Game Recap: TBL 2, MTL 3 (OT), April 24, 2026

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Game Recap

TBL2

Final/OTFri, Apr 24, 2026PlayoffsEvery game that night

MTL3

MTL beat TBL 3-2 in overtime, with the chances close: 2.53 expected goals to 2.52. MTL outshot TBL 29 to 17. K. Dach led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). J. Moser had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.3. J. Dobes stopped 15 of 17.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
TBL	1	1	0	0	2
MTL	1	1	0	1	3

1st 4:53MTLA. Texier0.22 xG
1st 7:42TBLB. PointPP0.15 xG
2nd 4:47TBLB. Hagel0.02 xG
2nd 12:43MTLK. Dach0.06 xG
OT 2:09MTLL. Hutson0.04 xG

Team Stats

TBLMTL

17Shots on goal29

2.52Expected goals2.53

50Shot attempts49

105v5 shots on goal21

1/5Power play0/4

31Hits36

14Blocked shots19

14Penalty minutes12

9Giveaways17

8Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

TBL 2.52 xGMTL 2.53 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

TBL17 on goal, 2 scored

MTL26 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

TBL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Hagel	LW	1	0	1	2	1	0	+1	2	24:58	7:10
J. Guentzel	C	0	1	1	0	1	0	-1	0	24:17	7:58
N. Kucherov	RW	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	2	20:35	7:56
B. Point	C	1	0	1	1	1	0	-2	0	18:22	6:30
A. Cirelli	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	+1	0	17:52	0:16
Y. Gourde	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	16:08	0:00
G. Goncalves	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-2	0	16:04	1:55
Z. Girgensons	C	0	0	0	1	4	2	0	2	13:18	0:00
D. James	C	0	0	0	2	2	1	-2	0	12:20	1:39
C. Perry	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	9:32	3:06
N. Paul	LW	0	0	0	1	3	1	-1	0	7:58	1:54
S. Sabourin	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	3:44	0:00
D. Raddysh	D	0	0	0	1	3	0	-1	2	26:17	7:17
J. Moser	D	0	0	0	4	2	3	0	0	25:27	2:19
R. McDonagh	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	20:12	0:00
E. Cernak	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	+1	2	17:54	0:00
E. Lilleberg	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	-2	4	14:27	0:00
D. Carlile	D	0	0	0	0	7	2	-2	0	11:20	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Vasilevskiy	29	26	3	.897	62:09	Loss
J. Johansson	0	0	0	–	0:00

MTL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
Z. Bolduc	RW	0	2	2	3	1	2	+3	0	12:19	1:46
K. Dach	C	1	1	2	2	1	0	+3	2	11:32	2:14
A. Texier	LW	1	1	2	1	1	0	+3	0	11:29	2:10
N. Suzuki	C	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	21:11	5:45
J. Slafkovský	LW	0	0	0	1	2	2	0	0	18:08	5:31
A. Newhook	C	0	0	0	2	1	2	0	0	17:51	2:16
C. Caufield	RW	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	17:37	5:33
I. Demidov	RW	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	2	17:32	5:37
J. Evans	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	-1	0	16:18	0:10
P. Danault	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	2	15:18	0:11
J. Anderson	RW	0	0	0	1	4	1	0	2	14:51	0:11
O. Kapanen	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	8:35	0:00
L. Hutson	D	1	0	1	2	3	4	0	0	26:40	6:15
A. Xhekaj	D	0	1	1	2	8	0	+2	2	10:40	0:00
M. Matheson	D	0	0	0	3	1	1	0	2	24:36	2:03
A. Carrier	D	0	0	0	1	0	4	0	0	23:25	0:18
K. Guhle	D	0	0	0	0	4	3	0	0	21:44	0:00
J. Struble	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	+2	0	9:58	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Dobes	17	15	2	.882	61:34	Win
J. Fowler	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

TBL

Line 1A. Cirelli11:55B. Hagel13:01N. Kucherov11:44

Line 2Z. Girgensons11:05Y. Gourde13:11J. Guentzel13:19

Line 3G. Goncalves13:22D. James10:41B. Point10:47

Line 4C. Perry6:11S. Sabourin3:44N. Paul6:04

Pair 1D. Raddysh17:13J. Moser17:45

Pair 2R. McDonagh15:05E. Cernak13:26

Pair 3E. Lilleberg11:20D. Carlile9:57

MTL

Line 1N. Suzuki13:02J. Slafkovský11:00C. Caufield10:33

Line 2P. Danault10:29J. Anderson11:07J. Evans11:09

Line 3I. Demidov10:27A. Newhook10:24O. Kapanen8:35

Line 4Z. Bolduc10:22A. Texier9:19K. Dach9:18

Pair 1K. Guhle15:24L. Hutson17:26

Pair 2M. Matheson15:22A. Carrier15:15

Pair 3J. Struble9:58A. Xhekaj10:40

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	TBL 3.4, MTL 3.1	TBL 2, MTL 3
Total goals	6.5	5
Shots on goal	TBL 27.9, MTL 25.7	TBL 17, MTL 29
Win chance	TBL 55%	MTL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
MTL C. Caufield	3.3	1	0.97	0	38%	0
TBL N. Kucherov	3.0	1	1.52	1	37%	0
TBL B. Hagel	3.0	2	1.07	1	35%	1
TBL J. Guentzel	3.0	0	1.10	1	39%	0
TBL D. Raddysh	2.7	1	0.75	0	16%	0
MTL J. Slafkovský	2.4	1	0.85	0	28%	0
TBL B. Point	2.3	1	0.95	1	36%	1
MTL N. Suzuki	2.2	2	1.05	0	28%	0
TBL A. Cirelli	1.8	1	0.67	0	24%	0
MTL I. Demidov	1.7	3	0.78	0	22%	0
MTL L. Hutson	1.7	2	0.97	1	13%	1
MTL M. Matheson	1.5	3	0.42	0	9%	0
TBL N. Paul	1.5	1	0.36	0	18%	0
MTL A. Newhook	1.5	2	0.45	0	19%	0
TBL Y. Gourde	1.4	0	0.41	0	14%	0
MTL A. Texier	1.4	1	0.39	2	16%	1
MTL J. Anderson	1.4	1	0.33	0	17%	0
TBL D. James	1.3	2	0.34	0	14%	0
TBL J. Moser	1.3	4	0.33	0	7%	0
TBL G. Goncalves	1.3	1	0.48	0	16%	0
TBL C. Perry	1.2	0	0.36	0	18%	0
MTL K. Guhle	1.2	0	0.29	0	8%	0
MTL Z. Bolduc	1.2	3	0.36	2	16%	0
MTL O. Kapanen	1.2	0	0.32	0	15%	0
MTL P. Danault	1.1	3	0.36	0	13%	0
TBL Z. Girgensons	1.1	1	0.22	0	11%	0
MTL J. Evans	1.0	1	0.36	0	13%	0
MTL K. Dach	1.0	2	0.31	2	12%	1
TBL E. Cernak	1.0	1	0.21	0	4%	0
TBL R. McDonagh	0.9	0	0.36	0	5%	0
TBL D. Carlile	0.9	0	0.11	0	5%	0
MTL A. Carrier	0.9	1	0.30	0	6%	0
TBL E. Lilleberg	0.9	1	0.25	0	4%	0
MTL A. Xhekaj	0.7	2	0.09	1	3%	0
MTL J. Struble	0.6	1	0.20	0	4%	0
TBL S. Sabourin	0.5	0	0.19	0	6%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.