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Game Recap
TBL1
NYI2
NYI beat TBL 2-1 despite fewer good chances: 3.33 expected goals to 3.94. A. Cirelli had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.6. I. Sorokin stopped 30 of 31.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| NYI | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
- 2nd 0:55NYIB. Horvat0.16 xG
- 3rd 5:30NYIA. Duclair0.15 xG
- 3rd 16:26TBLD. James0.03 xG
Team Stats
TBLNYI
31Shots on goal24
3.94Expected goals3.33
74Shot attempts40
265v5 shots on goal22
0/3Power play0/3
14Hits19
7Blocked shots19
6Penalty minutes6
13Giveaways17
4Takeaways3
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
TBL 3.94 xGNYI 3.33 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
TBL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Paul | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 15:02 | 3:50 |
| D. James | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 11:32 | 2:10 |
| N. Kucherov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 26:35 | 5:56 |
| B. Hagel | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 24:16 | 2:33 |
| A. Cirelli | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 22:17 | 2:31 |
| J. Guentzel | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:31 | 3:29 |
| Y. Gourde | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:40 | 0:00 |
| Z. Girgensons | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 13:10 | 0:00 |
| O. Bjorkstrand | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:36 | 3:24 |
| P. Holmberg | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 10:23 | 0:00 |
| G. Goncalves | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 7:31 | 0:00 |
| C. Douglas | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4:27 | 0:00 |
| E. Lilleberg | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 18:54 | 0:00 |
| D. Raddysh | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 2 | 25:28 | 4:01 |
| J. Moser | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 22:48 | 0:04 |
| C. D'Astous | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:39 | 2:02 |
| D. Carlile | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:48 | 0:00 |
| S. Santini | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 10:43 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Vasilevskiy | 24 | 22 | 2 | .917 | 56:40 | Loss |
| J. Johansson | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
NYI Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Horvat | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 22:22 | 3:55 |
| C. Ritchie | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 2 | 14:38 | 2:23 |
| M. Shabanov | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:06 | 3:32 |
| A. Duclair | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 11:36 | 0:00 |
| S. Holmstrom | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 19:57 | 2:15 |
| E. Heineman | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 19:31 | 2:39 |
| M. Barzal | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:01 | 3:33 |
| J. Drouin | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:00 | 3:06 |
| A. Lee | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:53 | 2:15 |
| C. Cizikas | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 10:37 | 0:00 |
| K. MacLean | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 9:27 | 0:00 |
| M. Tsyplakov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 9:01 | 0:00 |
| T. DeAngelo | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 16:40 | 2:09 |
| A. Pelech | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 23:50 | 0:10 |
| M. Schaefer | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 21:21 | 3:52 |
| R. Pulock | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 20:39 | 0:11 |
| S. Mayfield | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 19:23 | 0:00 |
| T. Mitchell | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:58 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I. Sorokin | 31 | 30 | 1 | .968 | 60:00 | Win |
| D. Rittich | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
TBL
Line 1N. Kucherov17:08A. Cirelli14:29B. Hagel14:40
Line 2Y. Gourde12:24Z. Girgensons11:02P. Holmberg10:23
Line 3J. Guentzel13:51N. Paul10:18O. Bjorkstrand8:12
Line 4D. James9:22G. Goncalves7:31C. Douglas4:27
Pair 1D. Raddysh16:40J. Moser19:03
Pair 2C. D'Astous14:06E. Lilleberg15:13
Pair 3S. Santini10:35D. Carlile13:56
NYI
Line 2S. Holmstrom12:08C. Ritchie12:15A. Duclair11:36
Line 3B. Horvat12:19E. Heineman11:31M. Shabanov10:34
Line 4K. MacLean9:27M. Tsyplakov9:01C. Cizikas8:20
Pair 1A. Pelech17:29T. DeAngelo14:31
Pair 2M. Schaefer15:03R. Pulock14:39
Pair 3S. Mayfield15:47T. Mitchell11:58
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | TBL 3.0, NYI 2.9 | TBL 1, NYI 2 |
| Total goals | 5.9 | 3 |
| Shots on goal | TBL 25.6, NYI 29.4 | TBL 31, NYI 24 |
| Win chance | TBL 52% | NYI won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI B. Horvat | 3.2 | 3 | 0.80 | 1 | 34% | 1 |
| NYI M. Barzal | 2.9 | 3 | 0.93 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| TBL N. Kucherov | 2.8 | 1 | 1.37 | 0 | 33% | 0 |
| NYI M. Schaefer | 2.8 | 1 | 0.61 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| NYI A. Lee | 2.7 | 0 | 0.56 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| TBL J. Guentzel | 2.6 | 1 | 0.97 | 0 | 36% | 0 |
| TBL B. Hagel | 2.4 | 0 | 0.84 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| TBL D. Raddysh | 1.9 | 3 | 0.62 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| TBL N. Paul | 1.8 | 4 | 0.52 | 1 | 23% | 0 |
| NYI T. DeAngelo | 1.8 | 1 | 0.40 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| TBL O. Bjorkstrand | 1.7 | 2 | 0.56 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| NYI E. Heineman | 1.7 | 0 | 0.46 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| TBL A. Cirelli | 1.6 | 6 | 0.59 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| NYI M. Shabanov | 1.6 | 2 | 0.45 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| NYI A. Pelech | 1.5 | 5 | 0.25 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| NYI J. Drouin | 1.5 | 0 | 0.64 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| TBL Y. Gourde | 1.5 | 2 | 0.47 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| NYI C. Ritchie | 1.4 | 2 | 0.23 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| NYI R. Pulock | 1.3 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| TBL Z. Girgensons | 1.3 | 2 | 0.22 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| NYI S. Holmstrom | 1.1 | 2 | 0.42 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| TBL J. Moser | 1.1 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NYI A. Duclair | 1.1 | 1 | 0.30 | 1 | 16% | 1 |
| TBL D. James | 1.1 | 1 | 0.28 | 1 | 11% | 1 |
| TBL P. Holmberg | 1.1 | 2 | 0.29 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| TBL C. D'Astous | 0.9 | 1 | 0.39 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| NYI M. Tsyplakov | 0.9 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| NYI S. Mayfield | 0.9 | 3 | 0.15 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| NYI C. Cizikas | 0.8 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| TBL E. Lilleberg | 0.8 | 1 | 0.26 | 1 | 3% | 0 |
| TBL G. Goncalves | 0.8 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| NYI K. MacLean | 0.8 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| TBL S. Santini | 0.7 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| TBL D. Carlile | 0.5 | 2 | 0.17 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| TBL C. Douglas | 0.5 | 1 | 0.11 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 21 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.