TBL beat NYI 4-1, with the chances close: 3.77 expected goals to 3.29. J. Guentzel led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). T. DeAngelo had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.2. A. Vasilevskiy stopped 28 of 29.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| NYI | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
- 1st 8:46TBLO. Bjorkstrand0.10 xG
- 1st 10:57NYIB. HorvatSH0.14 xG
- 2nd 8:09TBLJ. Guentzel0.13 xG
- 2nd 10:41TBLV. Hedman0.25 xG
- 3rd 16:29TBLN. PaulEN0.87 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
TBL 3.77 xGNYI 3.29 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
TBL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Guentzel | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 21:30 | 5:34 |
| B. Point | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 19:11 | 5:32 |
| N. Kucherov | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:34 | 5:36 |
| N. Paul | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 17:56 | 0:15 |
| A. Cirelli | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 15:28 | 0:13 |
| O. Bjorkstrand | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 14:30 | 2:00 |
| B. Hagel | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 20:15 | 3:28 |
| Z. Girgensons | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:57 | 0:10 |
| Y. Gourde | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 12:03 | 0:00 |
| M. Chaffee | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 11:08 | 0:00 |
| G. Goncalves | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 10:26 | 0:04 |
| V. Hedman | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 23:10 | 4:39 |
| E. Cernak | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 18:34 | 0:12 |
| D. Raddysh | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 10:21 | 1:13 |
| R. McDonagh | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 18:07 | 0:19 |
| J. Moser | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 18:05 | 0:00 |
| E. Lilleberg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 2 | 14:01 | 0:00 |
| N. Perbix | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 11:44 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Vasilevskiy | 29 | 28 | 1 | .966 | 60:00 | Win |
| J. Johansson | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
NYI Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Horvat | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:37 | 4:18 |
| J. Pageau | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 18:04 | 1:18 |
| S. Holmstrom | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 16:50 | 1:25 |
| K. Palmieri | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 16:10 | 4:19 |
| A. Lee | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 14:38 | 4:12 |
| P. Engvall | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14:10 | 0:00 |
| C. Cizikas | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 13:08 | 0:00 |
| H. Fasching | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:04 | 0:00 |
| M. Tsyplakov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 12:22 | 1:07 |
| A. Duclair | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 12:15 | 0:13 |
| M. Gatcomb | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 10:34 | 0:00 |
| K. MacLean | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 10:33 | 0:00 |
| R. Pulock | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 20:50 | 1:06 |
| N. Dobson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 22:14 | 3:37 |
| T. DeAngelo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 20:50 | 4:34 |
| A. Pelech | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 20:43 | 0:00 |
| A. Romanov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 18:43 | 0:00 |
| A. Boqvist | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 16:41 | 2:01 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I. Sorokin | 23 | 20 | 3 | .870 | 59:34 | Loss |
| M. Hogberg | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | TBL 3.5, NYI 3.1 | TBL 4, NYI 1 |
| Total goals | 6.6 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | TBL 28.9, NYI 30.2 | TBL 24, NYI 29 |
| Win chance | TBL 55% | TBL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI B. Horvat | 3.0 | 5 | 0.71 | 1 | 31% | 1 |
| TBL N. Kucherov | 2.9 | 2 | 1.33 | 2 | 31% | 0 |
| TBL J. Guentzel | 2.7 | 3 | 0.93 | 2 | 35% | 1 |
| NYI A. Lee | 2.7 | 0 | 0.55 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| TBL B. Hagel | 2.4 | 2 | 0.89 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| TBL B. Point | 2.4 | 1 | 0.93 | 2 | 37% | 0 |
| NYI K. Palmieri | 2.4 | 4 | 0.64 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| NYI N. Dobson | 2.3 | 0 | 0.55 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| NYI T. DeAngelo | 2.2 | 5 | 0.58 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| TBL V. Hedman | 2.0 | 1 | 0.77 | 1 | 12% | 1 |
| TBL N. Paul | 1.8 | 4 | 0.49 | 1 | 22% | 1 |
| TBL A. Cirelli | 1.8 | 0 | 0.58 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| TBL O. Bjorkstrand | 1.7 | 2 | 0.51 | 1 | 19% | 1 |
| NYI A. Pelech | 1.6 | 2 | 0.32 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| NYI J. Pageau | 1.6 | 1 | 0.49 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| NYI P. Engvall | 1.5 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| TBL Y. Gourde | 1.5 | 2 | 0.50 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| NYI A. Duclair | 1.4 | 2 | 0.40 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| NYI S. Holmstrom | 1.3 | 0 | 0.47 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| NYI A. Romanov | 1.3 | 2 | 0.25 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| NYI R. Pulock | 1.2 | 1 | 0.28 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| TBL D. Raddysh | 1.2 | 2 | 0.38 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| NYI C. Cizikas | 1.2 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| NYI M. Tsyplakov | 1.2 | 1 | 0.35 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| NYI A. Boqvist | 1.1 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| TBL Z. Girgensons | 1.1 | 2 | 0.16 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| NYI H. Fasching | 1.0 | 3 | 0.23 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| TBL R. McDonagh | 1.0 | 0 | 0.36 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| TBL G. Goncalves | 1.0 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| NYI M. Gatcomb | 0.9 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| NYI K. MacLean | 0.9 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| TBL J. Moser | 0.9 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| TBL M. Chaffee | 0.9 | 2 | 0.21 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| TBL E. Cernak | 0.8 | 1 | 0.23 | 1 | 3% | 0 |
| TBL N. Perbix | 0.8 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| TBL E. Lilleberg | 0.7 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 1% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.