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Game Recap
TBL4
NSH5
NSH beat TBL 5-4 in a shootout, and the chances backed it up: 4.15 expected goals to 2.93. N. Kucherov led the way with 3 points (0 G, 3 A). S. Stamkos had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.4. J. Annunen stopped 22 of 26.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | SO | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| NSH | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 |
- 1st 11:14NSHR. Schaefer0.11 xG
- 1st 13:38TBLJ. Carlson0.02 xG
- 2nd 0:18TBLJ. Guentzel0.07 xG
- 2nd 0:45NSHA. Edstrom0.16 xG
- 2nd 3:23TBLV. Hedman0.15 xG
- 2nd 19:42NSHJ. Struble0.03 xG
- 3rd 3:31TBLC. Geekie0.15 xG
- 3rd 7:27NSHS. StamkosPP0.32 xG
Team Stats
TBLNSH
26Shots on goal33
2.93Expected goals4.15
60Shot attempts74
185v5 shots on goal26
0/3Power play1/3
19Hits17
24Blocked shots15
6Penalty minutes6
11Giveaways9
3Takeaways2
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
TBL 2.93 xGNSH 4.15 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
TBL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Kucherov | RW | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 0 | 23:41 | 5:07 |
| J. Guentzel | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 25:56 | 5:00 |
| B. Point | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 4 | +3 | 0 | 23:10 | 4:51 |
| C. Geekie | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 10:02 | 1:09 |
| J. Viel | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 7:41 | 0:00 |
| B. Hagel | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 20:13 | 4:15 |
| A. Cirelli | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 18:33 | 1:42 |
| P. Holmberg | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 14:50 | 1:00 |
| I. Mikheyev | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13:44 | 0:00 |
| G. Goncalves | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 12:42 | 0:42 |
| D. James | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:40 | 0:00 |
| S. Sabourin | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 8:36 | 0:00 |
| J. Carlson | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 19:11 | 1:49 |
| C. D'Astous | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | +2 | 0 | 25:25 | 4:11 |
| V. Hedman | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 16:43 | 0:00 |
| J. Moser | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 22:17 | 0:14 |
| R. McDonagh | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 18:38 | 0:00 |
| M. Crozier | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 17:36 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Vasilevskiy | 33 | 29 | 4 | .879 | 65:00 | OT loss |
| D. Hildeby | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
NSH Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Forsberg | LW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 20:45 | 3:05 |
| A. Kerfoot | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:12 | 1:57 |
| R. O'Reilly | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 2 | 18:02 | 2:25 |
| A. Edstrom | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:15 | 0:00 |
| S. Stamkos | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 16:18 | 3:11 |
| R. Schaefer | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 12:02 | 0:00 |
| J. Drury | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 18:39 | 0:00 |
| J. Marchessault | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:18 | 2:27 |
| M. Bourque | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 13:43 | 1:55 |
| R. Colton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:38 | 0:55 |
| M. Wood | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:00 | 1:13 |
| N. Hoglander | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 10:10 | 0:00 |
| N. Perbix | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 18:02 | 0:16 |
| A. Wilsby | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 21:32 | 0:00 |
| B. Skjei | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 20:23 | 1:21 |
| J. Struble | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 17:31 | 0:00 |
| R. Josi | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 27:33 | 3:05 |
| D. Hunt | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 16:05 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Annunen | 26 | 22 | 4 | .846 | 64:52 | Win |
| J. Saros | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
TBL
Line 1J. Guentzel17:40B. Point17:02N. Kucherov17:20
Line 2A. Cirelli12:36B. Hagel12:24P. Holmberg12:57
Line 3I. Mikheyev11:28D. James10:16G. Goncalves11:03
Line 4S. Sabourin8:36C. Geekie8:53J. Viel7:41
Pair 1J. Carlson16:46C. D'Astous18:21
Pair 2R. McDonagh15:56J. Moser18:16
Pair 3M. Crozier15:59V. Hedman14:16
NSH
Line 1J. Drury16:08A. Edstrom13:41R. Colton12:07
Line 2R. O'Reilly11:30M. Bourque11:48S. Stamkos11:00
Line 3F. Forsberg15:02N. Hoglander10:10M. Wood11:28
Line 4J. Marchessault12:43A. Kerfoot12:35R. Schaefer10:14
Pair 2D. Hunt16:05J. Struble16:22
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
Prop Results
7 of 16 overs hit (44%).
| Player | Line | Over | Under | SOG | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL B. Hagel | 3.5 | +112 | -135 | 3 | Under |
| TBL B. Point | 2.5 | +125 | -140 | 3 | Over |
| NSH F. Forsberg | 2.5 | -144 | +120 | 2 | Under |
| TBL J. Guentzel | 2.5 | -125 | +105 | 3 | Over |
| TBL N. Kucherov | 2.5 | -150 | +120 | 1 | Under |
| NSH R. Josi | 2.5 | +128 | -155 | 5 | Over |
| NSH S. Stamkos | 2.5 | +130 | -160 | 6 | Over |
| TBL A. Cirelli | 1.5 | -110 | -111 | 0 | Under |
| TBL C. D'Astous | 1.5 | +100 | -125 | 0 | Under |
| TBL J. Carlson | 1.5 | -120 | -105 | 5 | Over |
| NSH J. Marchessault | 1.5 | -155 | +130 | 4 | Over |
| NSH M. Bourque | 1.5 | -120 | +105 | 1 | Under |
| NSH M. Wood | 1.5 | +115 | -125 | 1 | Under |
| TBL P. Holmberg | 1.5 | +105 | -115 | 1 | Under |
| NSH R. Colton | 1.5 | +110 | -135 | 2 | Over |
| NSH R. O'Reilly | 1.5 | -140 | +125 | 0 | Under |
6 of 31 overs hit (19%).
| Player | Line | Over | Under | G | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL A. Cirelli | 0.5 | +295 | -390 | 0 | Under |
| NSH A. Edstrom | 0.5 | +600 | -900 | 1 | Over |
| NSH A. Kerfoot | 0.5 | +550 | -1000 | 0 | Under |
| NSH A. Wilsby | 0.5 | +1500 | -4000 | 0 | Under |
| TBL B. Hagel | 0.5 | +160 | -190 | 0 | Under |
| TBL B. Point | 0.5 | +195 | -220 | 0 | Under |
| NSH B. Skjei | 0.5 | +1200 | -2000 | 0 | Under |
| TBL C. D'Astous | 0.5 | +600 | -900 | 0 | Under |
| TBL C. Geekie | 0.5 | +650 | -1000 | 1 | Over |
| TBL D. James | 0.5 | +500 | -900 | 0 | Under |
| NSH F. Forsberg | 0.5 | +195 | -250 | 0 | Under |
| TBL G. Goncalves | 0.5 | +400 | -750 | 0 | Under |
| TBL I. Mikheyev | 0.5 | +460 | -700 | 0 | Under |
| TBL J. Carlson | 0.5 | +550 | -1000 | 1 | Over |
| NSH J. Drury | 0.5 | +650 | -800 | 0 | Under |
| TBL J. Guentzel | 0.5 | +195 | -200 | 1 | Over |
| NSH J. Marchessault | 0.5 | +330 | -450 | 0 | Under |
| TBL J. Moser | 0.5 | +1000 | -2500 | 0 | Under |
| TBL J. Viel | 0.5 | +950 | -1600 | 0 | Under |
| NSH M. Bourque | 0.5 | +360 | -550 | 0 | Under |
| NSH M. Wood | 0.5 | +525 | -650 | 0 | Under |
| NSH N. Hoglander | 0.5 | +650 | -800 | 0 | Under |
| TBL N. Kucherov | 0.5 | +155 | -220 | 0 | Under |
| NSH N. Perbix | 0.5 | +2000 | -3500 | 0 | Under |
| TBL P. Holmberg | 0.5 | +500 | -700 | 0 | Under |
| NSH R. Colton | 0.5 | +525 | -750 | 0 | Under |
| NSH R. Josi | 0.5 | +550 | -900 | 0 | Under |
| TBL R. McDonagh | 0.5 | +1600 | -4000 | 0 | Under |
| NSH R. O'Reilly | 0.5 | +250 | -380 | 0 | Under |
| NSH S. Stamkos | 0.5 | +195 | -270 | 1 | Over |
| TBL V. Hedman | 0.5 | +850 | -2800 | 1 | Over |
6 of 15 overs hit (40%).
| Player | Line | Over | Under | A | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL A. Cirelli | 0.5 | +205 | -250 | 0 | Under |
| TBL B. Hagel | 0.5 | +125 | -150 | 0 | Under |
| TBL B. Point | 0.5 | +135 | -140 | 1 | Over |
| TBL C. D'Astous | 0.5 | +158 | -180 | 1 | Over |
| NSH F. Forsberg | 0.5 | +135 | -155 | 2 | Over |
| TBL J. Carlson | 0.5 | +180 | -220 | 1 | Over |
| TBL J. Guentzel | 0.5 | +120 | -150 | 0 | Under |
| NSH J. Marchessault | 0.5 | +215 | -260 | 0 | Under |
| NSH M. Bourque | 0.5 | +290 | -340 | 0 | Under |
| NSH M. Wood | 0.5 | +300 | -425 | 0 | Under |
| TBL N. Kucherov | 0.5 | -185 | +155 | 3 | Over |
| TBL P. Holmberg | 0.5 | +260 | -325 | 0 | Under |
| NSH R. Josi | 0.5 | +110 | -115 | 0 | Under |
| NSH R. O'Reilly | 0.5 | +132 | -165 | 1 | Over |
| NSH S. Stamkos | 0.5 | +155 | -205 | 0 | Under |
8 of 15 overs hit (53%).
| Player | Line | Over | Under | P | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL N. Kucherov | 1.5 | +130 | -155 | 3 | Over |
| TBL A. Cirelli | 0.5 | +105 | -130 | 0 | Under |
| TBL B. Hagel | 0.5 | -175 | +160 | 0 | Under |
| TBL B. Point | 0.5 | -170 | +135 | 1 | Over |
| TBL C. D'Astous | 0.5 | +120 | -125 | 1 | Over |
| NSH F. Forsberg | 0.5 | -150 | +130 | 2 | Over |
| TBL J. Carlson | 0.5 | +130 | -160 | 2 | Over |
| TBL J. Guentzel | 0.5 | -170 | +160 | 1 | Over |
| NSH J. Marchessault | 0.5 | +115 | -140 | 0 | Under |
| NSH M. Bourque | 0.5 | +140 | -170 | 0 | Under |
| NSH M. Wood | 0.5 | +180 | -190 | 0 | Under |
| TBL P. Holmberg | 0.5 | +160 | -180 | 0 | Under |
| NSH R. Josi | 0.5 | -120 | +120 | 0 | Under |
| NSH R. O'Reilly | 0.5 | -132 | +115 | 1 | Over |
| NSH S. Stamkos | 0.5 | -135 | +120 | 1 | Over |
3 of 17 overs hit (18%).
| Player | Line | Over | Under | PPP | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL A. Cirelli | 0.5 | +500 | -1600 | 0 | Under |
| TBL B. Hagel | 0.5 | +230 | -290 | 0 | Under |
| TBL B. Point | 0.5 | +270 | -325 | 0 | Under |
| NSH B. Skjei | 0.5 | +500 | -1600 | 0 | Under |
| TBL C. D'Astous | 0.5 | +360 | -375 | 0 | Under |
| TBL C. Geekie | 0.5 | +500 | -1600 | 0 | Under |
| NSH F. Forsberg | 0.5 | +220 | -260 | 1 | Over |
| TBL G. Goncalves | 0.5 | +500 | -1600 | 0 | Under |
| TBL J. Carlson | 0.5 | +400 | -1100 | 0 | Under |
| TBL J. Guentzel | 0.5 | +185 | -220 | 0 | Under |
| NSH J. Marchessault | 0.5 | +450 | -500 | 0 | Under |
| NSH M. Wood | 0.5 | +500 | -1600 | 0 | Under |
| TBL N. Kucherov | 0.5 | +135 | -150 | 0 | Under |
| TBL P. Holmberg | 0.5 | +500 | -1600 | 0 | Under |
| NSH R. Josi | 0.5 | +195 | -275 | 0 | Under |
| NSH R. O'Reilly | 0.5 | +250 | -350 | 1 | Over |
| NSH S. Stamkos | 0.5 | +220 | -300 | 1 | Over |
Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | TBL 3.6, NSH 2.8 | TBL 4, NSH 5 |
| Total goals | 6.4 | 9 |
| Shots on goal | TBL 29.4, NSH 25.3 | TBL 26, NSH 33 |
| Win chance | TBL 63% | NSH won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL B. Hagel | 3.1 | 3 | 1.01 | 0 | 34% | 0 |
| TBL N. Kucherov | 3.0 | 1 | 1.41 | 3 | 34% | 0 |
| TBL J. Guentzel | 2.9 | 3 | 1.06 | 1 | 37% | 1 |
| NSH F. Forsberg | 2.8 | 2 | 0.94 | 2 | 35% | 0 |
| NSH R. Josi | 2.5 | 5 | 0.78 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| NSH S. Stamkos | 2.4 | 6 | 0.83 | 1 | 35% | 1 |
| TBL B. Point | 2.3 | 3 | 0.95 | 1 | 35% | 0 |
| NSH M. Bourque | 2.0 | 1 | 0.51 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| NSH J. Marchessault | 1.9 | 4 | 0.60 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| NSH R. O'Reilly | 1.9 | 0 | 0.85 | 1 | 28% | 0 |
| NSH R. Colton | 1.8 | 2 | 0.39 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| TBL P. Holmberg | 1.7 | 1 | 0.46 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| TBL J. Carlson | 1.7 | 5 | 0.52 | 2 | 11% | 1 |
| TBL A. Cirelli | 1.7 | 0 | 0.66 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| TBL D. James | 1.6 | 1 | 0.40 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| TBL I. Mikheyev | 1.5 | 1 | 0.43 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| NSH J. Drury | 1.4 | 1 | 0.40 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| NSH A. Edstrom | 1.4 | 2 | 0.32 | 1 | 17% | 1 |
| TBL M. Crozier | 1.3 | 2 | 0.24 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| TBL C. D'Astous | 1.3 | 0 | 0.42 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| NSH M. Wood | 1.3 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| NSH N. Hoglander | 1.2 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| TBL G. Goncalves | 1.2 | 1 | 0.45 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| NSH A. Wilsby | 1.2 | 3 | 0.30 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| NSH B. Skjei | 1.2 | 0 | 0.33 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| NSH A. Kerfoot | 1.1 | 0 | 0.46 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| TBL J. Viel | 1.1 | 0 | 0.20 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| TBL C. Geekie | 1.1 | 1 | 0.27 | 1 | 13% | 1 |
| TBL V. Hedman | 1.1 | 2 | 0.38 | 1 | 7% | 1 |
| TBL J. Moser | 1.1 | 2 | 0.27 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| NSH R. Schaefer | 1.1 | 2 | 0.20 | 1 | 12% | 1 |
| NSH N. Perbix | 0.9 | 2 | 0.21 | 2 | 5% | 0 |
| TBL R. McDonagh | 0.8 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NSH D. Hunt | 0.8 | 1 | 0.15 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| NSH J. Struble | 0.5 | 1 | 0.16 | 1 | 4% | 1 |
| TBL S. Sabourin | 0.5 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.