Game Recap: TBL 3, NSH 2 (OT), November 29, 2024

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Game Recap

TBL3

Final/OTFri, Nov 29, 2024Every game that night

NSH2

TBL beat NSH 3-2 in overtime, with the chances close: 2.57 expected goals to 2.07. R. Josi led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). L. Schenn had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.1. J. Johansson stopped 29 of 31.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
TBL	0	2	0	1	3
NSH	1	1	0	0	2

1st 1:23NSHR. Josi0.01 xG
2nd 4:06TBLA. CirelliSH0.11 xG
2nd 8:18TBLB. Hagel0.06 xG
2nd 11:20NSHR. Josi0.15 xG
OT 1:01TBLB. PointPP0.11 xG

Team Stats

TBLNSH

28Shots on goal31

2.57Expected goals2.07

67Shot attempts60

225v5 shots on goal26

1/4Power play0/2

28Hits39

12Blocked shots20

6Penalty minutes8

23Giveaways23

3Takeaways9

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

TBL 2.57 xGNSH 2.07 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

TBL28 on goal, 3 scored

NSH30 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

TBL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Point	C	1	0	1	3	0	1	-1	0	23:34	4:50
B. Hagel	LW	1	0	1	2	0	0	+1	0	22:53	4:14
A. Cirelli	C	1	0	1	3	0	3	+1	0	17:13	1:51
N. Kucherov	RW	0	1	1	2	0	0	-1	0	16:39	3:44
L. Glendening	C	0	1	1	0	0	1	0	0	15:34	0:06
J. Guentzel	C	0	0	0	3	3	0	0	0	21:56	4:46
G. Goncalves	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	+1	0	15:45	1:00
Z. Girgensons	C	0	0	0	0	5	0	-1	0	14:42	0:00
M. Eyssimont	C	0	0	0	2	3	2	-1	2	14:24	0:19
C. Geekie	C	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	13:42	1:02
C. Atkinson	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	7:19	0:57
V. Hedman	D	0	1	1	4	3	3	+1	0	21:27	4:22
D. Raddysh	D	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	14:56	1:32
R. McDonagh	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	2	19:22	0:05
E. Cernak	D	0	0	0	1	5	1	+1	0	19:11	0:07
J. Moser	D	0	0	0	1	3	0	-1	2	15:36	0:00
N. Perbix	D	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	0	13:12	0:00
E. Lilleberg	D	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	0	11:58	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Johansson	31	29	2	.935	61:01	Win
M. Tomkins	0	0	0	–	0:00

NSH Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
S. Stamkos	C	0	1	1	0	4	2	0	4	16:23	2:30
L. Evangelista	RW	0	1	1	3	0	0	+1	0	12:49	1:01
M. Jankowski	LW	0	1	1	1	1	2	+1	0	12:16	0:00
F. Forsberg	LW	0	0	0	4	3	0	-1	2	19:58	2:30
R. O'Reilly	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	19:26	2:30
G. Nyquist	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	17:04	0:52
J. Marchessault	RW	0	0	0	1	5	0	+1	2	16:39	2:39
C. Sissons	C	0	0	0	1	3	2	-1	0	13:58	0:00
F. Svechkov	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	+1	0	13:26	1:01
C. Smith	RW	0	0	0	1	8	0	-1	0	13:11	0:00
T. Novak	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	0	12:27	1:01
Z. L'Heureux	LW	0	0	0	0	5	0	-1	0	11:31	0:00
R. Josi	D	2	0	2	4	0	4	0	0	25:38	2:30
A. Carrier	D	0	0	0	2	3	4	+1	0	23:14	0:00
B. Skjei	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	0	22:06	1:01
L. Schenn	D	0	0	0	4	3	1	0	0	16:08	0:00
A. Wilsby	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	15:31	0:00
N. Blankenburg	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	15:18	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Saros	28	25	3	.893	61:01	OT loss
S. Wedgewood	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamSteven Stamkos NSH Faces TBL, his team until Apr 20241 A, 0 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	TBL 3.2, NSH 3.2	TBL 3, NSH 2
Total goals	6.3	5
Shots on goal	TBL 28.4, NSH 30.8	TBL 28, NSH 31
Win chance	TBL 50%	TBL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NSH F. Forsberg	3.6	4	1.05	0	39%	0
TBL N. Kucherov	3.4	2	1.48	1	34%	0
NSH R. Josi	3.1	4	0.98	2	23%	2
NSH J. Marchessault	3.1	1	0.81	0	33%	0
TBL J. Guentzel	3.0	3	0.97	0	34%	0
NSH S. Stamkos	2.7	0	0.92	1	35%	0
TBL B. Hagel	2.5	2	0.94	1	30%	1
TBL B. Point	2.4	3	0.94	1	37%	1
NSH B. Skjei	2.1	2	0.52	0	13%	0
TBL V. Hedman	2.0	4	0.77	1	14%	0
NSH L. Evangelista	1.8	3	0.42	1	16%	0
NSH R. O'Reilly	1.8	0	0.74	0	25%	0
TBL A. Cirelli	1.8	3	0.64	1	22%	1
TBL M. Eyssimont	1.7	2	0.23	0	10%	0
NSH T. Novak	1.6	1	0.60	0	21%	0
NSH G. Nyquist	1.6	2	0.76	0	22%	0
TBL C. Atkinson	1.4	1	0.26	0	12%	0
TBL C. Geekie	1.3	1	0.31	0	14%	0
NSH M. Jankowski	1.2	1	0.34	1	14%	0
NSH L. Schenn	1.1	4	0.16	0	5%	0
NSH A. Carrier	1.1	2	0.31	0	6%	0
NSH C. Smith	1.1	1	0.25	0	10%	0
NSH C. Sissons	1.1	1	0.30	0	12%	0
TBL Z. Girgensons	1.1	0	0.19	0	10%	0
NSH Z. L'Heureux	1.0	0	0.30	0	12%	0
NSH N. Blankenburg	1.0	1	0.26	0	7%	0
TBL D. Raddysh	1.0	1	0.28	1	6%	0
TBL R. McDonagh	0.9	0	0.30	0	4%	0
TBL G. Goncalves	0.9	0	0.21	0	11%	0
TBL J. Moser	0.9	1	0.31	0	7%	0
TBL N. Perbix	0.9	2	0.25	0	5%	0
TBL L. Glendening	0.8	0	0.11	1	8%	0
TBL E. Cernak	0.7	1	0.20	0	3%	0
TBL E. Lilleberg	0.6	2	0.16	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 22 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.