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Game Recap
TBL8
NJD5
TBL beat NJD 8-5, and the chances backed it up: 4.27 expected goals to 3.17. B. Hagel scored three for TBL. J. Guentzel had 9 shots on goal against our projection of 2.9. J. Johansson stopped 30 of 35.
Team Stats
TBLNJD
37Shots on goal35
4.27Expected goals3.17
56Shot attempts62
295v5 shots on goal28
2/2Power play2/3
13Hits23
20Blocked shots9
8Penalty minutes6
9Giveaways13
4Takeaways5
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
TBL 4.27 xGNJD 3.17 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
TBL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Hagel | LW | 3 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 15:54 | 1:08 |
| A. Cirelli | C | 0 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 13:07 | 0:34 |
| J. Guentzel | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:11 | 1:42 |
| N. Kucherov | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:00 | 1:42 |
| B. Point | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:17 | 1:42 |
| N. Paul | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:18 | 0:00 |
| C. Geekie | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 12:48 | 0:00 |
| Z. Girgensons | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:22 | 0:00 |
| M. Eyssimont | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 12:49 | 0:00 |
| M. Chaffee | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:32 | 0:00 |
| L. Glendening | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 11:38 | 0:00 |
| C. Sheary | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:37 | 0:00 |
| J. Moser | D | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 20:52 | 0:38 |
| V. Hedman | D | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 22:02 | 1:04 |
| E. Lilleberg | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | +2 | 2 | 19:05 | 0:00 |
| N. Perbix | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 17:21 | 0:00 |
| R. McDonagh | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 19:48 | 0:00 |
| E. Cernak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 19:43 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Johansson | 35 | 30 | 5 | .857 | 59:57 | Win |
| A. Vasilevskiy | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
NJD Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Hughes | C | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:19 | 3:47 |
| T. Meier | RW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14:07 | 1:27 |
| J. Bratt | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:18 | 3:45 |
| S. Noesen | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 14:10 | 3:12 |
| O. Palat | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:40 | 0:00 |
| N. Bastian | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:06 | 0:00 |
| C. Lazar | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 11:43 | 0:00 |
| T. Tatar | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 11:42 | 0:41 |
| N. Hischier | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 19:47 | 3:46 |
| D. Mercer | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 16:03 | 0:42 |
| P. Cotter | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -3 | 2 | 13:33 | 0:12 |
| E. Haula | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 13:25 | 0:52 |
| D. Hamilton | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 22:30 | 3:32 |
| S. Nemec | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 16:28 | 1:07 |
| J. Siegenthaler | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 23:30 | 0:07 |
| J. Kovacevic | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 22:30 | 0:00 |
| B. Dillon | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 0 | 18:33 | 0:05 |
| D.Misyul | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 12:23 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Allen | 37 | 29 | 8 | .784 | 59:31 | Loss |
| J. Markstrom | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | TBL 3.3, NJD 3.5 | TBL 8, NJD 5 |
| Total goals | 6.8 | 13 |
| Shots on goal | TBL 27.6, NJD 30.5 | TBL 37, NJD 35 |
| Win chance | NJD 53% | TBL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD J. Hughes | 3.9 | 2 | 1.21 | 3 | 38% | 1 |
| TBL N. Kucherov | 3.2 | 3 | 1.46 | 2 | 36% | 0 |
| NJD T. Meier | 3.2 | 5 | 0.84 | 2 | 34% | 2 |
| NJD D. Hamilton | 2.9 | 4 | 0.73 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| NJD J. Bratt | 2.9 | 3 | 1.01 | 1 | 30% | 0 |
| TBL J. Guentzel | 2.9 | 9 | 0.92 | 2 | 34% | 1 |
| NJD N. Hischier | 2.8 | 2 | 1.05 | 0 | 32% | 0 |
| TBL B. Point | 2.6 | 2 | 1.00 | 1 | 40% | 1 |
| TBL V. Hedman | 2.2 | 6 | 0.83 | 2 | 12% | 2 |
| TBL B. Hagel | 2.1 | 3 | 0.78 | 4 | 28% | 3 |
| NJD E. Haula | 1.8 | 3 | 0.51 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| NJD D. Mercer | 1.7 | 3 | 0.57 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| TBL N. Paul | 1.7 | 1 | 0.45 | 1 | 21% | 0 |
| TBL M. Eyssimont | 1.6 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| NJD S. Noesen | 1.5 | 3 | 0.56 | 1 | 19% | 1 |
| TBL A. Cirelli | 1.5 | 2 | 0.50 | 4 | 19% | 0 |
| NJD P. Cotter | 1.4 | 1 | 0.41 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| NJD T. Tatar | 1.2 | 0 | 0.39 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| NJD O. Palat | 1.2 | 0 | 0.41 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| NJD J. Siegenthaler | 1.1 | 2 | 0.23 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NJD N. Bastian | 1.1 | 2 | 0.28 | 1 | 12% | 1 |
| TBL R. McDonagh | 1.1 | 1 | 0.34 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| NJD J. Kovacevic | 1.0 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| TBL C. Sheary | 1.0 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| TBL Z. Girgensons | 1.0 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| NJD B. Dillon | 1.0 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| NJD C. Lazar | 1.0 | 1 | 0.26 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| TBL J. Moser | 1.0 | 1 | 0.32 | 3 | 6% | 1 |
| NJD S. Nemec | 1.0 | 2 | 0.24 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| TBL C. Geekie | 0.9 | 1 | 0.22 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| TBL E. Cernak | 0.8 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| TBL M. Chaffee | 0.8 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| TBL N. Perbix | 0.8 | 2 | 0.26 | 1 | 3% | 0 |
| TBL E. Lilleberg | 0.7 | 1 | 0.14 | 1 | 2% | 0 |
| TBL L. Glendening | 0.7 | 2 | 0.11 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 21 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.