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Game Recap
TBL1
MTL2
MTL beat TBL 2-1, and the chances backed it up: 3.93 expected goals to 1.68. J. Slafkovský led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). J. Dobes stopped 17 of 18.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| MTL | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
- 2nd 6:30MTLC. Caufield0.09 xG
- 3rd 18:09TBLD. Raddysh0.06 xG
- 3rd 18:56MTLJ. Slafkovský0.25 xG
Team Stats
TBLMTL
18Shots on goal21
1.68Expected goals3.93
35Shot attempts58
95v5 shots on goal13
0/4Power play0/7
29Hits34
13Blocked shots9
71Penalty minutes55
17Giveaways15
5Takeaways6
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
TBL 1.68 xGMTL 3.93 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
TBL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Kucherov | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 23:12 | 7:30 |
| G. Goncalves | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:19 | 0:29 |
| J. Guentzel | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 26:38 | 7:58 |
| B. Point | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 21:22 | 7:48 |
| A. Cirelli | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 20:28 | 0:02 |
| Y. Gourde | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | -1 | 4 | 14:05 | 0:00 |
| C. Perry | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 13:17 | 5:28 |
| Z. Girgensons | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:25 | 0:00 |
| O. Bjorkstrand | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10:46 | 1:53 |
| N. Paul | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 12 | 7:38 | 0:03 |
| J. Pelletier | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7:06 | 0:36 |
| D. Raddysh | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 14 | 13:59 | 8:00 |
| R. McDonagh | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 22:47 | 0:13 |
| E. Cernak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 22:05 | 0:00 |
| J. Moser | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 20:41 | 0:00 |
| E. Lilleberg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 18:43 | 0:00 |
| C. D'Astous | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 9:12 | 0:00 |
| D. Carlile | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 5:02 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Vasilevskiy | 21 | 19 | 2 | .905 | 58:15 | Loss |
| J. Johansson | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
MTL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Suzuki | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 22:25 | 9:10 |
| J. Slafkovský | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 21:23 | 9:10 |
| C. Caufield | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 17:56 | 8:38 |
| I. Demidov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 19:14 | 10:02 |
| A. Newhook | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:56 | 5:24 |
| K. Dach | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:38 | 4:55 |
| O. Kapanen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:03 | 4:41 |
| P. Danault | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:40 | 0:00 |
| J. Anderson | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 11 | 12:32 | 0:00 |
| J. Evans | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 12:29 | 0:00 |
| J. Veleno | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10:44 | 0:00 |
| A. Texier | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 9:03 | 3:07 |
| L. Hutson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 29:17 | 9:47 |
| M. Matheson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 25:39 | 0:51 |
| N. Dobson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 22:55 | 4:15 |
| J. Struble | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 12 | 11:09 | 0:00 |
| A. Engstrom | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9:12 | 0:00 |
| A. Xhekaj | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8:45 | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
TBL
Line 1B. Point12:07G. Goncalves13:15N. Kucherov13:57
Line 2J. Guentzel9:20A. Cirelli12:19O. Bjorkstrand8:53
Line 3Y. Gourde10:00Z. Girgensons7:54J. Pelletier6:23
Pair 1R. McDonagh14:02E. Cernak13:57
Pair 2E. Lilleberg12:36J. Moser15:45
MTL
Line 1N. Suzuki11:26J. Slafkovský10:57C. Caufield9:18
Line 2K. Dach9:19A. Newhook11:18P. Danault9:26
Line 3O. Kapanen8:14I. Demidov8:48A. Texier5:49
Line 4J. Veleno7:50J. Anderson9:27J. Evans6:48
Pair 1L. Hutson16:47J. Struble10:39
Pair 2M. Matheson15:42N. Dobson12:05
Pair 3A. Xhekaj8:23A. Engstrom8:59
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | TBL 3.6, MTL 3.2 | TBL 1, MTL 2 |
| Total goals | 6.8 | 3 |
| Shots on goal | TBL 28.4, MTL 26.7 | TBL 18, MTL 21 |
| Win chance | TBL 55% | MTL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL C. Caufield | 3.1 | 5 | 0.92 | 1 | 36% | 1 |
| TBL N. Kucherov | 3.0 | 1 | 1.52 | 1 | 36% | 0 |
| TBL J. Guentzel | 2.8 | 4 | 1.02 | 0 | 37% | 0 |
| TBL D. Raddysh | 2.5 | 5 | 0.73 | 1 | 15% | 1 |
| MTL J. Slafkovský | 2.3 | 3 | 0.79 | 2 | 26% | 1 |
| TBL B. Point | 2.2 | 1 | 0.89 | 0 | 35% | 0 |
| MTL N. Suzuki | 2.1 | 1 | 0.99 | 2 | 28% | 0 |
| MTL N. Dobson | 2.1 | 2 | 0.56 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| MTL I. Demidov | 1.7 | 1 | 0.79 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| TBL A. Cirelli | 1.7 | 1 | 0.63 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| MTL L. Hutson | 1.6 | 1 | 0.90 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| MTL M. Matheson | 1.5 | 0 | 0.40 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| TBL O. Bjorkstrand | 1.5 | 0 | 0.40 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| MTL A. Texier | 1.5 | 1 | 0.40 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| MTL O. Kapanen | 1.4 | 1 | 0.40 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| MTL A. Newhook | 1.4 | 2 | 0.42 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| TBL Y. Gourde | 1.4 | 1 | 0.41 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| TBL G. Goncalves | 1.3 | 2 | 0.52 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| TBL C. Perry | 1.3 | 0 | 0.41 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| TBL N. Paul | 1.3 | 0 | 0.34 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| MTL J. Anderson | 1.2 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| TBL J. Moser | 1.2 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| TBL Z. Girgensons | 1.2 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| MTL K. Dach | 1.1 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| TBL C. D'Astous | 1.1 | 0 | 0.39 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| MTL P. Danault | 1.1 | 1 | 0.34 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| TBL J. Pelletier | 1.1 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| MTL J. Evans | 1.1 | 1 | 0.37 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| MTL J. Veleno | 0.9 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| TBL E. Cernak | 0.8 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| TBL E. Lilleberg | 0.8 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| TBL D. Carlile | 0.8 | 0 | 0.11 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| TBL R. McDonagh | 0.8 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| MTL A. Engstrom | 0.7 | 1 | 0.13 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| MTL A. Xhekaj | 0.6 | 0 | 0.08 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| MTL J. Struble | 0.6 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.