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Game Recap
TBL3
MTL2
TBL beat MTL 3-2, with the chances close: 3.67 expected goals to 3.01. B. Hagel led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). A. Vasilevskiy stopped 16 of 18.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| MTL | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
- 2nd 10:06MTLZ. Bolduc0.04 xG
- 2nd 13:29MTLC. CaufieldPP0.29 xG
- 2nd 19:06TBLJ. Guentzel0.27 xG
- 3rd 1:40TBLB. HagelPP0.22 xG
- 3rd 15:07TBLB. Hagel0.22 xG
Team Stats
TBLMTL
20Shots on goal18
3.67Expected goals3.01
54Shot attempts48
115v5 shots on goal9
1/7Power play1/6
28Hits50
14Blocked shots13
16Penalty minutes16
15Giveaways4
5Takeaways7
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
TBL 3.67 xGMTL 3.01 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
TBL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Hagel | LW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 25:34 | 7:52 |
| N. Kucherov | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 22:57 | 9:24 |
| J. Guentzel | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 22:40 | 9:40 |
| B. Point | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:57 | 8:57 |
| A. Cirelli | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 18:58 | 1:02 |
| Y. Gourde | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 12:46 | 0:00 |
| D. James | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:25 | 0:24 |
| G. Goncalves | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 10:44 | 0:23 |
| C. Perry | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:50 | 2:12 |
| Z. Girgensons | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 8:46 | 0:00 |
| O. Bjorkstrand | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 8:18 | 0:00 |
| N. Paul | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7:33 | 0:24 |
| J. Moser | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 19:33 | 0:00 |
| D. Raddysh | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 25:18 | 9:54 |
| R. McDonagh | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 20:22 | 0:04 |
| E. Cernak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:37 | 0:11 |
| E. Lilleberg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:43 | 0:02 |
| M. Crozier | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 11:54 | 0:01 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Vasilevskiy | 18 | 16 | 2 | .889 | 60:00 | Win |
| J. Johansson | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
MTL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Suzuki | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 4 | -1 | 0 | 22:23 | 6:50 |
| C. Caufield | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:03 | 6:52 |
| A. Texier | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:44 | 2:40 |
| Z. Bolduc | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 11:53 | 2:04 |
| J. Slafkovský | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:46 | 7:01 |
| J. Evans | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 15:49 | 0:09 |
| A. Newhook | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 15:47 | 2:14 |
| I. Demidov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:29 | 6:37 |
| P. Danault | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:02 | 1:01 |
| J. Anderson | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13:18 | 0:06 |
| K. Dach | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 9:51 | 1:24 |
| O. Kapanen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7:32 | 0:49 |
| L. Hutson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 26:15 | 7:14 |
| K. Guhle | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 22:48 | 0:02 |
| M. Matheson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 4 | 23:08 | 2:33 |
| A. Carrier | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 21:24 | 0:19 |
| J. Struble | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:24 | 0:00 |
| A. Xhekaj | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 8:18 | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
TBL
Line 1N. Kucherov12:41B. Hagel11:29B. Point10:06
Line 2D. James11:01G. Goncalves10:21O. Bjorkstrand8:18
Line 3A. Cirelli10:20Y. Gourde10:15J. Guentzel9:51
Line 4C. Perry6:38Z. Girgensons6:54N. Paul7:07
Pair 1D. Raddysh14:49J. Moser15:35
Pair 2R. McDonagh12:22E. Cernak12:34
Pair 3E. Lilleberg11:03M. Crozier10:56
MTL
Line 1N. Suzuki11:28J. Slafkovský11:07C. Caufield10:39
Line 2P. Danault10:07J. Anderson10:51J. Evans9:55
Line 4I. Demidov7:46A. Newhook8:17O. Kapanen6:43
Pair 2M. Matheson13:30A. Carrier12:38
Pair 3J. Struble8:51A. Xhekaj8:18
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | TBL 3.4, MTL 3.1 | TBL 3, MTL 2 |
| Total goals | 6.5 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | TBL 27.2, MTL 25.8 | TBL 20, MTL 18 |
| Win chance | TBL 54% | TBL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL C. Caufield | 3.2 | 2 | 0.95 | 1 | 37% | 1 |
| TBL B. Hagel | 3.1 | 3 | 1.10 | 2 | 36% | 2 |
| TBL N. Kucherov | 3.0 | 3 | 1.51 | 2 | 36% | 0 |
| TBL J. Guentzel | 2.9 | 2 | 1.11 | 2 | 39% | 1 |
| TBL D. Raddysh | 2.7 | 3 | 0.74 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| MTL J. Slafkovský | 2.3 | 2 | 0.82 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| TBL B. Point | 2.2 | 3 | 0.92 | 0 | 36% | 0 |
| MTL N. Suzuki | 2.2 | 3 | 1.04 | 1 | 28% | 0 |
| MTL I. Demidov | 1.8 | 1 | 0.77 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| TBL A. Cirelli | 1.8 | 0 | 0.65 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| MTL L. Hutson | 1.7 | 1 | 0.97 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| MTL M. Matheson | 1.6 | 2 | 0.42 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| TBL O. Bjorkstrand | 1.5 | 0 | 0.44 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| MTL A. Newhook | 1.5 | 0 | 0.46 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| TBL J. Moser | 1.4 | 1 | 0.34 | 2 | 8% | 0 |
| TBL Y. Gourde | 1.4 | 1 | 0.40 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| TBL N. Paul | 1.4 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| MTL J. Anderson | 1.4 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| MTL A. Texier | 1.4 | 0 | 0.39 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| TBL D. James | 1.3 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| TBL M. Crozier | 1.3 | 2 | 0.21 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| TBL G. Goncalves | 1.3 | 0 | 0.47 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| MTL Z. Bolduc | 1.2 | 2 | 0.38 | 1 | 16% | 1 |
| MTL K. Guhle | 1.2 | 1 | 0.29 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| TBL C. Perry | 1.2 | 2 | 0.35 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| MTL P. Danault | 1.2 | 1 | 0.36 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| TBL Z. Girgensons | 1.1 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| MTL O. Kapanen | 1.1 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| MTL J. Evans | 1.1 | 0 | 0.36 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| MTL K. Dach | 1.0 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| TBL E. Cernak | 1.0 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| MTL A. Carrier | 0.9 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| TBL R. McDonagh | 0.9 | 0 | 0.35 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| TBL E. Lilleberg | 0.8 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| MTL A. Xhekaj | 0.7 | 0 | 0.10 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| MTL J. Struble | 0.6 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 25 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.5 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.