Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!
Game Recap
TBL1
MTL0
TBL beat MTL 1-0 in overtime, with the chances close: 4.69 expected goals to 3.96. I. Demidov had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.6. A. Vasilevskiy stopped 30 of 30.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| MTL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
- OT 9:03TBLG. Goncalves0.78 xG
Team Stats
TBLMTL
33Shots on goal30
4.69Expected goals3.96
89Shot attempts65
275v5 shots on goal25
0/3Power play0/3
38Hits49
13Blocked shots22
8Penalty minutes8
17Giveaways20
6Takeaways3
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
TBL 4.69 xGMTL 3.96 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
TBL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Hagel | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 29:05 | 5:09 |
| G. Goncalves | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:26 | 0:50 |
| D. James | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:36 | 0:51 |
| A. Cirelli | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23:11 | 0:00 |
| N. Kucherov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 22:50 | 5:10 |
| J. Guentzel | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 20:55 | 5:11 |
| B. Point | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:21 | 5:16 |
| Y. Gourde | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:53 | 0:00 |
| Z. Girgensons | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:44 | 0:00 |
| N. Paul | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:25 | 0:49 |
| O. Bjorkstrand | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:24 | 0:00 |
| C. Perry | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:43 | 0:35 |
| D. Raddysh | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 28:11 | 5:20 |
| J. Moser | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 25:34 | 0:04 |
| E. Cernak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 23:10 | 0:01 |
| R. McDonagh | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 21:52 | 0:00 |
| C. D'Astous | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 18:29 | 0:44 |
| E. Lilleberg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:26 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Vasilevskiy | 30 | 30 | 0 | 1.000 | 69:03 | Win |
| J. Johansson | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
MTL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Suzuki | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 24:55 | 4:49 |
| J. Slafkovský | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 22:31 | 4:38 |
| C. Caufield | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:41 | 4:24 |
| P. Danault | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:31 | 0:00 |
| J. Anderson | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:53 | 0:00 |
| I. Demidov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 17:38 | 4:31 |
| A. Texier | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 17:05 | 1:10 |
| J. Evans | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16:08 | 0:00 |
| Z. Bolduc | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:39 | 1:34 |
| A. Newhook | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:31 | 0:54 |
| K. Dach | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:09 | 1:30 |
| B. Gallagher | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5:39 | 0:00 |
| L. Hutson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 30:46 | 5:12 |
| M. Matheson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 28:47 | 0:48 |
| A. Carrier | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 24:29 | 0:30 |
| K. Guhle | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 2 | 24:14 | 0:00 |
| J. Struble | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12:53 | 0:00 |
| A. Xhekaj | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 11:46 | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
TBL
Line 1B. Hagel19:11A. Cirelli18:32N. Kucherov17:01
Line 2G. Goncalves14:36D. James12:45O. Bjorkstrand12:24
Line 3J. Guentzel13:58B. Point12:02C. Perry9:08
Line 4Y. Gourde12:16Z. Girgensons10:17N. Paul11:36
Pair 1D. Raddysh21:38J. Moser22:35
Pair 2R. McDonagh17:52E. Cernak20:03
Pair 3E. Lilleberg12:52C. D'Astous16:29
MTL
Line 1N. Suzuki18:50C. Caufield14:24J. Slafkovský16:52
Line 3P. Danault17:24J. Anderson16:44I. Demidov13:07
Line 4B. Gallagher5:39A. Newhook9:01J. Evans12:11
Pair 1M. Matheson21:42A. Carrier19:52
Pair 3J. Struble12:53A. Xhekaj11:46
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | TBL 3.4, MTL 3.0 | TBL 1, MTL 0 |
| Total goals | 6.4 | 1 |
| Shots on goal | TBL 27.5, MTL 25.2 | TBL 33, MTL 30 |
| Win chance | TBL 55% | TBL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL B. Hagel | 3.2 | 3 | 1.11 | 1 | 37% | 0 |
| TBL N. Kucherov | 3.2 | 6 | 1.54 | 0 | 37% | 0 |
| TBL J. Guentzel | 2.9 | 3 | 1.11 | 0 | 39% | 0 |
| MTL C. Caufield | 2.9 | 4 | 0.88 | 0 | 35% | 0 |
| TBL D. Raddysh | 2.9 | 6 | 0.76 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| MTL J. Slafkovský | 2.3 | 2 | 0.80 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| TBL B. Point | 2.3 | 1 | 0.94 | 0 | 37% | 0 |
| MTL N. Suzuki | 2.1 | 0 | 1.03 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| TBL A. Cirelli | 1.8 | 0 | 0.66 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| MTL L. Hutson | 1.6 | 2 | 0.95 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| MTL I. Demidov | 1.6 | 5 | 0.70 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| MTL M. Matheson | 1.6 | 0 | 0.44 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| MTL A. Newhook | 1.5 | 1 | 0.45 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| TBL O. Bjorkstrand | 1.4 | 0 | 0.38 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| MTL A. Texier | 1.3 | 3 | 0.41 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| MTL J. Anderson | 1.3 | 3 | 0.32 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| TBL D. James | 1.3 | 3 | 0.34 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| TBL J. Moser | 1.3 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| TBL Y. Gourde | 1.3 | 2 | 0.37 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| MTL K. Guhle | 1.2 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| TBL N. Paul | 1.2 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| MTL P. Danault | 1.2 | 2 | 0.38 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| MTL Z. Bolduc | 1.2 | 3 | 0.40 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| MTL B. Gallagher | 1.2 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| TBL G. Goncalves | 1.2 | 2 | 0.44 | 1 | 15% | 1 |
| TBL C. Perry | 1.1 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| MTL J. Evans | 1.1 | 2 | 0.36 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| MTL K. Dach | 1.0 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| TBL C. D'Astous | 1.0 | 4 | 0.32 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| TBL E. Cernak | 0.9 | 2 | 0.20 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| MTL A. Carrier | 0.9 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| TBL Z. Girgensons | 0.9 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| TBL R. McDonagh | 0.9 | 0 | 0.34 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| TBL E. Lilleberg | 0.8 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| MTL A. Xhekaj | 0.7 | 1 | 0.09 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| MTL J. Struble | 0.5 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 18 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.