Game Recap: TBL 8, NJD 4, December 11, 2025

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Game Recap

TBL8

FinalThu, Dec 11, 2025Every game that night

NJD4

TBL beat NJD 8-4, with the chances close: 3.80 expected goals to 3.33. N. Kucherov led the way with 4 points (0 G, 4 A). S. Noesen had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.4. J. Johansson stopped 33 of 37.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
TBL	4	2	2	8
NJD	1	1	2	4

1st 2:57TBLN. Paul0.14 xG
1st 3:48TBLD. Raddysh0.03 xG
1st 7:00NJDL. Hughes0.12 xG
1st 7:56TBLP. Holmberg0.02 xG
1st 15:00TBLJ. GuentzelPP0.52 xG
2nd 6:19TBLO. Bjorkstrand0.22 xG
2nd 13:12NJDJ. BrattPP0.38 xG
2nd 16:35TBLB. Hagel0.06 xG
3rd 3:13NJDA. Crookshank0.32 xG
3rd 7:55TBLB. Point0.13 xG
3rd 15:28NJDP. Cotter0.27 xG
3rd 15:57TBLO. BjorkstrandPP0.22 xG

Team Stats

TBLNJD

35Shots on goal37

3.80Expected goals3.33

55Shot attempts63

275v5 shots on goal29

2/3Power play1/3

15Hits32

13Blocked shots13

11Penalty minutes11

7Giveaways14

2Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

TBL 3.80 xGNJD 3.33 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

TBL35 on goal, 8 scored

NJD36 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

TBL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Kucherov	RW	0	4	4	4	0	0	+2	0	16:12	2:27
J. Guentzel	C	1	2	3	2	0	1	+1	0	15:22	2:03
O. Bjorkstrand	RW	2	1	3	3	1	0	0	0	13:47	1:57
B. Hagel	LW	1	1	2	4	1	2	+2	0	16:55	0:24
B. Point	C	1	1	2	2	0	1	+1	0	15:27	1:59
Y. Gourde	C	0	1	1	1	1	1	+2	2	19:31	0:24
P. Holmberg	RW	1	0	1	2	0	0	+2	0	16:19	0:00
N. Paul	LW	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	12:38	0:24
S. Sabourin	RW	0	1	1	0	0	1	0	9	9:08	0:06
Z. Girgensons	C	0	0	0	0	3	1	+1	0	18:44	0:00
A. Cirelli	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	14:17	0:00
C. Douglas	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	9:48	0:00
D. Raddysh	D	1	1	2	1	2	1	+2	0	23:09	2:03
J. Moser	D	0	2	2	4	0	0	+2	0	20:49	0:04
D. Carlile	D	0	1	1	3	2	0	+2	0	16:04	0:00
C. D'Astous	D	0	0	0	3	2	0	-1	0	20:59	0:24
E. Lilleberg	D	0	0	0	1	3	2	+1	0	19:23	0:00
M. Crozier	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	17:12	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Johansson	37	33	4	.892	59:22	Win
B. Halverson	0	0	0	–	0:00

NJD Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
P. Cotter	LW	1	1	2	3	6	0	0	0	14:04	0:00
J. Bratt	LW	1	0	1	4	3	0	-1	0	16:46	3:44
S. Noesen	RW	0	1	1	5	1	0	-2	0	15:59	3:46
C. Glass	C	0	1	1	3	1	0	0	0	15:46	0:00
A. Crookshank	C	1	0	1	3	1	0	+1	0	10:24	0:00
A. Gritsyuk	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	19:44	3:41
C. Brown	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	19:20	0:48
N. Hischier	C	0	0	0	3	2	1	-2	2	17:21	3:46
D. Mercer	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	16:45	0:51
O. Palat	LW	0	0	0	2	4	3	-1	2	14:43	0:44
L. Glendening	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	10:16	0:00
X. Parent	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	9:42	0:00
L. Hughes	D	1	1	2	1	0	1	0	0	23:52	1:04
S. Nemec	D	0	2	2	3	1	1	-2	2	20:52	3:28
B. Dillon	D	0	1	1	0	4	3	0	5	19:37	0:00
C. White	D	0	1	1	1	4	2	0	0	14:46	0:00
D. Hamilton	D	0	0	0	4	1	0	-2	0	19:53	0:48
J. Siegenthaler	D	0	0	0	4	2	1	-2	0	17:23	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Markstrom	7	4	3	.571	7:56
J. Allen	28	23	5	.821	52:02	Loss

Lines at 5-on-5

TBL

Line 1Y. Gourde17:06Z. Girgensons17:22P. Holmberg15:41

Line 2J. Guentzel12:35B. Point13:06O. Bjorkstrand11:37

Line 3A. Cirelli11:41B. Hagel13:18N. Kucherov12:56

Line 4N. Paul11:39C. Douglas9:48S. Sabourin9:02

Pair 1D. Raddysh19:30J. Moser17:40

Pair 2C. D'Astous18:49E. Lilleberg16:18

Pair 3D. Carlile15:26M. Crozier16:21

NJD

Line 1C. Brown17:36A. Gritsyuk16:01C. Glass14:40

Line 2O. Palat13:35D. Mercer15:10P. Cotter13:22

Line 3J. Bratt11:45N. Hischier12:50S. Noesen11:35

Line 4A. Crookshank10:22X. Parent9:40L. Glendening9:15

Pair 1B. Dillon17:14L. Hughes20:25

Pair 2J. Siegenthaler16:59D. Hamilton18:03

Pair 3S. Nemec16:41C. White14:42

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	TBL 3.1, NJD 2.8	TBL 8, NJD 4
Total goals	5.9	12
Shots on goal	TBL 27.0, NJD 27.9	TBL 35, NJD 37
Win chance	TBL 56%	TBL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
TBL N. Kucherov	3.1	4	1.44	4	35%	0
NJD D. Hamilton	2.8	4	0.49	0	14%	0
TBL J. Guentzel	2.7	2	0.97	3	37%	1
TBL B. Hagel	2.4	4	0.82	2	29%	1
NJD J. Bratt	2.4	4	0.89	1	25%	1
NJD N. Hischier	2.4	3	0.82	0	30%	0
NJD A. Gritsyuk	2.3	0	0.46	0	18%	0
TBL D. Raddysh	2.2	1	0.69	2	11%	1
TBL B. Point	2.2	2	0.84	2	34%	1
NJD L. Hughes	2.1	1	0.45	2	7%	1
NJD D. Mercer	1.9	1	0.51	0	24%	0
TBL A. Cirelli	1.8	1	0.58	0	23%	0
TBL N. Paul	1.7	2	0.46	1	21%	1
TBL O. Bjorkstrand	1.7	3	0.53	3	20%	2
NJD S. Nemec	1.6	3	0.40	2	12%	0
NJD C. Glass	1.5	3	0.30	1	13%	0
NJD C. Brown	1.5	0	0.39	0	15%	0
TBL M. Crozier	1.4	1	0.19	0	2%	0
TBL Y. Gourde	1.4	1	0.42	1	15%	0
TBL C. D'Astous	1.4	3	0.39	0	9%	0
NJD S. Noesen	1.4	5	0.31	1	15%	0
TBL Z. Girgensons	1.3	0	0.19	0	12%	0
NJD O. Palat	1.1	2	0.32	0	14%	0
TBL J. Moser	1.1	4	0.28	2	5%	0
NJD A. Crookshank	1.1	3	0.17	1	9%	1
TBL P. Holmberg	1.1	2	0.27	1	11%	1
NJD J. Siegenthaler	1.0	4	0.14	0	3%	0
NJD P. Cotter	1.0	3	0.22	2	12%	1
TBL E. Lilleberg	0.9	1	0.26	0	3%	0
TBL S. Sabourin	0.9	0	0.25	1	9%	0
NJD B. Dillon	0.8	0	0.20	1	5%	0
TBL D. Carlile	0.7	3	0.16	1	6%	0
NJD L. Glendening	0.6	0	0.11	0	7%	0
TBL C. Douglas	0.6	1	0.10	0	4%	0
NJD C. White	0.6	1	0.10	1	1%	0

Shots on goal: 17 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.5 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.