno | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 12:59 | 0:00 |
| B. Gallagher | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 12:46 | 2:10 |
| J. Anderson | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 5 | 12:32 | 0:00 |
| J. Davidson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 12:15 | 0:00 |
| M. Matheson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 0 | 22:04 | 0:18 |
| A. Carrier | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 20:52 | 0:00 |
| L. Hutson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 20:14 | 3:46 |
| N. Dobson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 0 | 19:24 | 3:10 |
| A. Xhekaj | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 16:01 | 0:00 |
| J. Struble | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 14:49 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Dobes | 14 | 11 | 3 | .786 | 19:50 | Loss |
| S. Montembeault | 13 | 10 | 3 | .769 | 40:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
TBL
Line 1J. Guentzel16:06B. Point14:50O. Bjorkstrand11:55
Line 2Y. Gourde12:01Z. Girgensons12:25P. Holmberg12:32
Line 3N. Paul10:39C. Douglas9:49S. Sabourin8:26
Line 4A. Cirelli10:15B. Hagel10:35N. Kucherov13:53
Pair 1C. D'Astous21:19E. Lilleberg19:40
Pair 2D. Raddysh17:48J. Moser17:52
Pair 3V. Hedman4:54M. Crozier14:26
MTL
Line 1N. Suzuki13:25J. Slafkovský13:04C. Caufield12:34
Line 2J. Veleno11:21J. Davidson12:15Z. Bolduc12:22
Line 3A. Texier14:33I. Demidov11:15O. Kapanen10:23
Line 4J. Anderson10:08J. Evans11:43B. Gallagher10:36
Pair 1M. Matheson16:59N. Dobson13:29
Pair 2A. Carrier18:26A. Xhekaj16:01
Pair 3L. Hutson16:11J. Struble14:40
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | TBL 3.1, MTL 2.9 | TBL 6, MTL 1 |
| Total goals | 6.0 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | TBL 26.2, MTL 25.8 | TBL 27, MTL 27 |
| Win chance | TBL 53% | TBL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL N. Kucherov | 3.3 | 2 | 1.56 | 2 | 37% | 1 |
| MTL C. Caufield | 3.1 | 2 | 0.83 | 0 | 35% | 0 |
| TBL J. Guentzel | 2.8 | 1 | 1.04 | 1 | 39% | 0 |
| TBL B. Hagel | 2.6 | 0 | 0.90 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| TBL B. Point | 2.2 | 2 | 0.89 | 2 | 35% | 1 |
| MTL N. Dobson | 2.2 | 3 | 0.54 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| MTL N. Suzuki | 2.1 | 4 | 0.90 | 1 | 28% | 0 |
| MTL J. Slafkovský | 2.1 | 2 | 0.61 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| TBL D. Raddysh | 2.0 | 3 | 0.69 | 2 | 11% | 2 |
| TBL A. Cirelli | 2.0 | 0 | 0.64 | 1 | 24% | 0 |
| TBL N. Paul | 1.8 | 0 | 0.52 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| MTL M. Matheson | 1.7 | 2 | 0.43 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| TBL O. Bjorkstrand | 1.6 | 1 | 0.54 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| MTL O. Kapanen | 1.6 | 3 | 0.44 | 1 | 19% | 1 |
| TBL V. Hedman | 1.6 | 1 | 0.62 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| MTL B. Gallagher | 1.6 | 0 | 0.35 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| MTL L. Hutson | 1.5 | 3 | 0.74 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| TBL Y. Gourde | 1.4 | 1 | 0.45 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| MTL I. Demidov | 1.4 | 1 | 0.67 | 1 | 18% | 0 |
| MTL Z. Bolduc | 1.4 | 0 | 0.41 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| MTL A. Texier | 1.4 | 1 | 0.37 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| MTL J. Anderson | 1.4 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| TBL M. Crozier | 1.3 | 2 | 0.17 | 1 | 3% | 0 |
| TBL Z. Girgensons | 1.2 | 6 | 0.20 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| TBL C. D'Astous | 1.1 | 5 | 0.37 | 1 | 8% | 1 |
| TBL P. Holmberg | 1.1 | 2 | 0.28 | 1 | 11% | 1 |
| TBL J. Moser | 1.1 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| MTL J. Veleno | 1.0 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| MTL J. Evans | 1.0 | 1 | 0.34 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| TBL S. Sabourin | 0.9 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| MTL A. Carrier | 0.9 | 2 | 0.26 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| MTL J. Davidson | 0.9 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| MTL A. Xhekaj | 0.9 | 1 | 0.09 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| TBL E. Lilleberg | 0.8 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| MTL J. Struble | 0.7 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| TBL C. Douglas | 0.5 | 0 | 0.10 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.